2015 Mar, 2nd COE Bidding Exercise

[bhslee]

cbljnnp...sigh!

[Simplecar]

Haha his Coe expiring next month but he say he considering to buy a 8yr old plus car and wait for Coe to drop next yr then buy. He predict that Coe will be hovering at 25-30k level sometime in 2016

 

See my post above. Coe expiring next month. He intend to buy a cheap old car now and wait for Coe to drop further.

my friend just replaced his Nissan with a 8 yo Nissan because he felt the same and believed that COEs then will be much cheaper.

 

Good for him. i'd rather COEs remain at this level all through the years so that we all have equal misery/joy.

 

[AaronLow]

"but lets say the AE revise the limit to 61411, your friend will get the car"

even if revised limit to 61411 not necessary will sure get it.

this is bcoz 61410 is not representing the lowest bid amt.

instead, 61410 is simply the highest failed bid plus $1. ;)

 

What you say is partially true. But have u tried looking at the live bidding process. min bid is 1 dollar. you can set your limit. so since the previous failed bid is 61409, that means if the number of ppl within the quota will get the coe at atlease 61410. If you notice, the 1st bid of march, there is 1 balance coe. so if only his AE revise the bid to 61411 for him then he would have gotten the coe. Reason being he will still be in the quota.

[Forte3737]

Seriously

 

You really think so?

yo! May estimation revised to 1500. you got insider news?

 

 

[evidence]

 

I booked the CNY Wish originally under non-guaranteed COE. After I missed the first bid I considered again and changed my package to guaranteed COE using my trade in car. 2.5k topup. The trade in dealer linked by by sales lady offered quite ok price for my 8.5 year old ride so that swung the choice.

 

Got my COE today. Very happy with the high paper value (yes sounds stupid but this will protect downside 3 years down the road).

 

I think BM offered a decent deal in this CNY pricing case (very odd - maybe they misjudged the COE market/demand/or have to push sales for this model). 123.5k for Elegance model, and 2.5k extra for topup to guaranteed for those with car to trade in. And no chow kuan nonsense like only paper value for my trade in car etc.

t

 

Congrats to u.....

[kingfisher1688]

From the way things are progressing, the pent up demand is still very strong and is unlikely to go away anytime soon. Unfortunately, any drop in price will attract more people rushing in to buy cars.

 

Thus, we can only rely on owners who will give up driving for good once their car expires so as to channel back this additional quota back into the market to quickly fulfil those pent up demand.

 

The problem is no one wants to give up their drive unless they are forced out of the COE game.

Even with the Tsunami supply coming soon, as long as would be ex-owners are unwilling to give up their drive, high COEs will still continue.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 18, 2015 by kingfisher1688

[subarudreamer]

that's very wise of u to secure one with a small top up. in this case, u approached the SE and not the other way round? SE didn't ask for top up?

 

 

 

I booked the CNY Wish originally under non-guaranteed COE. After I missed the first bid I considered again and changed my package to guaranteed COE using my trade in car. 2.5k topup. The trade in dealer linked by by sales lady offered quite ok price for my 8.5 year old ride so that swung the choice.

 

Got my COE today. Very happy with the high paper value (yes sounds stupid but this will protect downside 3 years down the road).

 

I think BM offered a decent deal in this CNY pricing case (very odd - maybe they misjudged the COE market/demand/or have to push sales for this model). 123.5k for Elegance model, and 2.5k extra for topup to guaranteed for those with car to trade in. And no chow kuan nonsense like only paper value for my trade in car etc.

 

[Ucypmas]

that's very wise of u to secure one with a small top up. in this case, u approached the SE and not the other way round? SE didn't ask for top up?

 

No BM did not ask me to top up. Maybe they make so little money they no longer want to take the risk of carrying my order on guaranteed basis - especially when COE was trending back up. They did bid quite high the first time but missed by $900+. For me when I looked at the demand then there was little chance of getting the car unless the May quota revision takes Cat B to less than 67k, which is roughly where they put in the bid for my COE the first time.

 

So I decided that since the car price is already very low and fixed, no point to take further chance (on COE and on current car mechanical failure / road tax etc) and delay - so just lock in the maximum possible paper value for the car for a small incremental cost. At that point, I don't think they can reject me "upgrading" - also I get the sense they really wanted to move the cars. Maybe its EOL soon for this Wish model.

 

Use the onemotoring.com spreadsheet on car cost if you are buying from AD. It is very very useful and will tell you the AD margin. PI cars are not on the list so do your own estimate and see if it is worth going for guaranteed COE esp when market is trending up at decision time.

[Damienic]

If he predicts wrongly will his credibility of being a CFO be questioned? Lol...i must say it is really not easy to predict..if coe down to 30k, garment probably say 70% downpayment liao and bank will bin chao chao because plenty would rush in. All those whose coe ended will change ride also, and this on top of those newcomers..demand too way above supply. I am also waiting!!

He very confident of his prediction...he say 5-10% error max....lol

[Newbie26]

Those who have bought hope prices will stay high

 

Those who are waiting to buy hope prices will come down, there is always a hope that somehow somewhere prices will crash

 

When those who have waited a long time realise prices are not coming down as much as they have hoped for, instead prices continue to rise, they will take the plunge.

