2016 Jan, 2nd COE Bidding Exercise

[Limwsv]

Bro... thoug is longang?

 

Aiyah.. I got expensive taste lah..     I grew up eating lychee almond pudding tongshui.

[Atrecord]

Wow that's surprising!! My friend also book the new A class but C&C did not even put in a bid for him. Hmmm.....

 

Nothing surprises me, these ADs.

 

10+ yr ago, i booked a G9 Corolla 2 days before bidding, when the price has gone up by i think $1k from 3 wk ago. It was the bid after the $101 COE. With the price i paid being higher than those who signed earlier, by right I should get the COE ahead of those who paid less, right? 

 

Nope, BM decided i should not get the COE for that round. The rebate was $17,000. The successful bid was in the region of $26k+ i think.

 

How much did BM bid for me? 

 

$17,001 

 

One month later, i got the car as they bid $29k+...

[Loo]

Huh? And you ask me if I am in SG or MY ?

 

Raymond Lim experiment failed because they did not raise the ERP fast enough and does not have enough gantries coverage. They start raising the ERP and have to back peddle because there's no alternatives for motorist.

 

They have learned from their lessons. First, they are going to make sure that most of Singapore has station coverage, 80% of the population will be within half a KM of a station.

 

They are going to the potent mix NexGen ERP.

 

Then they will expand the supply and surge charge the ERP to increase revenue and ensure a predictable constant stream of revenue from ERP. This time a round, if motorist kpkb, govt will point that they have spend lots of money on the nice nice train system for you... so if you don't like the ERP rates, please help yourself to the train system.

 

 

Sure.. no problem.. you can keep your belief that OCS will happen...

 

And I will continue to keep out my argument why OCS will not happen...

 

Very soon it will be end of 2016... let see who belief is correct.

 

I have won the last round against the GE OC and six months after GE OCS...

 

I will win this round too

 

 

I am not sure who's naive... if you think that the government is all seeing and can think thru every nuances of a policy.

 

I am so naive that they privatize the public transportation, encourage a policy of listing and making the operator profit oriented and causing the train system to break down until it becomes a national joke and that a minster has to commit political "hara-kiri" to avoid losing a GE...

 

Yes, I am so navie.

I rest my case. Wat u keep telling people t o wait is only to manipulate by delaying the buyers from entering the market. If the demand is still there, even if more quota will not guarantee a fall in price as each has their own entry point.

 

If coe goes up instead of down with the excess supply, I suspect people will panic enter and push up the Coe ultimately to a point of no return. Thats when people do not think they will see the light at the end tunnel....That is cheap Coe.

[Limwsv]

I rest my case. Wat u keep telling people t o wait is only to manipulate by delaying the buyers from entering the market. If the demand is still there, even if more quota will not guarantee a fall in price as each has their own entry point.

 

If coe goes up instead of down with the excess supply, I suspect people will panic enter and push up the Coe ultimately to a point of no return. Thats when people do not think they will see the light at the end tunnel....That is cheap Coe.

 

Hmm.. you don't understand my case then..

 

I have been telling people not to replace their car early... Wait till the last 3 - 6 months before re-entering the market.  

 

What it does is that it allows an orderly replacement of the cars by buyers...

 

With new first time buyers replacing those retirees who has giving up driving and OPC cars.

 

I have never told people they will buy the lowest nor get the best bargain nor even to give up cars and wait it out... although I have personally done so..

 

What panic mongers are doing is trying to make those whose cars are not even due to renewal to sell and rush into the market early while the volume of COE has not catch up.  

 

This drive the buy volume high... we have seen this happen between Feb 2015 - Jun 2015, and drives COE up and keep 2nd car price high!

 

Why for sabo each other?  Wait your turn and scrap when your turn comes and everyone get back a car without having to provide superprofit to the profiteers.

 

 

Edited January 20, 2016 by Limwsv

[Forte3737]

I have friends who earned less than 3k a month who committed on the dotted line for new cars when coe hit 45k. They got their money from selling their property. I believe if i have a few frens like this, there may be many out there. I am not chewing on the numbers...but how to expect coe to drop another 10k if relly got so many overleveragers?

Dun bother how much they earn. Important is how much you earn per month

Nothing surprises me, these ADs.

 

10+ yr ago, i booked a G9 Corolla 2 days before bidding, when the price has gone up by i think $1k from 3 wk ago. It was the bid after the $101 COE. With the price i paid being higher than those who signed earlier, by right I should get the COE ahead of those who paid less, right?

 

Nope, BM decided i should not get the COE for that round. The rebate was $17,000. The successful bid was in the region of $26k+ i think.

 

How much did BM bid for me?

 

$17,001

 

One month later, i got the car as they bid $29k+...

That was a decade ago.things have changed

[Forte3737]

It is always a cycle. Some of us here is making prediction based on trend. Not speculating whether if next bid is up or down. My prediction is down trend. Doesn't mean next bid down. In fact, my guess this round is 49k. Not too far off i guess. But nonetheless this round is beyond expectations. Next bid going to drop. When it stabilise at 45k, the dealers will price their cars with more realistic COE rebates.

