Alpha78 6th Gear May 22, 2014 Share May 22, 2014 My 2 cents on COE after gazing into my invisible crystal ball: 1. Substantial percentage of current owners are those owning under the 10-year 100% loan scheme during the $10k COE days (and they can barely afford the instalments). If the bulk of them cannot stomach a replacement car at 50% downpayment and the high current COE, demand will fall. 2. Government claws back a reasonable number of COEs for past over-estimations, in such a way that total COE supply is higher than current. If the above 2 assumptions come true, and with the 50% downpayment remaining in force, COE price should come down gradually. My guess is $20k to $40k COE is possible. Extra cent of input: If past behaviour is a guide, when COE is falling, more people will hold by the sidelines, believing it will fall further. That's where the COE price will keep dropping, until it's attractive enough to get a new car. ↡ Advertisement Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtth84 1st Gear May 22, 2014 Share May 22, 2014 Why do people rush to showrooms after the COE has been announced? The COE price is for the previous bidding, got nothing to do with the COE that they are going to get. It seems that majority of the car buyers have the wrong perception of the COE system, and the dealers aren't helping. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
starsecure1 Neutral Newbie May 22, 2014 Share May 22, 2014 (edited) Newspaper interviewed some car association guy today. He said that CAT A may go up to $68K and CAT B may shoot up to $70-75K next round.... TODAY or My Papers mentioned the car dealers comments COE will drop gradually through this and next year . With one set of desperate buyers rushing in but also another set of strong and patient buyers prepared to wait till COEs drop to be reasonable level before entering the purchases. The demand forces will be balance and coupled with increasing supply of COEs,hitting coe level at SGD50K+/- is very possible. i was quite disappointed with the advice given by our transport minister to car buyers last year asking us to be patient and wait till 2014 to enter the market. This is because for the first few months of 2014, COE pricing remains high as opposed to what he predicted. Then comes the annoucement of the increases of COE numbers in May - Jul 2014 and immediately COE head south. The current COE result is just some market correction and the bigger trends has been set as COE supply is increasing. Let's have faith in our transport minister's advice and be patient. The downward trend of COE has began just like our property prices....................................................................... Edited May 22, 2014 by starsecure1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lincoln 3rd Gear May 22, 2014 Share May 22, 2014 (edited) Based on your figures, if the final cars population has a 30% cut due to correction of previous mistakes, it would mean monthly figure of 1750 COEs. I do not think 30% cut is too drastic, and the 1750 quota would be pretty close to the current 1300 figure. So do you think COE will still go downhill? Everyone has been optimistic thinking there will be a crash but I am not too sure of that after looking at the figure. It could be worse if more correction is deemed necessary. Please spend some time to research on how the claw back for previous mistakes works. I will copied it here for you. (g) Refers to a total adjustment of -17,558 for over-projections in Quota Years 2008 and 2009, as well as expired COEs from 2009. An adjustment of -12,769 has been made in the quota from Apr 2010 to Jul 2012. The adjustment was deferred for one year from Aug 2012 to Jul 2013 and the remaining adjustment of -2,393 will be made by Jan 2015. Edited May 22, 2014 by Lincoln Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
car138 2nd Gear May 22, 2014 Share May 22, 2014 Why do people rush to showrooms after the COE has been announced? The COE price is for the previous bidding, got nothing to do with the COE that they are going to get. It seems that majority of the car buyers have the wrong perception of the COE system, and the dealers aren't helping. Usually, ADs will use the previous COE prices as a reference to adjust their new car prices for next 2 weeks if not wrong. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartlander Turbocharged May 22, 2014 Share May 22, 2014 30% CUT?!!!!!!!!!!! WHY? Do you know how much problem would it bring? Do you know then how under utilised will the road be? Don't be crazy!!! If is only 10% or even 20% cut, you think it would be serious enough for the minister to admit his mistake? Anyway, just my guess. As good as anybody's. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartlander Turbocharged May 22, 2014 Share May 22, 2014 Please spend some time to research on how the claw back for previous mistakes works. I will copied it here for you. (g) Refers to a total adjustment of -17,558 for over-projections in Quota Years 2008 and 2009, as well as expired COEs from 2009. An adjustment of -12,769 has been made in the quota from Apr 2010 to Jul 2012. The adjustment was deferred for one year from Aug 2012 to Jul 2013 and the remaining adjustment of -2,393 will be made by Jan 2015. So my question is, does LTA made this over-project mistake only in 2008 and 2009? You mean cutting back 17,558 COE would be the only step to right he wrong in view of the 630,000 cars on the road now? If like that, if I am the transport minister, why would I need to sia sway to admit mistake? Just sweep it under the carpet lah. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtth84 1st Gear May 22, 2014 Share May 22, 2014 Usually, ADs will use the previous COE prices as a reference to adjust their new car prices for next 2 weeks if not wrong. If that is the case, COE prices wouldn't have fluctuated. The general public is very much misled by the announcement of COE prices. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powxus 3rd Gear May 22, 2014 Share May 22, 2014 The adjustment was deferred for one year from Aug 2012 to Jul 2013 and the remaining adjustment of -2,393 will be made by Jan 2015. Adjustment of -2,393 per month from Jan 15. If so there will be limited down slide. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtth84 1st Gear May 22, 2014 Share May 22, 2014 Adjustment of -2,393 per month from Jan 15. If so there will be limited down slide. Have to take into account the number of cars scrapped too, which is not fixed. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltplussport Turbocharged May 22, 2014 Share May 22, 2014 Adjustment of -2,393 per month from Jan 15. If so there will be limited down slide. Adjustment will be made by Ian 2015. From my understanding, the adjustment is being made and will end at Jan 2015. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xers007 Supercharged May 22, 2014 Share May 22, 2014 30% CUT?!!!!!!!!!!! WHY? Do you know how much problem would it bring? Do you know then how under utilised will the road be? Don't be crazy!!! its not crazy... the roads are over utilized now and they are playing catch up trying to widen and adding more roads... the cut (not too sure about the % thou) is to correct their openly acknowledged mistake for over releasing of COE quota that caused the COE price plunged during the 2006 - 2010 period.. but i believe the cut will gradually lessen once the road infra has improved... but dont know how long it will take lah... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltplussport Turbocharged May 22, 2014 Share May 22, 2014 If is only 10% or even 20% cut, you think it would be serious enough for the minister to admit his mistake? Anyway, just my guess. As good as anybody's. So you are just another PAP hater, I don't think I can talk reason with you. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powxus 3rd Gear May 22, 2014 Share May 22, 2014 (edited) Adjustment will be made by Ian 2015. From my understanding, the adjustment is being made and will end at Jan 2015. Current adjustment from May - Jul 14 is -800. From Jan 15 onward it will be -2,393 which is 3 times more. We will need a huge increase of supply to offset this increase in crawl back. Edited May 22, 2014 by Powxus Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltplussport Turbocharged May 22, 2014 Share May 22, 2014 Please spend some time to research on how the claw back for previous mistakes works. I will copied it here for you. (g) Refers to a total adjustment of -17,558 for over-projections in Quota Years 2008 and 2009, as well as expired COEs from 2009. An adjustment of -12,769 has been made in the quota from Apr 2010 to Jul 2012. The adjustment was deferred for one year from Aug 2012 to Jul 2013 and the remaining adjustment of -2,393 will be made by Jan 2015. I believe they claw back only for 2008 and 2009 is because from 2015 to 2017, where the COE is abundant, they can just claw back from those who deregister their cars directly. Mean issuing less COE as compared to the number deregistered. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltplussport Turbocharged May 22, 2014 Share May 22, 2014 Current adjustment from May - Jul 14 is -800. From Jan 15 onward it will be -2,393 which is 3 times more. We will need a huge increase of supply to offset this increase in crawl back. No la, they have already clawed back 12789 until july 2013. So from Aug 2013 to Jan 2015, they will need to claw back another around 4800 COEs. So the 4800 divided by 18 months, so on average they are clawing back 200 over coe per month, or 100 over per bidding. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltplussport Turbocharged May 22, 2014 Share May 22, 2014 (edited) its not crazy... the roads are over utilized now and they are playing catch up trying to widen and adding more roads... the cut (not too sure about the % thou) is to correct their openly acknowledged mistake for over releasing of COE quota that caused the COE price plunged during the 2006 - 2010 period.. but i believe the cut will gradually lessen once the road infra has improved... but dont know how long it will take lah... I don't think our traffic currently is so bad that they have to cut 30%(180000 private cars) from the road, but everyone be prepared for zero or little growth on car population for the next 5 years from 2015 to 2019. Edited May 22, 2014 by Coltplussport Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
sam138 1st Gear May 22, 2014 Share May 22, 2014 comes the annoucement of the increases of COE numbers in May - Jul 2014 and immediately COE head south. The current COE result is just some market correction and the bigger trends has been set as COE supply increase gradually Let's have faith in our transport minister's advice and be patient. The downward trend of COE has began just like our property prices....................................................................... Yes that's spot on ^^ It has begun....... :) ↡ Advertisement Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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