COE quota up for February to April 2015

[Andyngps]

Another thing to ponder is this, another point in time when we have a similar coe quota was back in 2010, coe price was only in the region of $30k. So why is it that with a similar quota 5 years later, people are still saying coe must be $60k? Is it because this increase is expected so the price will not drop? Do we really need a black swan event for coe to come back down to $30k?

In 2011, using Cat A, quota was about 500-600 for Cat A and it was in the range of 40-50k. Starting May 2014, with same quota, but COE is in the range of 60-70K (about 20k more). Simply put, it is difficult to know how much COE will really end up with. General and mass sentiments is it will drop, but just no idea how much will it drop. If using simple math as above, one can also say Cat A will probably end up in the range of 50k, which is already a nice correction from current. The reduction of vehicle growth does affect the price, and it is not just based on coe quota alone. If say garments allowed vehicle growth rate to be at similar 3% or more, perhaps a similar coe quota may give you the 2010 prices. I may be wrong but just my thoughts.

[Damienic]

I personally believe for COE premium to come down to 30K, the quota needs to be at a similar level seen during the years of 2007-2008. We are at the moment still quite far from that level even if assuming another two rounds of approx 20% quota increase in next two quarters. At that time the COE is consistently below 20k and have even gone to below 10k. In a way I also think the days of 10k COE will never come back even in the event of drastic quota increase, cos its the way the population demographics and affluency that have evolved in the last 4-5 yrs. Same, for property prices, no matter how bad the next recession is going to be, it will not be possible to go back to the days where it is possible to buy a brand new 3bedroom condo at 500k.

Edited January 16, 2015 by Damienic

[Piyopico]

While I do not know whether the govt will call for an election with COE at 100k I know for sure they called for one when property prices were rising faster than you can blink back in 2011. That time we had lots of angry young couples priced out of a roof. They called for an election.

 

This time you think they will hesitate because 50,000 car owners gotto pay 30k more and kpkb?

 

Drop it should. Can wait then wait. No point staring at the price every two weeks cos a drop of 10k may only equate to a drop in car price of 5k. Just do your sums and buy what you can afford and buy when you are ready. To some, a COE of 70k is acceptable. To others they wanna buy only below 30k. Others wanna wait to see how low it can drop before they decide.

 

It's affordability you need to look at. Not how much is the COE. Even if COE is $1 dun buy if you cannot afford to upkeep a car. Who knows in two years time whether they will intro satellite ERP.

[Lincoln]

Another interesting advise I can see regularly on this forum is can afford just buy. It is a good advise in general, but it is not interesting or value adding to a buyer who want the biggest bang for his buck. It is as good as saying can afford to buy new clothes just buy new clothes. Can afford to eat good steak just go and eat.

 

Everyone is unique in his own situation. You need to understand your costs of waiting (i.e. family needs, costs of additional tspt time without a car, current car's condition and servicing needs etc.) vs. the potential money you can saved from waiting for cheap COE. For some (e.g. a big towkay or busy man with a nagging wife), he dun have much time to wait. His costs of waiting is higher. His face is more important. His nagging from wife for demands for a new car is too hard to bear.

 

The longer you wait the lower it is (I certainly think so, see my previous post). However, in your own situation, can you wait all the way to 2017 or to the pt where COE price is lowest?

Edited January 16, 2015 by Lincoln

[Piyopico]

Another interesting advise I can see regularly on this forum is can afford just buy. It is a good advise in general, but it is not interesting or value adding to a buyer who want the biggest bang for his buck. It is as good as saying can afford to buy new clothes just buy new clothes. Can afford to eat good steak just go and eat.

 

Everyone is unique in his own situation. You need to understand your costs of waiting (i.e. family needs, costs of additional tspt time without a car, current car's condition and servicing needs etc.) vs. the potential money you can saved from waiting for cheap COE. For some (e.g. a big towkay or busy man with a nagging wife), he dun have to wait. His costs of waiting is higher.

Price is only one component of affordability. Having a wife made to take MRT and the consequent nagging is also a factor. Can I afford it? Some people may find it worthwhile to pay and shut the wife up.

 

That may be of greater value...............

 

😁

[Hosaybo]

Me other way round.....my wife asked me not to buy. Take taxi no need stress parking and save $$$. But I stress want taxi cannot find one.

[Jp66]

In 2011, using Cat A, quota was about 500-600 for Cat A and it was in the range of 40-50k. Starting May 2014, with same quota, but COE is in the range of 60-70K (about 20k more). Simply put, it is difficult to know how much COE will really end up with.......

Very simple. In 2011, people compare against the lowest price in 2009, which is $1020, so 40-50K is the max they are willing to pay. However, in 2014, people compare against highest price in 2013, which is $92,100, 20-30K saving is a lot and thus they are willing to commit.

[Jp66]

sorry hor. Got $1, walk, got $10, take bus, got $100 take taxi, got $1,000 can rent a car, got $10,000 can charter transport, got $100,000, can buy a car.

Clothing, food, housing and commute. The four basic necessities in everyone's life.

 

Got $1, take bus, got $10 take taxi, got $100 can rent a car, got $1000 can charter transport, got $100000, can buy a car.

 

[Andyngps]

Very simple. In 2011, people compare against the lowest price in 2009, which is $1020, so 40-50K is the max they are willing to pay. However, in 2014, people compare against highest price in 2013, which is $92,100, 20-30K saving is a lot and thus they are willing to commit.

So mid point everyone's happy. Lol.

[Voodooman]

 

errm i don't really understand your point

 

i said it won't be used as an election goody in the sense that they engineer a price drop in COE because it is a no win situation for them

 

they probably would leave it as it is and try to take the attention on it away from voters

 

by disagreeing with me, are you saying that they will use it as an election goody to swing votes?

