2015 Mar, 2nd COE Bidding Exercise

[Mz3SP0907]

yup. ADs are good at this.... enticing.

 

I was at AD before CNY... the deal was so enticing... but I hold my horses... buay sai luan luan chiong, as I am not in a hurry to commit at the moment... current ride still have 2.5 yrs to go....

don't have to think ... AD will offer very "attractive" trade-in and overtrade for existing owner to change car

just like when AD took back 2009 sibei low COE car with sibei high trade-in value just for owner to change car in 2013

if just calculate the parf and coe for the 2009 car ... there is no way AD can offer such high trade-in value

AD got a lot of kangtow to "recycle" the new 2-3 years car ... they are damn good to entice car owner to keep rolling $$$ on new car ... after 3 years supposely still got 2 years loan left then sign for new 5 years loan again and without or with little ($10k-$20k) top up

AD sure know how to make money ... you don't have to worry for them ... muahahaha

 

 

 

[Wt_know]

10 years loan? muahahahaha

those who take 10 years loan do not deserve to change car

 

i'm talking about 5 years loan 2013 car

by 2016 loan balance would be 2+- years only

these group can change car with or without top up

 

changing car 3+- years depreciation sure high la ... everyone know that

but the itchy backside dark force to change car with little or without top up is sibei strong ... lol

 

the question is always ... paid up 5 years loan and then drive another 5 years no installment

or change car and continue to pay installments again and again ... rolling over

AD is sibei tok kong in enticing owner to roll and roll ... lol

 

if not AD jiak sai liao ....

history already shown ... when coe is low ...

7/10 car you see on the road is *new plate* regardless what is the depreciation ...

 

buying car is an irrational thinking and was never a rational one

if rational ... every car should be driven for 10 years for its optimal depreciation

many change in year 3, 5, 6, 7, etc

those who bought 2-3 years old car ... say cheaper but the depreciation is as good as new car

just that the upfront or total payment is lower ... but that does not mean the car is cheap

if putting the rational thinking cap ... there will only be 1-to-1 coe replacement every 10 year and there is no used car ... lol

Edited March 19, 2015 by Wt_know

[FastNsteady]

 

 

i am one of those playing the waiting game..and i don't even need to take a loan to buy car... lol.. just that since there is no real urge for me to change then i might as well wait... $$ hard to earn mah dont want to contribute to ah gong fund.. haha..

 

but u r also correct.. i got friend playing waiting game becos he want to reduce his outfront cash payment as much as possible..

I thought money is for us to spend. If only earn and no spend, earn for what ah?

[kingfisher1688]

 

Number of COE is constant plus the 0.25% growth which they may lowered to zero. Basically COE is a musical chair, with fix number of chairs but increasing number of people trying to get a seat due to increase in population. At the end of the day, you can get a seat only if someone gives up the seat and decide to stand.

 

Totally agree with your good analogy.

 

To add on, those people playing the musical chair now are the ones who are willing to pay >$60k COE.

 

For those people waiting to play the musical chairs at $40k level, they will have to wait until all the high paying players finish their game first.

[Googoo]

I thought money is for us to spend. If only earn and no spend, earn for what ah?

 

err, spend on holidays, house, other stuff loh.. haha.. tons of other things to spend on.. having said that, it doesn't mean when i buy car i have no money for those items.. aya i am just those don't wish to surrender so much $$ to our dear LTA.. so try try luck to wait loh. haha.

[Lincoln]

 

Totally agree with your good analogy.

 

To add on, those people playing the musical chair now are the ones who are willing to pay >$60k COE.

 

For those people waiting to play the musical chairs at $40k level, they will have to wait until all the high paying players finish their game first.

 

The current 450k occupying a seat had paid <$35k for their COEs. For prices to stay the same as now is expecting each and everyone of them are replaced by someone who is willing to pay >$60k COE.

Edited March 19, 2015 by Lincoln

[Piyopico]

 

The current 450k occupying a seat had paid <$35k for their COEs. For prices to stay the same as now is expecting each and everyone of them are replaced by someone who is willing to pay >$60k COE.

These people ten years ago paid $2000. Now paid $4000.

 

It is not so simple.

 

Ten years ago chicken rice $2. Now if everyone charge $4 means you dun eat?

[Enye]

Dun quite get the logic how the 70k COE owner would scrap and buy new so readily.

Assuming the $30k COE scenario happen, how much can one take back for a 2-year old car bought at COE 65k with intial purchase price of $125k, ARF $16k?

Is it COE (prorated 8/10=$52k) + ARF (75% of $16k=12k) + scrap/body ($20k?) = total of $84k

Spread this over 2 years, the depre is $41k/2 or $20k per year!

For sure must scrap cost no one in the right mind will buy this second-hand car at that point.

All this not factoring finance/convenants. Hence, I thought such owners are more likely stuck with the car.

History has shown that as long as no cash upfront is needed, it is very easy to get people to change cars.

 

Drive new cars with the same installment every month. Now this is a proposition few can resist.

 

Who cares about high short term dep on the old car?

