acetron 2nd Gear April 18, 2016 Share April 18, 2016 it makes sense for 3rd party service provider to increase their fleet especially when there is a bumper crop of COE. once this pool of COE dries up in 2 to 3 years time, it will make it difficult for new entrance to enter this market. As their fleet of cars are new, it can anytime last for the next 7 years before selling them into the used car market. Looks like this market will be dominated by these service provider, we car owners might also be sucked into the system just to own a car...... ↡ Advertisement 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricChan 5th Gear April 18, 2016 Share April 18, 2016 (edited) BBTW, I have also spend some time thinking the implications of the shared car services expansion, here's my thoughts. Lets start off with the assumption that the shared car services and taxis expansion is permanent... Next assume that these services like to keep their fleet new, ie cars are 1 - 3 year old. Assume that they are going to triple the size of the current fleet, which I think is a reasonable assumption since there are 28 000 cabs registered currently. So over the next 1 year, they have to add 18 000 cars to the shared services to the 10 000 currently in play. 18 000 / 24 auctions = 750 bids per auction. With the current number of quota, that's about 1 out of every 3 cars going to a shared car service. That will also mean that 18 000 former owners of private cars or 18 000 taxi drivers will converted. So, implication is that the current taxi fleet which is consuming Cat E will start to shrink as they lose cab drivers to shared car service. Returning these Cat E COEs to the pool. Also 3 - 4 years down the road, ie in 2020, the shared car services will add 18 000 cars to the second hand car market, as per assumption 2, just about when the COE quota volume heads southwards. This will flood the 2nd car market just about when COE prices is climbing north again and help push a significant price divergence between pre-owned cars and new cars again, ie pricing ratio for 2nd pre-owned cars will become attractive again. Why just sell into the used market here? I should think option is to scrap the paper value of the Coe and export to third world countries (to get at more value) ... Edited April 18, 2016 by EricChan Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Limwsv 5th Gear April 18, 2016 Share April 18, 2016 Why sell into the used market here? I should think option is to scrap the paper value of the Coe and export to third world countries (to get at more value) ... Hmm.. maybe you are right... okay scrap COE and send to imex for resale overseas. That will help bump back up the COEs that is going to be available post 2019.... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
G1234 3rd Gear April 18, 2016 Share April 18, 2016 Yes.. no change in behavior. Still playing cat and mouse with passengers. Number of people wanting a cab at those times still outwhelming taxis plus shared car services. No need to wait till 11:30 till midnight. Every morning I have problem getting cab to send kids to school around before 8 to 8:30. Some show available but just ignore when we wave. Think it's changing shift time? Uber and Grab usually out of service around those timing. Never could get one. Oh well. I just walk to the interchange to with 2 toddlers to take bus, then (hopefully able to) get taxi to go to work. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Limwsv 5th Gear April 18, 2016 Share April 18, 2016 So going forward, the mix of non-commercial vehicles is going to look something like this 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricChan 5th Gear April 18, 2016 Share April 18, 2016 (edited) Digressing: but you do know that there is a refer and earn program at uber. Meaning you refer a friend to drive on uber( whether his own or rented car from uber) you earn $300 per referral . You refer a second person another $300. What's the catch don't know, but go to their website and see. Edited April 18, 2016 by EricChan 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Char 5th Gear April 18, 2016 Share April 18, 2016 Über is it same like taxi only Citizen can drive right ? 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Limwsv 5th Gear April 18, 2016 Share April 18, 2016 No need to wait till 11:30 till midnight. Every morning I have problem getting cab to send kids to school around before 8 to 8:30. Some show available but just ignore when we wave. Think it's changing shift time? Uber and Grab usually out of service around those timing. Never could get one. Oh well. I just walk to the interchange to with 2 toddlers to take bus, then (hopefully able to) get taxi to go to work. It's probably going to get worse.... remember that a significant number of drivers going to Uber/Grabcar is coming from ex-taxi drivers... It's all over the news and publicly quoted that one of the major reasons is the ex-drivers prefer the freedom associated with these services, ie no SLA and so on... Also, a side effect that will probably be felt is that surge pricing will come into play during these hours to lure these recaliant Uber/Grabcar drivers out... so fare is going to increase during those peak hours. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricChan 5th Gear April 18, 2016 Share April 18, 2016 (edited) It's probably going to get worse.... remember that a significant number of drivers going to Uber/Grabcar is coming from ex-taxi drivers... It's all over the news and publicly quoted that one of the major reasons is the ex-drivers prefer the freedom associated with these services, ie no SLA and so on... Also, a side effect that will probably be felt is that surge pricing will come into play during these hours to lure these recaliant Uber/Grabcar drivers out... so fare is going to increase during those peak hours. Would uber make it more attractive that more taxi drivers will throw in the towel and get their ride from them and give us a bump in Coe pricing. This could be their game plan (get taxi drivers to join them, better status ...) Edited April 18, 2016 by EricChan Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackyv Turbocharged April 18, 2016 Share April 18, 2016 Über is it same like taxi only Citizen can drive right ? PR also can... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Limwsv 5th Gear April 18, 2016 Share April 18, 2016 (edited) Would uber make it more attractive that more taxi drivers will throw in the towel and get their ride from them and give us a bump in Coe pricing Don't know... no data... Taxi = Cat E COE. But taxi not owned by driver, owned by fleet management company. So will SMRT and so on continue holding to the 28 000 registered cabs if they start losing drivers, ie vehicle sitting in workshop and no one hire the vehicle as taxi shifu? My bet is not, but we will have to see won't we? Let's watch the taxi column and see what happens? http://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/M06-Vehs_by_Type.pdf BBTW, that's the other thing I have been trying to find out, ie number of registered taxi drivers... cannot find the data. That will tell us how many are giving up and shifting over to Uber-like services... There are two sources of drivers, ex-taxi drivers and partially employed people like insurance, housing agents and so on... If you look at the public hire vehicles market in terms of rides, then the implications are: 1. Number of rides remain constant (no one giving up cars yet and population is fairly constant, no additional rides because of these new services) 2. Supply side changes, Taxi drivers lost [<,>,=] Ex-taxi chauffeurs + new entrants chauffeurs My guess is that ex-taxi drivers will be working working smarter for their daily earnings and the new entrants are not fully committed, so supply may fall in the near future, especially during odd hours like morning rush and midnights and so on. Edited April 18, 2016 by Limwsv Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Char 5th Gear April 18, 2016 Share April 18, 2016 PR also can... Omg ! Very soon taxi company also set up car sharing company like Uber .... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricChan 5th Gear April 18, 2016 Share April 18, 2016 (edited) Don't know... no data... Taxi = Cat E COE. But taxi not owned by driver, owned by fleet management company. So will SMRT and so on continue holding to the 28 000 registered cabs if they start losing drivers, ie vehicle sitting in workshop and no one hire the vehicle as taxi shifu? My bet is not, but we will have to see won't we? Let's watch the taxi column and see what happens? http://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/M06-Vehs_by_Type.pdf I like it, rational based on data . But let me speculate further. Taxis normally have 2 drivers to my mind, one main and a relief driver, right? If the relief decides to splinter off to Uber, you got additional vehicle consumption . Then the main driver by himself may find it unpalatable to be paying so much for rental that he moves on to .... Edited April 18, 2016 by EricChan Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Limwsv 5th Gear April 18, 2016 Share April 18, 2016 I like it, rational based on data . But let me speculate further Taxis normally have 2 drivers to my mind, one main and a relief driver, right? If the relief decides to splinter off to Uber, you got additional vehicle consumption . Then the main driver may find it unpalatable to be paying so much for rental that he moves on to .... Agree.. see my modified post... the green light given by LTA is opening up a pandora box of interesting and unintended consequences.as effects ripple through the system. Hard to gauge the overall impact, may be good for the next 2 or 3 years as the economy re-engineer itself. As the services help provide gainful employment for those affected by the re-gearing. I like it, rational based on data . But let me speculate further Taxis normally have 2 drivers to my mind, one main and a relief driver, right? If the relief decides to splinter off to Uber, you got additional vehicle consumption . Then the main driver may find it unpalatable to be paying so much for rental that he moves on to .... Agree.. see my modified post... the green light given by LTA is opening up a pandora box of interesting and unintended consequences.as effects ripple through the system. Hard to gauge the overall impact, may be good for the next 2 or 3 years as the economy re-engineer itself. As the services help provide gainful employment for those affected by the re-gearing. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nav14 6th Gear April 18, 2016 Share April 18, 2016 Agree.. see my modified post... the green light given by LTA is opening up a pandora box of interesting and unintended consequences.as effects ripple through the system. Hard to gauge the overall impact, may be good for the next 2 or 3 years as the economy re-engineer itself. As the services help provide gainful employment for those affected by the re-gearing. Agree.. see my modified post... the green light given by LTA is opening up a pandora box of interesting and unintended consequences.as effects ripple through the system. Hard to gauge the overall impact, may be good for the next 2 or 3 years as the economy re-engineer itself. As the services help provide gainful employment for those affected by the re-gearing. Yes the govt has definitely opened up a Pandora box without addressing all issues comprehensively. Cannot imagine how long the taxi queues are going to get at Changi airport for example if most taxi drivers shift over to Uber /Grab and the policy of Uber/Grab unable to pick up passengers from taxi stops / roadside remain. If majority resort to calling for Uber at airports , can't imagine the mess in they getting picked up. This is just one example. Costs will increase especially with surge pricing. Tripadvisor will have more complaints from tourists about declining service standards in Singapore. PR also can... What PR? Work Permit also can . 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cumzilla 4th Gear April 18, 2016 Share April 18, 2016 how come the Cat E quota for this bidding exercise only 453? what happen to that 237? 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
acetron 2nd Gear April 18, 2016 Share April 18, 2016 how come the Cat E quota for this bidding exercise only 453? what happen to that 237? 237 for May 16 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlow 1st Gear April 18, 2016 Share April 18, 2016 237 for May 16 I believe it is for May 1st bidding. the leftovers from 1st bid always go to first bid, so May 1st bidding got bumper Cat E ↡ Advertisement Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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