2014 Aug 2nd COE Bidding Exercise

[Enye]

 

so... you also saying "cheap cheap"??

 

 

Btw, congrats

 

if an arm and a leg plus a kidney is considered cheap, then yes

 

thanks

 

[darth_vader_]

the more cars are scrapped the higher coe will go up.

[Waterh2o]

Yes the more cars are scrapped COE will go up or stay at current level at best with all things being equal....unless COE numbers are increased. Demand same supply never change how to come down.

 

The only time demand for cars will come down is during an economic crisis.

 

So more cars deregistered leads to more COE numbers by LTA as the ST articule would want u to believe.

[Quantum]

Would next round of COE drop due to the news report?

 

The number of cars deregistered last month was the highest in recent years, based on the latest official data.

This, according to industry watchers, is a sure sign that the next certificate of entitlement(COE) quota (November to January) will be a sizeable one - estimated to be double the supply last Christmas.

COE quotas are determined largely by the number of vehicles scrapped in the preceding three-month period.

Last month, 2,724 cars were deregistered - the highest monthly figure in over three years.

Figures for the following few months are likely to be similar, if not higher.

This is because cars bought between 2004 and 2008 - when the most number of COEs were available - are reaching the end of their 10-year lifespan.

SIM University urban transport management expert Park Byung Joon said "it is reasonable to expect the deregistration figure to continue rising until 2018".

And that would "definitely lead to a long-term downward trend" for COE premiums.

He ventured that premiums for cars will dip below $60,000 next year, and "as low as $45,000" in the next three years or so.

COEs for cars are currently in the mid- to high $60,000s.

Dr Park said prices are unlikely to return to the previous lows witnessed in 2006 and 2007, when they fell below $20,000.

"It is not just because Singapore has (a bigger) population now. More importantly, Singapore has more money now."

The imminent deluge of deregistrations poses one challenge though - providing sufficient facilities to store deregistered cars before they are re-exported to countries where second-hand vehicles are in demand.

The number of export processing zones (EPZs), which are gated to ensure deregistered cars are not used on Singapore roads while awaiting re-export, has dwindled from a high of 12 to only two.

The slowdown in deregistrations after 2008 forced many players to close down.

The Straits Times understands that the Land Transport Authority (LTA) is nudging motor companies to start up more EPZs - something which it did during the last deregistration boom.

But companies are cautious, recalling the roller-coaster nature of the business.

Mr Neo Nam Heng, president of the Automobile Importer and Exporter Association, said: "In 2003, land rental was three times less than what it is today.

"We've proposed to the LTA to reduce some of the requirements for operating an EPZ."

For instance, one suggestion is to have the minimum capacity of 400 cars halved to 200.

An LTA spokesman said the authority is considering some feedback it received during a regular meeting with the industry.

Good News

Last month, 2,724 cars were deregistered - the highest monthly figure in over three years, it is reasonable to expect the deregistration figure to continue rising until 2018,

Bad News

prices are unlikely to return to the previous lows witnessed in 2006 and 2007, when they fell below $20,000.

Which one you believe?

[Watwheels]

Wait for LTA to make the official announcement . This editor is giving ppl false hope. So what if the last month's deregistration is high? LTA still have the ultimate say when it comes to releasing of quota.

Edited August 21, 2014 by Watwheels

[Hybridcar]

Wait for LTA to make the official announcement . This editor is giving ppl false hope. So what if the last month's deregistration is high? LTA still have the ultimate say when it comes to releasing of quota.

 

agree... LTA can give all sort of reasons for not releasing back all the deregistered car...

[Turtlekar]

How come nobody is taking notice of the brands that is coming in, and start screaming COE will be coming down?

 

I do agree that a lot of cars will be de-registered in 2005 - 2008, but has ppl really start seeing the type of models/ car brand that is coming into Singapore??? LTA is also trickling on the growth of car population.

 

I really wonder with 2015 coming, will the COE really be coming down...Simple analogy....

 

Mercedes used to have 3 main model as their workhorse, E/ S and at most SEL. Now they are bringing in A/B/C/E/GLA/CLA/SL/CLS/R/SLK/SLS, and this does not include the AMG models....

 

BMW used to have 3 main models as well, 3/5/7 series....Now, they have 1/2/3/4/5/6/7/X1/X3/X5. Does not include Mseries.....

 

We have other big brands with a lot more models....Jaguar just recently launch the CX17, and Porsche is coming out with the Mecan.....

 

And nowsaday to see a Ferrari/ Lamboghini on the road is easy as A-B-C. I remember during 80s/90s, to see a Ferrari is like WOW....That's a Ferrari....

