kmttan 4th Gear October 17, 2015 Share October 17, 2015 My guess Coe should go up as Nov to Jan coe stay flat while this is the time ppl will buy before Xmas & CNY. Just went Tan Chong. At 11am, saw 3 groups going through the paperwork. ↡ Advertisement Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eaton 2nd Gear October 17, 2015 Share October 17, 2015 All will go up... There some bro saying in another thread that VW Roadshow at Jurong and Vivio having good crowd. I guess it is due to gov announce positive growth and we are not in recession. Also, there is a strong and aggressive take up rate by UBER for 9 yr old car...it is reported that the trade-in offer is too good to be miss...good news for those having old car and planning to get a new one... i am at jurong point and nobody looking. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeky 1st Gear October 17, 2015 Share October 17, 2015 Just need to compare the COE rebate from the popular AD like BM. An increase in rebate level would mean higher chance of COE increase. They know the market well and the projected orders. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ODCmaniac 2nd Gear October 17, 2015 Share October 17, 2015 (edited) Seems like buying car is similar to a game of poker. A test of ones's calmness, knowing what's at stake before your next move. There're always angels and devils around tempting u to hold and wait for the next round or show hand. Edited October 17, 2015 by ODCmaniac 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ben5266 Supercharged October 17, 2015 Share October 17, 2015 All will go up... There some bro saying in another thread that VW Roadshow at Jurong and Vivio having good crowd. I guess it is due to gov announce positive growth and we are not in recession. Also, there is a strong and aggressive take up rate by UBER for 9 yr old car...it is reported that the trade-in offer is too good to be miss...good news for those having old car and planning to get a new one... think you read wrongly again. That some bro said the VW roadshows in Jurong..... Bo lang. Scared of the brand. Nice try. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chucky2007 Turbocharged October 17, 2015 Share October 17, 2015 My guess: CAT A: $60000 up 4k CAT B: $65000 up 6.5k Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simpleonly 5th Gear October 17, 2015 Share October 17, 2015 Just went Tan Chong. At 11am, saw 3 groups going through the paperwork. Wah visit tan chong again.. so did u sign for the serena? :-) Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voodooman Supersonic October 17, 2015 Share October 17, 2015 2 friends put down deposit last weekend, so my guess is flat or up a few k. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imac 5th Gear October 17, 2015 Share October 17, 2015 2 friends put down deposit last weekend, so my guess is flat or up a few k. Can check your friend are they giving ggod price for the trade-in car? My brother-in-law Dec 2006 Nissan Sunny can trade in for $18k. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
L23 6th Gear October 17, 2015 Share October 17, 2015 All will go up... There some bro saying in another thread that VW Roadshow at Jurong and Vivio having good crowd. I guess it is due to gov announce positive growth and we are not in recession. Also, there is a strong and aggressive take up rate by UBER for 9 yr old car...it is reported that the trade-in offer is too good to be miss...good news for those having old car and planning to get a new one... You mean alot of sales person sitting around ? VW is already a trash brand after all the gearbox issue. Don't forget what happened to them last month.. You sure you seeing consumer or sales person?? 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
flashbang Turbocharged October 17, 2015 Share October 17, 2015 In for the "maintain within a few hundred" prediction again. Really don't see COE moving much for the rest of the year. It has been facing some "resistance" since July around the 55k mark. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voodooman Supersonic October 18, 2015 Share October 18, 2015 Can check your friend are they giving ggod price for the trade-in car? My brother-in-law Dec 2006 Nissan Sunny can trade in for $18k. One buying 2nd car for family and the other is a first time buyer. But it is a fact that trade in prices are very good, I was offered a few k above paper value for my end of life car by my car mechanic and I expect he will need to make some $ as well. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imac 5th Gear October 18, 2015 Share October 18, 2015 One buying 2nd car for family and the other is a first time buyer. But it is a fact that trade in prices are very good, I was offered a few k above paper value for my end of life car by my car mechanic and I expect he will need to make some $ as well. Here are the reason why 9 yr old car is very popular now.. http://www.sgcarmart.com/news/article.php?AID=13669 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
