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https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/ASEAN-economy-to-slow-down-in-2nd-half-of-2022-JCER-Nikkei-survey?utm_campaign=GL_coronavirus_latest&utm_medium=email&utm_source=NA_newsletter&utm_content=article_link&del_type=10&pub_date=20220710123000&seq_num=6&si=44594 ASEAN economy to slow down in 2nd half of 2022: JCER/Nikkei survey Economists see inflation, U.S. rate hikes weighing on region despite COVID easing The economies of ASEAN's five biggest members will grow 5.0% in 2022, according to the latest survey by JCER and Nikkei in June, thanks to the reopening of borders. © Reuters SHOICHIRO TAGUCHI, Nikkei staff writerJuly 4, 2022 17:21 JST TOKYO -- Economists have raised 2022 growth forecasts for Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand as they expect growth in the first half of the year to be higher than forecast, thanks to a relaxation of COVID restrictions. However, there are downward revisions to forecasts for the latter half of 2022 for each country due to concerns about slowing economies following the U.S. interest rate hike and ongoing inflation. Gross domestic product for the five biggest members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations -- Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand -- will grow 5.0% in 2022, according to the latest quarterly survey by the Japan Center for Economic Research and Nikkei in June. The figure reflects a 0.1 percentage point upward revision from the previous survey in March. Asian countries are steering their economies away from the pandemic to resume economic and business activities, including accepting tourists. The outlook for Indonesia was upgraded to 5.1% from 5.0% in the previous survey. The Philippines ticked up to 6.6% from 6.3%, while Thailand's figure was up to 3.2% from 3.1%. Juniman, chief economist at Bank Maybank Indonesia, said the "recovery growth of the Indonesian economy is driven by an improvement of the global economic environment that is driving up performances of exports and investment, and the decline in cases of COVID-19 infection." On the other hand, Malaysia's growth rate forecast dropped to 6% from 6.1%, while Singapore's dropped to 4.3% from 4.6%. India, also part of the survey, was downgraded to 7.2% from 7.8%. Compared to 2021, a turnaround in economic growth is anticipated in most nations surveyed. However, forecasts for the second half of 2022 for each country have been lowered from the previous survey. The major reason for the downgrade lies in the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. The Fed raised the benchmark interest rate on June 15 by 75 basis points -- the largest hike since November 1994 -- setting the target federal funds range at 1.5% to 1.75%, eyeing to curb the worst inflation the country has faced in 40 years. The Fed has also lowered its 2022 U.S. economic growth forecast from the 2.8% projected in March to 1.7%, casting a long shadow on Asian economies. Most central banks in Asian countries are moving to raise policy interest rates, with India leading followed by Malaysia and the Philippines. Vincent Loo Yeong Hong, senior economist at KAF Research in Malaysia, noted that "such steep hikes in U.S. interest rates would likely trigger a sharp slowdown [or] recession in the economy." Indonesia and Thailand are expected to follow. Wisnu Wardana, economist at Bank Danamon Indonesia, believes that with "inflation on the rise ... Bank Indonesia needs to adjust its policy rate in the third quarter [of] 2022." Krungsri Research of Bank of Ayudhya also says: "We anticipate the first rate hike at the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting in August," though the pace of hikes will be slower than in neighboring countries "because the rate hike in Thailand this year should aim at anchoring inflation expectations rather than depressing domestic demand." In addition to currency depreciation associated with higher interest rates, inflation caused by factors such as high material prices due to the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war is likely to be a major negative risk in the second half of the year. "Singapore's economy remains on an unstable trajectory as a result of its exposure to geopolitical risks and the fallout from the situation in Ukraine," said Randolph Tan of Singapore University of Social Sciences. Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist of CRISIL, also pointed out that the "downside risks to growth have increased on account of surging commodity prices and global supply disruptions." The shift in potential threats to Asian economies was reflected in a survey of what economists think are the top risks for the coming 12 months. "Inflation" was ranked No. 1 in all six countries, while "U.S. monetary policy" was ranked as the second risk in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore. Almost no experts listed "COVID-19 infection" as a risk factor, except for Malaysia, where it was ranked sixth. "Chinese economy slowdown" also was ranked as one of the primary risk factors in Thailand, given the high linkage between the two economies. Lalita Thienprasiddhi, senior researcher at the Kasikorn Research Center, said the Chinese economy "has already slowed down considerably due to Beijing's zero-COVID policy and lockdowns." Even though China has recently eased its lockdown, "China's overall zero-COVID policy remains in place, which would continue to impact Chinese consumer sentiment and cause hiccups in Chinese manufacturing," she added. The survey was conducted from June 3 to June 23, with 36 economists and analysts responding.