 

Sometimes, it may be better not to think too much, if able to afford and if need requires, may be better to just take the plunge. Nobody can predict the floor of coe prices.

 

Owning cars is so very expensive and this is the price we all have to pay.

 

Singapore is so small and cars and roads will always be limited and population is growing.

 

Owning Cars and private properties will always be expensive.

 

Read the property threads in the past 5 years. those who hope for crash every year since 2009 have seen prices rise 40-50% and recent correction of 5% after all the cooling measures hardly mitigates the fact that demand is so very strong

 

Population demand of cars here is underestimated. It is a lifestyle choice for the middle income and the rich.

 

It is for this reason that it is very difficult to have cheap coe and cars.

 

If one is lucky to get a coe at point of a transient dip, thank the lucky stars.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[yo2020]

yo! May estimation revised to 1500. you got insider news?

 

ooops... wrong version. latest version below.

 

[yo2020]

 

What you say is partially true. But have u tried looking at the live bidding process. min bid is 1 dollar. you can set your limit. so since the previous failed bid is 61409, that means if the number of ppl within the quota will get the coe at atlease 61410. If you notice, the 1st bid of march, there is 1 balance coe. so if only his AE revise the bid to 61411 for him then he would have gotten the coe. Reason being he will still be in the quota.

 

What you say is partially true. if there were 2 failed bids at 61409, the agt jz needed to up the bid to 61410 to secure the COE. ;)

 

[Lincoln]

Look at it this way - how long has the $50k and higher COE level been sustained? Around 3 years?

 

If in the near term the COE level falls below that, what percentage of those owners of cars 3-4 years old will change to new ones? Then add in those people waiting on the sidelines.

 

The way I see it, the demand will always be more than enough to sustain current COE levels... In other words we are already at steady state levels. And it is highly unlikely that supply will ever reach the kind of high levels previously experienced.

 

The spiral effect is exactly why COE continue to drop and people will scrapped even more. Your explanation is totally different from what had happened before. It will happened again. Just need more patience.

[Enye]

What we are seeing now is replacement demand

 

The number of 9 year old car owners are still higher than 10 year old scrap cars

 

Not to mention 8 year old cars

 

Go to lta website and look at the stats

 

There would be one year in the near future when this situation is reversed

 

When that happens, if first time buyers and car owners do not replace their cars before the 10th year to make up for the shortfall

 

A plunge is imminent

 

Can you wait until then?

 

😂

[zerobim08]

 

The spiral effect is exactly why COE continue to drop and people will scrapped even more. Your explanation is totally different from what had happened before. It will happened again. Just need more patience.

 

Not really sure what you meant by "what had happened"?

 

The only time COE did plunge was caused by economic factor (911/SARS/financial crisis). Other smaller corrections (that lasted for short durations) were caused by changes to COE system.

 

As far as I remember there wasnt once the higher supply of COE cause a plunge in premium eventhough there were periods in the past where COE were abundant and at quantum higher than now.

[Kyrios]

Haha his Coe expiring next month but he say he considering to buy a 8yr old plus car and wait for Coe to drop next yr then buy. He predict that Coe will be hovering at 25-30k level sometime in 2016

 

See my post above. Coe expiring next month. He intend to buy a cheap old car now and wait for Coe to drop further.

2 years left to me is still a long time to go..2 years plus means at least 2 Xmas, 2 CNYs and 2 Formula 1 night races, 2 Valentines Days and 2 national days to get thru..still beri long time leh...

[Wt_know]

that if is almost a fantasy judging from singapore style

if coe plunge to $30k ... who don't change car especially for 2-3 years old car with $70k-$80k coe?

and these car were purchased with 50% downpayment so plenty of cash to rollover to new car

AD sure run aggresive promotion to sell sell sell

 

What we are seeing now is replacement demand

The number of 9 year old car owners are still higher than 10 year old scrap cars

Not to mention 8 year old cars

Go to lta website and look at the stats

There would be one year in the near future when this situation is reversed

When that happens, if first time buyers and car owners do not replace their cars before the 10th year to make up for the shortfall

A plunge is imminent

Can you wait until then?

😂

 

Edited March 19, 2015 by Wt_know

[Lincoln]

 

Not really sure what you meant by "what had happened"?

 

The only time COE did plunge was caused by economic factor (911/SARS/financial crisis). Other smaller corrections (that lasted for short durations) were caused by changes to COE system.

 

As far as I remember there wasnt once the higher supply of COE cause a plunge in premium eventhough there were periods in the past where COE were abundant and at quantum higher than now.

 

I never mentioned plunge and did not wish to complicate the matters with economies. If you insist, then I will refer to the sustained period of 2005-2010 where COE price is low and that is partly caused by the churn of relatively new cars. So, I'm calling this the spiral effect where churn actually cause price to fall more and not to rise. This effect is erroneously associated with COE price rises instead of falling.

 

As of now, COE price is not attractive at all for the churn. Instead, everyone is holding on to their cars for dear life. Only when the churn starts, COE will slide. I will wait eagerly for the SGD90k COE car owners to start thinking about changing their cars.

Edited March 19, 2015 by Lincoln