HDB Housing Prices Up or Down in Next 5 years

[Verve]

Was having a conversation with my friend on HDB Housing Prices recently.

 

I felt that those who buy the boon keng development will see little opportunity for capital appreciation because of the high prices they are paying which i feel will be higher if the property market eventually softens. (price locked in now, flat delivered 2011).

 

It may be condo like but how condo like is the question plus the fact that HDB Flats have restrictions which may soften the price on the open market.

 

WIth the recent property price hikes my feel is that prices should start to soften (maybe by 20 -30 percent) within the next 5 years bearing in mind that the economy is barely able to maintain its pace now.

 

my friend disagreed saying that developments like the IRs and the influx of foreigners aka prs will boost demand.

 

so just like to have a survey to see what you guys think, as eventually the market response is to an extent influenced by what we feel.

[Apollo]

my take is if u got property, just keep.

 

becos beri simple math... last time b4 FT allowed in, we only got 3million pple. now suddenly become 4.5mil. and in a couple of years more become 6 mil. they like in pig sty everything grab and makan. but many problem not resolve.

 

so how to house 6mil pple? not enuff land, not enuff houses lah..

 

simple as tat.

Edited January 4, 2008 by Apollo

[Porker]

It can't go too high simply because its HDB. People will always associate HDB with subsidized housing and hence the lower price.

 

There's nothing wrong with HDB in case you people start bashing me because of my statement.

[Scoop]

agree with you. The market has reached it's peak.

[Verve]

my thoughts exactly,

 

however was very surprised when people start plonking almost 800k for flat in tiong bahru area

[Acemundo]

I don't agree with your friend. Many street analyst like him like to cite the IR as the factor that will drive singapore economy up further. I have laughed off suggestions that Singapore's economic growth will be even better in the year of 2009 and onwards when the IR are up.

 

The reality is that the news of IR is like any news available in the stock market. When there is news a listed company is to be acquired, its stock price increase immediately after the news is released and almost no increase seen on actual day the acquisition is completed. This is because many people already factor that increase into their analysis before the event and buy in accordingly. By the time the event happens, the increase is almost nil.

 

For the IR, we have already seen its positive effect making investors snap up properties like crazy this year. By the time the IR is up in 2009, there is little increase in property prices by then. Some may disagree citing that IR generates more employment figures when the business starts in 2009. In reality, even if IR can generate additional 5000 jobs, these are merely salaried workers and their impact on the economy will not be so great compared to the foreign property investors.

 

Plus not forgetting, in the build up to IR, positive employment numbers already experienced for people in the construction,architect related industry. by 2009, the decrease in jobs in the construction/architect industry will offset the increase in jobs in the IR industry, meaning the nett increase is not as fantastic as one thought.

[Porker]

Those are idiots. There are many idiots around. You are an idiot at least once in your life. Sad to say that I'm an idiot as well

[Verve]

woke up from being an idiot liao kanna tight slap already

 

i think many idiots walking around just saw exec apts in queenstown transacting 700k plus and 5 room flat transacting 600k plus

 

if these idiots keeping pulling off this kind of stunt, life gonna get harder liao..... gotta find some way to get the bangla to faaaark them deep deep in the backside then can wake up the idea.

[Verve]

i have always felt that ir only benefits the govt in lining up their pockets with gambling revenue other than that the impact on the economy is much less tangible, i don t think we will even see overall 10 percent growth just with the ir.

[Verve]

ok so far half said down, keep plugging the votes guys and we can get a very rough (rudimentary, basic) gauge

[Octopus]

I agree with what you've said.

 

I have no formal education in economic, perhaps this is why I can't understand how come IR can improve S'pore economy by so much that property prices shoot up and foreign investor all rush in to have a stake?

 

Like you say, even when IR is up and running, we'll just have much more waiter/waiteress, much more casino dealer, much more people in the service sector, basically much more peasant (salary people) trying to earn a living. These people can't afford the high-end property, and how much can they contribute to the economy? If recession comes and those rich won't come and gamble/spend money in our IR, what I see is instead a very gloomy scenario.

 

I just don't understand how come IR can do miracle for S'pore?

[Acemundo]

no doubt IR does generate positive benefits for the economy. But say a 1% or 2% contribution by IR to GDP aint gonna bring up your HDB resale price further. People have to understand it is sentiment that matters more than real GDP growth when it comes to increasing HDB resale prices. While it is true GDP growth does help to lift sentiment, sentiment is affected by a lot of other factors.

 

If sentiment is not the most important factor, how come today's bishan HDB resale prices still don't scale the similar peaks of 1996/7?

[Apollo]

IR has nothing to do with the "boom".. apart fr speculators, there is certain a lotsa pple making $$ elsewhere by some other means that r sending in $$ to do dry-cleaning and coupon parking.

 

to know true or false, just check out those expensive condo, see how many actually switch on lights at nite. then ask urself how come so many empty ones yet all sold?

[Rickster]

my thoughts exactly,

 

however was very surprised when people start plonking almost 800k for flat in tiong bahru area

 

At least that is tiong bahru. Imagine pple alrdy plonking $600K for a 10+ year old flat in jurong area that is the state the HDB market has came to...

[Acemundo]

hehe, thanks for sharing my view.

 

the investors rushed in because 1) property prices were undervalued then in singaproe and 2) expecting IR to push up demand for condos in the central region. noticed the initial increase all went to the areas near the IR and central? then as the foreigners buy over the prime areas from the locals, the locals move outwards and the prices for outlying condos and subsequently HDB increased

 

factor 1) was quite substantial so it make the increase this year quite unbelievable. somehow it spun off some unbelievably positive sentiments on some blokes that they are willing to pay around $750k for a 20year old HDB flat in Marine Parade. That's the stupidest decision i have seen in my lifetime.

 

correct. 5000 more peasant level income contributing to the economy is not something that will burst our HDB resale prices.

[Rickster]

Very valid point. Simple & straight forward

[Acemundo]

of course, speculators drive up the sentiment ma...IR is one of their fuel to drive up the sentiments and hence resale prices.

[Shorty]

HDB r supposed to provide subsidised housing for us.but how come a 4rm flat now can cost more den 250k when dat is also ard de same price for a resale flat?...i tot buying a new flat from hdb should b cheaper.