If you think Property price has peak, think again !

[Duckduck]

For flippers, the best time to buy is when garmen is loosening policies, not tightening like now. They will start to loosen when the mkt crashes back down again n they remove the cooling measures etc. That is the best time 2 buy private prop.

 

The reason many missed the boat in 2008-2009 is because they either spent/invested most of their cash along the way of the bull run before, or unprepared to react when fire sales happen.

 

When everyone panics, its time to buy. Now its complete opposite situation...

[Wt_know]

flippers might be caught high and dry with flip-flopping policies and cooling measures

Edited November 7, 2012 by Wt_know

[Throttle2]

No money , no property.

Edited November 7, 2012 by Throttle2

[HP_Lee]

For flippers, the best time to buy is when garmen is loosening policies, not tightening like now. They will start to loosen when the mkt crashes back down again n they remove the cooling measures etc. That is the best time 2 buy private prop.

 

The reason many missed the boat in 2008-2009 is because they either spent/invested most of their cash along the way of the bull run before, or unprepared to react when fire sales happen.

 

When everyone panics, its time to buy. Now its complete opposite situation...

 

That's exactly what I'm in. Is a no-brainer thought. But today many have forgotten that property does have cycles. When I bought a local property during the year 2004, it was cheap. Coz than, no body queue up in show flats. The agents served me like a king. Just to share this numbers. Bought Citylights at $559/sqft, and sold at around $1456/sqft end last year. Unless you really need a roof over the head, if not I sit and wait till time comes. So if you think Property price has peak, think again hard !

Edited November 7, 2012 by HP_Lee

[HP_Lee]

flippers might be caught high and dry with flip-flopping policies and cooling measures

 

Yup. Just the beginning. More get hurt along the way.

[HP_Lee]

Easily

a) People lose money

b) Developer lose money

 

You think prices are legally fixed to allow investors and developer to raise money? If people don't buy, too many people try to sell at the same time - then what happens? Of course price falls right? It's not like someone is going to come and say "you're not allowed to sell at lower than historic cost"

 

Yup.. Vested interest. That's all I can say.

[HP_Lee]

Nah -

 

My prediction is

a) Recovery in US will raise central bank lending rates (to combat inflationary pressure)

b) Recovery will pull speculative money back towards capital investment in the US and away from property here

c) More expensive loans will lead to people starting to divest property, and less property demand

d) There is coming very high supply relative to historic levels which will remove some of the heat from the market

e) There has been a reduction in immigration that is not yet showing up in the market, soon some of the rental demand will be removed, leading to lower returns and further divestment.

 

I dun predict. I just see how the market transactions and behaviour. These 2 indicators are go enough for me to whether jump in or not.

Many are still not aware that we are gradually losing competitiveness to US. I am seeing quite a few MNCs are returning certain core functions back to their home town. These core functions were previously deemed mid-cost. This is a sign, that we should not underestimate.

Edited November 7, 2012 by HP_Lee

[HP_Lee]

No money , no property.

 

So have you decided your new car? CLS or the Hybrid 5

Edited November 7, 2012 by HP_Lee

[HP_Lee]

The picture will only fully materialise in fourty years or so...considering the latest coastal line to be completed 2020.

 

Till then with average 1% minimum inflation, properties with or without mrt would have risen a lot.

 

Bro just to correct your 1%. This is no longer possible from now on. The real core inflation average now and future is going to be 2.8% - 3.5% range annualize! This is the reality of life for all of us.

 

[Alechi]

I see oversupply of DBSS

I see oversupply of BTO

I see oversupply of EC

I see oversupply of private apartments and condos

 

I see a bubble bursting soon ... If bubble burst because of over zealous actions by HDB, in the election year coming up soon, the political party got to "answer" ... not very nice outcome if so

[HP_Lee]

I see oversupply of DBSS

I see oversupply of BTO

I see oversupply of EC

I see oversupply of private apartments and condos

 

I see a bubble bursting soon ... If bubble burst because of over zealous actions by HDB, in the election year coming up soon, the political party got to "answer" ... not very nice outcome if so

 

Whether be it oversupply or not, is not in the hands of human. As mentioned, building homes and ship-building lag 3 - 5 years from planning to TOP. This is due to the nature of demand and supply, thus will never goes parallel.