nsengkia 1st Gear October 18, 2015 Share October 18, 2015 But it is a fact that trade in prices are very good, I was offered a few k above paper value for my end of life car by my car mechanic and I expect he will need to make some $ as well. Two hypotheses I would like to suggest for all to comment on: Uber and GrabTaxi fleet build up is a one time phenomena. The near scrap cars that they purchase will have to eventually be compensated with cars that they scrap because they cannot grow their fleet size indefinitely. Given a reported fleet size of more than 2500 cars, I would further suggest that their fleet size will stop growing soon and hence they will no longer be a factor in holding back the COE tsunami. The cars Uber and GrabTaxi purchase are not very near scrap cars (i.e. two to three months to scrap) but rather far near scrap cars (i.e. 9 to 12 months to scrap). Hence once their fleet build up is complete the demand for far near scrap cars will drop as they will run their fleet until the very last day before scraping them. Hence the high trade in prices for far near scrap cars is unsustainable. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
nsengkia 1st Gear October 18, 2015 Share October 18, 2015 In for the "maintain within a few hundred" prediction again. Really don't see COE moving much for the rest of the year. It has been facing some "resistance" since July around the 55k mark. Some observations I have for all to comment on: Dealers do not appear to have significant backlog at this time. The successful to unsuccessful bid ratio is high and many have posted that they are receiving their cars much earlier than they anticipated i.e. one bid one kill. The number of postings in this forum is also a contrarian indicator of demand and it has been dropping for the last few bids. Motorists who revalidate their COE are removing one COE from the next quarter’s quota but are also removing one demand from the current quarter. A spike in revalidation in a particular quarter will therefore push COE prices down rather than up. I would therefore predict green this time round. Finally, a really outlandish idea. I noticed that Borneo Motors (only monitoring their prices closely and not other ADs and PIs) appear to have become more aggressive with cutting their margins. My hypothesis is that they may have over imported cars based on projected COE quota and got caught out when the COE re validation rate jumped and the overall new car market failed to increase in line with their projections. Yes I admit that this idea is iffy but they do have a lot of stock (those who collected their cars at their premises in Jurong can comment on this) and almost no order backlog. Hence I am looking forward to a good year end sale for new cars with an overall (COE and margin) reduction of $5k from current prices. 4 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voodooman Supersonic October 18, 2015 Share October 18, 2015 Two hypotheses I would like to suggest for all to comment on: Uber and GrabTaxi fleet build up is a one time phenomena. The near scrap cars that they purchase will have to eventually be compensated with cars that they scrap because they cannot grow their fleet size indefinitely. Given a reported fleet size of more than 2500 cars, I would further suggest that their fleet size will stop growing soon and hence they will no longer be a factor in holding back the COE tsunami. The cars Uber and GrabTaxi purchase are not very near scrap cars (i.e. two to three months to scrap) but rather far near scrap cars (i.e. 9 to 12 months to scrap). Hence once their fleet build up is complete the demand for far near scrap cars will drop as they will run their fleet until the very last day before scraping them. Hence the high trade in prices for far near scrap cars is unsustainable. Whatever Uber and Grabcar are doing, you can't run away from the fact that we are nearing peak of COE cycle (another 20% and flat thereafter for 2 years) and COE is still at 55k, so don't hope for a lot of green going forward. I would recommend buyers entering the market during next big drop and make sure you get a guaranteed package. Uber and Grabcar are individual buyers' greatest competitors for COE, they buy cars, new or old to make money, it is good for taxi commuters but bad for buyers in the long run. If govt don't step in, they will continue to take market share from taxi companies and to continue to expand their fleet. There are 28,000 taxi in Singapore, that is a lot of market share to capture. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AthlicSky 2nd Gear October 18, 2015 Share October 18, 2015 So many theories this round. Let the results do the talking. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
flashbang Turbocharged October 18, 2015 Share October 18, 2015 So many theories this round. Let the results do the talking. My theory has always been a decrease in prices until end of 2016, following the COE supply curve. However, the prices have been propped up quite well by demand in the recent months. With the recent reduction in quota for the next quarter, seems hard for prices to move significantly downwards. Disclaimer: no vested interest in COE prices ↡ Advertisement 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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