 

No lah, don't be so sensitive.....

 

I just don't agree with your assertion that "COE prices will depend on the free market as repeatedly stressed by the govt and that there will be no COE election goodies".

 

I thought the stupid Cat A engine power rule was not quite free market and meant to help middle class to afford private transport and LTY's talking down of the market (ie more COE coming) are in some ways pre-election "goodies". It might not have been very effective but they are certainly trying to ruin in sky high COE prices, especially for Cat A, so as to sweeten the ground a little for the, some say, 2015 GE.

 

[Vinceng]

I think coe price over feb-apr period should maintain or drop, shdn't go up somemore at least!

 

 

$1 drop is also a drop. The big question is how big a drop, if any at all.

sorry hor. Got $1, walk, got $10, take bus, got $100 take taxi, got $1,000 can rent a car, got $10,000 can charter transport, got $100,000, can buy a car.

 

Realistically, how many car buyers have $100k cash on hand?

 

$100k is a lot of money, which many in lesser developed countries never get to see, earn or accumulate in their lifetime.

[Blackyv]

$1 drop is also a drop. The big question is how big a drop, if any at all.

 

Realistically, how many car buyers have $100k cash on hand?

 

$100k is a lot of money, which many in lesser developed countries never get to see, earn or accumulate in their lifetime.

Yalor, and if ones saved let's say $150k cash over years of slogging, will he dump in $100k just like that?..

[Voodooman]

Me other way round.....my wife asked me not to buy. Take taxi no need stress parking and save $$$. But I stress want taxi cannot find one.

You have a humble and thrifty wife. Nowsaday, all want big house, big car and big Gucci/ LV bags.

Me is one of those.

Had booked Cat A car from current Cat B ride, and present Cat A models are as good as past Cat B cars. Can also reduce out front $$$.

Good for you, buy something you can comfortably afford. Better than renewing COE as a new Cat A car can be better than a 10 years old Cat B car given technological advances made in the last 10 years in terms of power, efficiency and safety (with some exceptions, of course).

[Angcheek]

$1 drop is also a drop. The big question is how big a drop, if any at all.

 

Realistically, how many car buyers have $100k cash on hand?

 

$100k is a lot of money, which many in lesser developed countries never get to see, earn or accumulate in their lifetime.

 

 

MCF member many very rich de .......... see the Merc and BMW tread can tell already

[serenade]

Despite the anticipated bumper crop of COE from deregistrations, the ultimate determining factor will be how many of those deregistering will give up owning a car, and how many fewer are waiting at the side to jump in once COE drops.

 

From my circle of friends and myself included, we are not giving up driving. We downsize and so even though give up COE from deregistering cars, we will still be in the hunt to bid for another COE. Only those who are economically challenged, or whose health has worsened will be giving up their cars for good. But there are many first time buyers waiting to jump in to bid for those extra COE in pot from those giving up driving.

 

As for myself, my car has reached 10 years. 10 years ago, my Cat B COE cost me $16k. This month my COE cost me $70k as bid by the dealer. So on paper I have given up my old COE, but I have jumped back right in with a higher COE because I still need a car given my family situation and where I live with limited public transport. Okay, this is just an excuse. I like cars, I like driving and I like to tinker with them. So my new car is a pleasure for the next 10 years.

 

And as COE plus taxes costs so much (more than car price payabe to dealer), I went for something bigger yet more frugal on fuel to max the COE worth.

 

These are just my personal thoughts and actions.

[Voodooman]

Despite the anticipated bumper crop of COE from deregistrations, the ultimate determining factor will be how many of those deregistering will give up owning a car, and how many fewer are waiting at the side to jump in once COE drops.

 

From my circle of friends and myself included, we are not giving up driving. We downsize and so even though give up COE from deregistering cars, we will still be in the hunt to bid for another COE. Only those who are economically challenged, or whose health has worsened will be giving up their cars for good. But there are many first time buyers waiting to jump in to bid for those extra COE in pot from those giving up driving.

 

As for myself, my car has reached 10 years. 10 years ago, my Cat B COE cost me $16k. This month my COE cost me $70k as bid by the dealer. So on paper I have given up my old COE, but I have jumped back right in with a higher COE because I still need a car given my family situation and where I live with limited public transport. Okay, this is just an excuse. I like cars, I like driving and I like to tinker with them. So my new car is a pleasure for the next 10 years.

 

And as COE plus taxes costs so much (more than car price payabe to dealer), I went for something bigger yet more frugal on fuel to max the COE worth.

 

These are just my personal thoughts and actions.

What did you buy?

 

 

MCF member many very rich de .......... see the Merc and BMW tread can tell already

Yeah, Cat B has been stable at 70-80k for a while, meaning many many have at least 100k in cash.

[Angcheek]

Yeah, Cat B has been stable at 70-80k for a while, meaning many many have at least 100k in cash.

Ya. Even after overtrade still will be over 200k roughly .

[Chucky2007]

 

that group of plp pay $0 downpayment and got a 10 yrs loan... Even with peanut pay of 2K/ mth. They can just go in and buy car.

 

Now? The same group of plp have to fork out 50K for downpayment.... How many plp from this group can affort? Well, thats a million dollars question. We dont know...

maybe this group of people 10 years later earn 5-10x more monthly liao.. Hehe.. Kidding..

 

But agree with you lah.. The 50% downpayment is a deterrent.. Because of this rule, I delayed my purchase to later date even though car is 6.5 year old.. 75k downpayment for a $150k car is opportunity cost to me.. I am damn kiasu hence need to further set aside more savings first before down that 75k to buy a depreciating asset. Actually old car also damn shiok.. Don't care about upkeep scratches and dings to doors.