[Darryn]

I see oversupply of DBSS

I see oversupply of BTO

I see oversupply of EC

I see oversupply of private apartments and condos

 

I see a bubble bursting soon ... If bubble burst because of over zealous actions by HDB, in the election year coming up soon, the political party got to "answer" ... not very nice outcome if so

Exactly. Who knows how much longer it will run is the question?

 

After that, will it fall hard and fast or slow with a soft landing?

 

I think hard and fast. Once it starts to drop, buyers won't buy, sellers will be hurting and NEED to sell. Not a good combination.

[ShepherdPie]

I see oversupply of DBSS

I see oversupply of BTO

I see oversupply of EC

I see oversupply of private apartments and condos

 

I see a bubble bursting soon ... If bubble burst because of over zealous actions by HDB, in the election year coming up soon, the political party got to "answer" ... not very nice outcome if so

How did u conclude that there is an over supply ?

Vacancy rate is at 3%. Population is growing at 100k a year. What abt new families ? So are we having enuff accommodations ??

[Duckduck]

How did u conclude that there is an over supply ?

Vacancy rate is at 3%. Population is growing at 100k a year. What abt new families ? So are we having enuff accommodations ??

 

For private prop, simple maths u can try to forecast yourself. u will need:

 

Population/job growth per year, Private prop demand as % of total demand, avg household size, and URA pipeline completion dates available from its website. Based on my forecast, there shld b net supply aka oversupply all the way till 2016. My forecast does not take into account unforeseen changes in jobs/population growth, interest rates etc & my population growth projection is above 100K per year... anyway its all theoretical lets see wat the market does.

 

net supply situation doesnt mean crash, just means there will alot more vacant units than units required thru population or job growth...

 

1 way garmen can delay over supply is to spread out n delay the TOPs further down...

Edited November 7, 2012 by Duckduck

[ShepherdPie]

Please run some numbers for me to see . As far as I know vacancy rate is low , unemployment is low. I really really can't get anything that tell me that there is a potential oversupply except that there is a record number of complete units. But all the other numbers are heathly leh.

[Fourth]

Until 2016 confirm won't drop. Other than low interest and abundance of cash in the market, we are unique that population have to increase like it or not. Either you see it or you don't.

[Duckduck]

Please run some numbers for me to see . As far as I know vacancy rate is low , unemployment is low. I really really can't get anything that tell me that there is a potential oversupply except that there is a record number of complete units. But all the other numbers are heathly leh.

 

ive run it on my excel already. sorry dont wish to share it in case people accuse me of being stupid etc lol.

 

to me demand= population/job growth. Vacancy n unemployment may be low now, but vacancy can go up if demand doesnt meet supply, assuming unemployment remains low. So im analyzing purely units supply n demand, not forecasting unemployment, interest rates etc.

 

as i said even if oversupply doesnt mean crash, but it does mean vacancies rise & possible rental price pressure, or it vacancy cld remain elevated but no crash due to low interest rates etc. But it does mean come the next recession, if supply demand doesnt go back to healthy/equal levels again, downside cld b more than expected.

Edited November 7, 2012 by Duckduck

[ShepherdPie]

ive run it on my excel already. sorry dont wish to share it in case people accuse me of being stupid etc lol.

 

to me demand= population/job growth. Vacancy n unemployment may be low now, but vacancy can go up if demand doesnt meet supply, assuming unemployment remains low. So im analyzing purely units supply n demand, not forecasting unemployment, interest rates etc.

I stand corrected. But need numbers to understand why u concluded otherwise. So has the demand buildup earlier been absorbed . I usd to hear alot of ppl having 2 Nd pty and I wonder if there is too much supply . But now I heard alot more ppl with no home and either renting or staying with relatives. I think the demand is bursting. And it will take alot alot of supply before the demand is fulfilled.