 

Latest news as well, Mustang is coming in on Right Hand Drive....That will be definitely a hit on the shore very soon....

 

So think about it, do u think COE will really be coming down? I guess likelihood is that next time you will only see supercars and big brands on the road...

 

For those Japanese/ Korean/ China/ Malayisa, I will say it will become a minority very soon...

 

Mazda current model is also struggling...Where is Mitsubishi new launch car? Toyota Altis (Used to be Corolla) is struggling with sales...What about the once infamous Type R Civic? ........Now I really feel Singapore is the wealthiest country....

[Quantum]

Wait for LTA to make the official announcement . This editor is giving ppl false hope. So what if the last month's deregistration is high? LTA still have the ultimate say when it comes to releasing of quota.

agreed! LAT always use Last month deregistered number to mislead buyers thought future will be better, keep waiting and waiting, in the end find it's foolish, the accumulated orders push COE further high,

now a lot ppl regreted why didn't buy month ago

[Wt_know]

u did not mention VW & Audi .... from 1.2T 1.4T 1.6T 1.8T 2.0T 3.0T .... does not include S and RS models

 

How come nobody is taking notice of the brands that is coming in, and start screaming COE will be coming down?

 

I do agree that a lot of cars will be de-registered in 2005 - 2008, but has ppl really start seeing the type of models/ car brand that is coming into Singapore??? LTA is also trickling on the growth of car population.

 

I really wonder with 2015 coming, will the COE really be coming down...Simple analogy....

 

Mercedes used to have 3 main model as their workhorse, E/ S and at most SEL. Now they are bringing in A/B/C/E/GLA/CLA/SL/CLS/R/SLK/SLS, and this does not include the AMG models....

 

BMW used to have 3 main models as well, 3/5/7 series....Now, they have 1/2/3/4/5/6/7/X1/X3/X5. Does not include Mseries.....

 

We have other big brands with a lot more models....Jaguar just recently launch the CX17, and Porsche is coming out with the Mecan.....

 

And nowsaday to see a Ferrari/ Lamboghini on the road is easy as A-B-C. I remember during 80s/90s, to see a Ferrari is like WOW....That's a Ferrari....

 

Latest news as well, Mustang is coming in on Right Hand Drive....That will be definitely a hit on the shore very soon....

 

So think about it, do u think COE will really be coming down? I guess likelihood is that next time you will only see supercars and big brands on the road...

 

For those Japanese/ Korean/ China/ Malayisa, I will say it will become a minority very soon...

 

Mazda current model is also struggling...Where is Mitsubishi new launch car? Toyota Altis (Used to be Corolla) is struggling with sales...What about the once infamous Type R Civic? ........Now I really feel Singapore is the wealthiest country....

 

Edited August 21, 2014 by Wt_know

[L23]

How come my beloved Myvi is not mentioned in your list?

 

 

How come nobody is taking notice of the brands that is coming in, and start screaming COE will be coming down?

 

I do agree that a lot of cars will be de-registered in 2005 - 2008, but has ppl really start seeing the type of models/ car brand that is coming into Singapore??? LTA is also trickling on the growth of car population.

 

I really wonder with 2015 coming, will the COE really be coming down...Simple analogy....

 

Mercedes used to have 3 main model as their workhorse, E/ S and at most SEL. Now they are bringing in A/B/C/E/GLA/CLA/SL/CLS/R/SLK/SLS, and this does not include the AMG models....

 

BMW used to have 3 main models as well, 3/5/7 series....Now, they have 1/2/3/4/5/6/7/X1/X3/X5. Does not include Mseries.....

 

We have other big brands with a lot more models....Jaguar just recently launch the CX17, and Porsche is coming out with the Mecan.....

 

And nowsaday to see a Ferrari/ Lamboghini on the road is easy as A-B-C. I remember during 80s/90s, to see a Ferrari is like WOW....That's a Ferrari....

 

Latest news as well, Mustang is coming in on Right Hand Drive....That will be definitely a hit on the shore very soon....

 

So think about it, do u think COE will really be coming down? I guess likelihood is that next time you will only see supercars and big brands on the road...

 

For those Japanese/ Korean/ China/ Malayisa, I will say it will become a minority very soon...

 

Mazda current model is also struggling...Where is Mitsubishi new launch car? Toyota Altis (Used to be Corolla) is struggling with sales...What about the once infamous Type R Civic? ........Now I really feel Singapore is the wealthiest country....