www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1420215/singaporeans-not-wealthy-gdp-figures-suggest PUBLISHED : Tuesday, 04 February, 2014, 5:57am UPDATED : Tuesday, 04 February, 2014, 3:00pm Singaporeans not as wealthy as GDP figures suggest HK performs better than the Lion City on the basis of personal consumption expenditure Jake van der Kamp ... the average growth of Singapore's gross domestic product and GDP per capita has outperformed Hong Kong's over the last 45 years. Its GDP was only half that of Hong Kong more than 20 years ago. Today the Lion City's GDP is slightly ahead and GDP per capita is 25 per cent higher than in Hong Kong. Letters to the editor, SCMP, February 2 OK, let's play games with GDP numbers as these are what Singapore bureaucrats love to play and as the numbers are not quite what they seem. We shall start by conceding the headline figures. Yes, as of the latest statistical releases, GDP at prevailing rates of exchange runs at an annual rate of about US$52,000 per person of the total population in Singapore and US$37,000 in Hong Kong, which puts Singapore about 40 per cent ahead, not just 25 per cent. The point about GDP, however, is that it is meant to be a measure of wealth. It does not mean much to you unless it represents wealth that finds its way into your hands, that is, unless it takes the form of a component of GDP called personal consumption expenditure. I now refer you to the first chart. In Singapore, personal consumption expenditure has steadily fallen over the years as a percentage of GDP and, at 35 per cent, is now barely half of what it is in Hong Kong. This is an oddity characteristic of a startup economy, not of a wealthy town like Singapore. But it means that, on the basis of our money-in-your-hands measure, Hong Kong at US$24,000 per capita still outranks Singapore at US$21,000. The second chart gives you a clue as to why the two economies are so different on this measure. Industrial investment in Singapore, always predominantly foreign, has become even more so in recent years, accounting for an average of about 80 per cent of total investment over the past 10 years. I do not have the equivalent figures for Hong Kong but, at a rough guess, the foreign-local ratio would be the reverse. This foreign investment in Singapore has in turn produced a huge trade surplus in both goods and services. Over recent years, it has run at about 30 per cent of GDP. And most of this money goes right back out again to pay foreigners for all the confidence they have shown in Singapore by investing in it so heavily. In short, Singapore's high GDP numbers are mostly an anomaly created by very generous industrial concessions to foreigners. They do not really reflect domestic wealth. In another way, however, these GDP measures of Hong Kong and Singapore do not mean much as a yardstick of the comparative efficiency of either system. The fact is both are parasite economies feeding off much larger neighbours, the mainland in Hong Kong's case and Indonesia and Malaysia in Singapore's. They are both wealthy because they perform services that their neighbours cannot or, for reasons of policy, will not perform. All that their relative state of wealth really tells you is one has fewer scruples than the other about how low it is willing to go. On this measure, I definitely rate Singapore as the more successful. This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as Singaporeans not as wealthy as GDP figures suggest

As above manufacturing helped bolster support Singapore's GDP expected to shrink between 4% to 7% as growth forecast cut again on COVID-19 impact https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/worst-recession-gdp-forecast-cut-again-covid-19-12767948 full year looks to be 4.0% jialat