Coe rebates are pegged to the dealers advantage and not very realistic

[AthlicSky]

So u guys think that with cat B down 5k, that will create a lot of demand?

[Blackyv]

So u guys think that with cat B down 5k, that will create a lot of demand?

Well, .....hehehe

[Runforyourlife]

I think by now it's clear with the attitude Singaporeans have, a massive drop will be a rare occasion.

 

When b drops all buy b, when a drops all buy a. No one buys at the time they are suppose to buy, all just want the best for themselves, at the expense of others.

 

That's us, no? If this goes on, without intervention from Govt or manipulation by ad, we will all be screwed, by each other, not much of a surprise?

[Simplecar]

Hmm... you apparently have not read these threads for the longest time.  

 

Let me repeat, government has zero interest in reducing numbers of cars.  What they are going to do is reduce congestion by implementing NextGen ERP.  Then they will expand the supply of COE so that anyone who wants to buy a car can get one... 

 

However, they will stop congestion cold by using the same technology that Uber is using to for surge charging... expect ERP for popular roads during populars hours to increase to as much as $100...

 

Let see if congestion will still happen.  

where are these additional cars going to park when no on the roads? Traffic at popular roads will be very congested. Parking cost will shoot up.

 

Dont think govt will increase the numbers of COEs. They previously did it once and ERP has to be implemented to control the increased number of cars since then.

[Atrecord]

That was a decade ago.things have changed

 

But i think old habits (of car dealers wanting to do all things to their advantage ahead of customer's needs) die hard lor...

[Limwsv]

I rest my case. Wat u keep telling people t o wait is only to manipulate by delaying the buyers from entering the market. If the demand is still there, even if more quota will not guarantee a fall in price as each has their own entry point.

 

If coe goes up instead of down with the excess supply, I suspect people will panic enter and push up the Coe ultimately to a point of no return. Thats when people do not think they will see the light at the end tunnel....That is cheap Coe.

 

And seriously, let stop playing defense... 

 

Let go on the offense.

 

Those who keep posting OCS is going to happen and so on... what's their agenda...  why don't they come up front and explain to us what benefit do they gain if OCS does happens or even better still, if car prices/coes prices stays high.

 

Question my motives too... what benefit would I have if coe prices goes south?

[Forte3737]

where are these additional cars going to park when no on the roads? Traffic at popular roads will be very congested. Parking cost will shoot up.

 

Dont think govt will increase the numbers of COEs. They previously did it once and ERP has to be implemented to control the increased number of cars since then.

They are going for zero percentage car growth rate

[Kkttt]

People are so forgetful...

9 Oct 2013, just 2 years 3 months ago, Cat B was at $93.5k. Some people were damn cock sure, declaring it'll never drop.

Same arguments we hear today about limited land, increasing population, people will rush in to prop up the price etc.

Fast forward to today, Cat B is at $54.9k, which is 41.6% drop. Yet we hear the same arguments replayed again.

Some people just refuse to face the facts.

Sounds like property agents to me. 

[Atrecord]

So u guys think that with cat B down 5k, that will create a lot of demand?

 

Will know soon enough. 

 

Am sure SEs will start informing new prices tmr or Fri. That will be an indication of what the feel.

[Limwsv]

I think by now it's clear with the attitude Singaporeans have, a massive drop will be a rare occasion.

 

When b drops all buy b, when a drops all buy a. No one buys at the time they are suppose to buy, all just want the best for themselves, at the expense of others.

 

That's us, no? If this goes on, without intervention from Govt or manipulation by ad, we will all be screwed, by each other, not much of a surprise?

 

Aiyah.. nothing to complain about, that's market behaviour...

 

Get the best for the cheapest... what why markets promote efficiency...

[Forte3737]

And seriously, let stop playing defense...

 

Let go on the offense.

 

Those who keep posting OCS is going to happen and so on... what's their agenda... why don't they come up front and explain to us what benefit do they gain if OCS does happens or even better still, if car prices/coes prices stays high.

 

Question my motives too... what benefit would I have if coe prices goes south?

Lets forget about offense n defense. If you have the ability, just buy new.if dun have, give up car ownership.

 

Very simple theory. What for argue n fight?

[Zeally]

I think by now it's clear with the attitude Singaporeans have, a massive drop will be a rare occasion.

 

When b drops all buy b, when a drops all buy a. No one buys at the time they are suppose to buy, all just want the best for themselves, at the expense of others.

 

That's us, no? If this goes on, without intervention from Govt or manipulation by ad, we will all be screwed, by each other, not much of a surprise?

Hmm,that in game theory means that everyone is behaving rationally and optimally which will lead to true market price. If this true price is high, then it means singaporeans are just rich and wants to own car at all costs.

 

But i dun think that everyone is behaving rationally. A fair number who have quite significant spending power just replaces their ride whenever its time is up, or when repair costs are too high. This group are paying more than they should.