 

[Dafansu]

Good News

Last month, 2,724 cars were deregistered - the highest monthly figure in over three years, it is reasonable to expect the deregistration figure to continue rising until 2018,

Bad News

prices are unlikely to return to the previous lows witnessed in 2006 and 2007, when they fell below $20,000.

Which one you believe?

how about the 6.9 million population. This will definitely cause the COE to go up

[Quantum]

how about the 6.9 million population. This will definitely cause the COE to go up

never mind, about 1/3 of 6.9 million population are FTs, they are not so fool to buy Singapore car which 1/3 price can buy the same in their home town

[yo2020]

even if LTA reserved some (eg. 15%) for dry season, there will still b plenty of COE to b recycled soon.

if u look closely to the mthly figures in the link below, the current dereg of 2400-2700 per mth shld increase to 4000-5000 in abt 6 mths' time.

by then, the COE Premium remains high or not will depend v much on the number of willing buyers with plenty of cash.

Source: M01-03M-Age.pdf

[Lincoln]

All Cats up again, except Goods Veh Cat.

 

To be honest, I'm surprised to see that COE price is going up for the last 4 bids despite the bumper supply in the near future. We bound to have very anxious car buyers who simply do not have the time to wait for that to materialize. So, to those anxious ones out there, please buy your car NOW. And yes, for those who bought recently, congratulations. For those who believe COE cant drop in the future, please also buy now. Otherwise, if price really never drop, you will hate yourself for waiting in vain.

 

I'm happy to be the one waiting to take my turn later in 2015. Hopefully by then, all the rich anxious ones have exhausted their ammunition earlier.

Edited August 21, 2014 by Lincoln

[Ahgong]

erm... when the blue moon rises?

 

 

then after Ghost month, another orders tsunami will come, GOD, when will COE drop?

 

[Enye]

even if LTA reserved some (eg. 15%) for dry season, there will still b plenty of COE to b recycled soon.

if u look closely to the mthly figures in the link below, the current dereg of 2400-2700 per mth shld increase to 4000-5000 in abt 6 mths' time.

by then, the COE Premium remains high or not will depend v much on the number of willing buyers with plenty of cash.

Source: M01-03M-Age.pdf

 

looking at the chart i see

 

Currently 4000+ owners chasing after 2000plus COEs every month

 

1 year later, 9000 owners chasing after 5000 COEs every month

 

unless a significant proportion of current car owners scrap their cars first and wait for COEs to be recycled back into the system then start booking their cars

 

this means that they have to go without cars for at least 6 months to 1 year

 

possible?

 

[Enye]

never mind, about 1/3 of 6.9 million population are FTs, they are not so fool to buy Singapore car which 1/3 price can buy the same in their home town

 

I think you are mistaken about the FT car buying population here

 

when I was bargaining with the SE serving me for further price discounts

 

another AT family booked theirs at 10k above my eventual buy price without any hesitation at the next table

[Hybridcar]

 

To be honest, I'm surprised to see that COE price is going up for the last 4 bids despite the bumper supply in the near future. We bound to have very anxious car buyers who simply do not have the time to wait for that to materialize. So, to those anxious ones out there, please buy your car NOW. And yes, for those who bought recently, congratulations. For those who believe COE cant drop in the future, please also buy now. Otherwise, if price really never drop, you will hate yourself for waiting in vain.

 

I'm happy to be the one waiting to take my turn later in 2015. Hopefully by then, all the rich anxious ones have exhausted their ammunition earlier.

 

I'm one who is "anxious" maybe? or not really. I rather say no one know what will happen in future..

 

Many years ago a lot people think $15000 for a piece of COE is very expensive/costly because before that they seen COE which cost only few thousands..

 

And when the COE is few thousands, people also think it is very expensive, because they seen few hundreds a piece before...

 

So, is there a right time to buy a car? I myself also not sure.. But I'm quite sure those cash rich ones (not me) will never exhausted their ammunition... Just check out the new Mercedes C class forum here...

 

some think the 1st Sept Bidding Exercise may come down a bit... maybe...

 

just my personal view

 

looking at the chart i see

 

Currently 4000+ owners chasing after 2000plus COEs every month

 

1 year later, 9000 owners chasing after 5000 COEs every month

 

unless a significant proportion of current car owners scrap their cars first and wait for COEs to be recycled back into the system then start booking their cars

 

this means that they have to go without cars for at least 6 months to 1 year

 

possible?

 

 

I also notice when quota is at 300+ for Cat A for each round... 500+ bid for the COE..

 

When now we have 500+ quota... and there is around 1000+ people bid..

 

So, when those deregistered one are to be reallocate by LTA.. will there be 2000+ people bid for 1000+ quota??

 

hmm...