Just wanted to look around to see how many folks are aware of the actual dismal performance of our Q2 GDP growth, which contracted by 4.7% on an annualized q-on-q basis? It's quite interesting looking at local media coverage of the Q2 GDP statistics, and foreign media coverage (i.e. BBC, Reuters, Bloomberg). Something that really stands out is how the local media headlines and emphasis is on the nominal y-on-y 1.8% GROWTH in GDP, with the actual negative contraction of 4.7% relegated to one or two sentence buried in the middle of the report. Whereas for foreign coverage, the emphasis is on annualised contraction of 4.7% in GDP. To put this into context, SG hasn't experienced such a sharp contraction in GDP on a quarterly annualised basis since the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. Around my own circles, the non-finance or non-economics trained individuals didn't really have a clue that the economy just hit a hard landing and we are staring right into the abyss of quite a deep recession that is close approaching. Pretty much why explains why most people here are so tied up in debating on COE fluctuations and hypotheticals everyday :) See examples below. Local and official sources https://www.enterpriseone.gov.sg/en/News/2015/July/150714%20Singapores%20GDP%20Rose%20By%201pt7percent%20On%20Year%20In%20Q2%202015.aspx http://www.singstat.gov.sg/docs/default-source/default-document-library/news/press_releases/advgdp2q2015.pdf http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore-economy-grew/1982450.html Foreign sources: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/14/singapore-economy-gdp-idUSL3N0ZQ34K20150714 http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/13/singapore-2q-gdp-dropped-46-on-quarter-while-08-rise-expected.html

extracted from another website....well written.. pls read on... Savantrainmaker wrote: Was recently back in Singapore after being based overseas for many years. Chanced upon and subscribed to the EDMW forum when I was abroad and read many rants about the Government's 'Foreign Talent' policies. Felt then that people were complaining for the sake of complaining. Could not reconcile with all the anger and frustration until I landed back in my beloved Singapore. The online scenario painted by many an exasperated netizens held much truth. Everywhere on the island is now much more crowded than before. Uncouth and anti-social behaviours by foreigners are more evident. The general level of cleanliness around the city has also dropped. General service standard and productivity have also dropped noticeably. Beyond the physical deterioration, I have also observed a disturbing trend emerging. Singaporeans are being pushed out of the labour market by unfair practices across all job-levels. Blue-collared workers have their wages depressed and in some cases, even employment denied because the foreigner foreman chose his own countrymen over a deserving Singaporean worker. Entry and mid-level white-collared workers are denied deserving job-promotions and career-advancement opportunities because of unfair advantages that their foreigners colleagues enjoyed. Even top level executive-positions are not spared as foreigner bosses/HRs/CEOs choose to bring in their own kind and/or network instead of hiring/promoting a deserving and in many instances, better-qualified Singaporeans. Heard plenty of stories from friends and head-hunters. A large oil & gas firm bringing in foreigners to fill regional management positions that capable local Singaporean managers could and would want to do. A Swiss bank parachuting executives from Zurich and Geneva into Singapore to fill management roles yearned by the local employees because the market in Europe is depressing now. A French company choosing a 60-year old French citizen with a mediocre track-record ahead of a top-performing Singaporean in his mid-40s to be the regional CEO. Having lived and worked in different global cities, I have seen my fair share of discrimination in the labour market. American banks and financial institutions on TARP not allowed to employ non-Americans, companies in Europe are incentivised to only employ EU citizens, international banks in Japan only employs Japanese natives and even fluent-Japanese speakers are denied the opportunity to interview, only native-Spanish speakers will ever be employed in Latin America etc. These discriminatory labour practices that favour the natives are not unexpected. Afterall, it's their country and their rules. But, seeing deserving Singaporeans being discriminated in his/her own country is really shocking to say the least. Singapore has always made meritocracy as one of our main pillars for nation-building and progress. It's a real shame that this value is being eroded by the relentless influx of foreigners, who valued kinship and people of their own skin-colour more. The Government, with its liberal foreign employment policies, knowingly or otherwise, become the perfect accomplice. This even despite the massive outcry from the populace during the GE2011, that prompted the