 

😄

[yo2020]

10 years loan? muahahahaha

those who take 10 years loan do not deserve to change car

 

i'm talking about 5 years loan 2013 car

by 2016 loan balance would be 2+- years only

these group can change car with or without top up

 

 

Scenario 4)

 

2013 Oct, COE=$77k, Altis=$130k.

 

if loan taken is 50% at 1.88% interest over 5yrs, with down payment $65k

after 28 mths, total instalment paid is $33k, so:

a) to settle loan, need $65k + $6k - $33k - $2k = $36k (note: $2k is based on Rule 78)

b) paper value = $59k PCOE + $11k PARF = $70k

c) body value = mayb $5k (assuming to scrap as COE by then is low)

 

after settle loan, can get bck $39k.

total spent after 28 mths = $65k + $33k = $98k!!

total nett spent = $98k - $39k = $59k!!!

total nett spent per yr = $59k / 28 mths = $25k!!!!

 

[Powxus]

 

 

Scenario 4)

 

2013 Oct, COE=$77k, Altis=$130k.

 

if loan taken is 50% at 1.88% interest over 5yrs, with down payment $65k

after 28 mths, total instalment paid is $33k, so:

a) to settle loan, need $65k + $6k - $33k - $2k = $36k (note: $2k is based on Rule 78)

b) paper value = $59k PCOE + $11k PARF = $70k

c) body value = mayb $5k (assuming to scrap as COE by then is low)

 

after settle loan, can get bck $39k.

total spent after 28 mths = $65k + $33k = $98k!!

total nett spent = $98k - $39k = $59k!!!

total nett spent per yr = $59k / 28 mths = $25k!!!!

 

 

Definitely will lose once COE crash. You hold or sell sure lose. It's already a sunken cost so people will look into reducing their monthly installment with a new low cost car if they have money.

[Lincoln]

These people ten years ago paid $2000. Now paid $4000.

 

It is not so simple.

 

Ten years ago chicken rice $2. Now if everyone charge $4 means you dun eat?

 

Well, not harm waiting to see if everyone is willing to pay the "$4 chicken rice"? If indeed that's the case, then bite the bullet. To be honest, most owners are taking all possible time to wait. So, that is a huge indicator/signal on what majority think about the trend of the COE price.

[Piyopico]

 

Well, not harm waiting to see if everyone is willing to pay the "$4 chicken rice"? If indeed that's the case, then bite the bullet. To be honest, most owners are taking all possible time to wait. So, that is a huge indicator/signal on what majority think about the trend of the COE price.

True. That's why I say buy if you can afford to buy. Wait if you can afford to wait.

 

If cannot afford dun buy even if COE is low cos you will get a lot of issues later when oil prices go back up, satellite ERP gets implemented etc.

[serenade]

Was at AD servicing car and saw many people inking deals for Cat A. Demand still very strong.

[Forte3737]

Was at AD servicing car and saw many people inking deals for Cat A. Demand still very strong.

Which AD

[Crosswind]

if u suggest that bro crosswind say he is a bit worried, scarly he ask him to top up instead then how?!

 

i've talked to my SE with regards to the COE bidding, no gurantees but he mentioned verbally very high chance will get car but dont know when and said now get COE also no use cos no car to pass to me also.....i guess i will just wait

[subarudreamer]

that's good. do keep us updated. at the rate coe is going up, BM is going to make a loss selling to you. i'm very curious to know if they will do that. :)

 

 

i've talked to my SE with regards to the COE bidding, no gurantees but he mentioned verbally very high chance will get car but dont know when and said now get COE also no use cos no car to pass to me also.....i guess i will just wait

 

[Wt_know]

you have not factor in the "overtrade" that dealer will give to entice buyer to buy new car ...

whatever paid is already written off

as long as no need to top up or top up abit and continue to pay "similar" monthly installment ... people will change car

whether the first 2 years depreciation was $25k ... it has already passed ... especially if there is another car the owner want to change or dislike the current car

 

 

Scenario 4)

 

2013 Oct, COE=$77k, Altis=$130k.

 

if loan taken is 50% at 1.88% interest over 5yrs, with down payment $65k

after 28 mths, total instalment paid is $33k, so:

a) to settle loan, need $65k + $6k - $33k - $2k = $36k (note: $2k is based on Rule 78)

b) paper value = $59k PCOE + $11k PARF = $70k

c) body value = mayb $5k (assuming to scrap as COE by then is low)

 

after settle loan, can get bck $39k.

total spent after 28 mths = $65k + $33k = $98k!!

total nett spent = $98k - $39k = $59k!!!

total nett spent per yr = $59k / 28 mths = $25k!!!!

 

standard anwser

why they didn't ask you no need to sign the dotted line because there is no car to pass to you

 

i've talked to my SE with regards to the COE bidding, no gurantees but he mentioned verbally very high chance will get car but dont know when and said now get COE also no use cos no car to pass to me also.....i guess i will just wait

Edited March 19, 2015 by Wt_know

[serenade]

Which AD

 

My mistake. The cars are Cat B despite being 1.6L. C&C were inking CLA/A class.