Prime Minister to apologize on national television no less. Alas, words are not backed up by actions. Worse, hard figures published recently showed the contrary as more foreigners are allowed to work in Singapore in the past year since GE2011. In Leadership 101, what is worse than incompetency is insincerity and betrayal. It's no wonder that this current Government is losing its credibility and whatever residual goodwill that 60.1% of the populace has decided to give it a last-chance to redeem itself. So herein, I lay down the challenge to all EDMWers. To stop being a keyboard warrior. Instead of ranting and complaining only online, take one step further to let fellow Singaporeans see the real challenges that the country is facing. Ask fellow Singaporeans constructive questions to trigger their logical thought process: - Government has always emphasized that we need more foreigners for the country to stay competitive and achieve higher GDP growth. Yes, the Singaporean economy has stayed very competitive globally and our GDP at US$56,532 per capita is the highest in the world, (US$5,300 more than second-placed Norway!) according The Wealth Report 2012. Several questions to ask. How have you personally benefitted from all these economic progress? And is this US$56,532 the median income for Singaporeans? If not, why is the Singaporean's median income at US$29,500 so much lesser than the mean GDP figure? - Economic progress and high GDP growth have a very low correlation with the quality of life of the populace. So why does the Government keep on insisting on maintaining high GDP growth? Is the Government's raison d'être (reason for existence) to improve the people's quality of life or to achieve high GDP growth? Which is the mean and which is the end? So really who benefits from the high GDP growth? - Government keeps on emphasizing that foreigners are needed to safekeep jobs for Singaporeans. Then why is that the case that 7 out of 10 jobs created in 2011 goes to a foreigner? - Government keeps on saying that Singaporeans do not possess the necessary skill-sets for certain jobs that MNCs in Singapore need, so foreigners need to be imported. Ask the critical question that if we keep on importing foreigners, then how can Singaporeans ever be trained to have these skill-sets? And this argument become circular the next time round in the future. Since the MNCs do not take in and train local Singaporeans in these skill-sets, it'll forever use the lack of necessary skill-sets excuse to keep on demanding for the Government to allow more foreigners in. - The official unemployment figure is 2%. How is this figure calculated? What is the under-employment figure for Singaporeans? What is the real cost to the nation of educating Singaporeans to such high international standards and have him/her under-employed because of unfair labour practice promulgated by foreigner bossess/HRs/CEOs? - Why did the Government allowed in an addition of 1.5 million foreigners without adequate preparation of the transport and housing infrastructure? Complacency or incompetency? What's is the real cost to the country with such high housing cost? If people are spending a high proportion of their income on housing, the amount of disposable income left for other consumption and retirement planning would suffer. So what's the ultimate cost to the country in the long-term? And why is S$1.1 billion Singaporean tax-dollars used to increase the nation's bus capacity, subsidizing the 40% non-Singaporeans in the process? - And the million dollar question (no puns intended). Have your life become better or worse off since the last GE? There's an estimated 20,000 EDMWer (forumers) and 200 weeks more to GE2016. If everyone of us were to share with a different fellow Singaporean these perspectives every week till the next election is called, we could in all reach out to 4,000,000 Singaporeans (not physically possible because there are only 3.285 million Singaporean). Given that there will be overlaps and that there will be Singaporeans who will not be convinced and/or converted; it will sure make a difference in shifting the 60.1% majority that the current Government scored in the last election. So make the difference today. Take action, ask constructive questions, make your fellow Singaporeans think and be aware. Finally, I would like to state for the record: I am not xenophobic, I just love Singapore and Singaporeans more.