If you think Property price has peak, think again !

[ShepherdPie]

South Beach $4000 psf. Capitol Eden close to that. Preview sold out. Alexandra View reserve site triggered. Price drop??.....

 

Dun bet on prices to go up next yr just because the acquistion cost of the land is higher..

 

You know Far East and Wing Tai bought "Floridian/Nexus" land at its peak in the asia crisis. Wing Tai didnt want to hold too long, so went ahead and cut the land and built Nexus and sell it at close to lose.

 

Far East hold on to the Floridian land until the next cycle abt 10 yrs later, then start to build.

Same goes to other Far East properties , they have trouble selling away. FE just hold and ride the cycle.

 

Look at Seahill, they know that mkt may not be able to digest so many units. So half the land, they use to make service apt.

 

It's all abt holding power!

Edited November 8, 2012 by ShepherdPie

[Soya]

Dun bet on prices to go up next yr just because the acquistion cost of the land is higher..

 

You know Far East and Wing Tai bought "Floridian/Nexus" land at its peak in the asia crisis. Wing Tai didnt want to hold too long, so went ahead and cut the land and built Nexus and sell it at close to lose.

 

Far East hold on to the Floridian land until the cycle abt 10 yrs later...

 

 

cost of land aside, last time inflation how much? construction last time how much? s'pore is a very diff place than it was in the 90s.

[ShepherdPie]

cost of land aside, last time inflation how much? construction last time how much? s'pore is a very diff place than it was in the 90s.

 

Like i said before ...

 

Everything works in a cycle....

To those that say prices will surely fall, i say, prices will come up one day.

To those that say prices will surely rise, i say, some day.. but dont bet on that day. Make sure you have enuff to "weather" the bad days.

 

Aniway, from my analysis, i dun see there is an oversupply and dun see there will be a big fall soon.

but then again, never say never...

 

I just cautiousing those ppl are are made to believe sales talks , such as land price goes up , prices surely will go up. Everything take with a pinch of salt.

 

you may think that i am confused.. but rather think that i stand corrected because i refused to take sides.

Edited November 8, 2012 by ShepherdPie

[Soya]

no doubt that property moves in cycles. question is at which point are prices correcting from. even if prices correct 10% tomorrow, it still cost more than in 2009.

 

 

[ShepherdPie]

no doubt that property moves in cycles. question is at which point are prices correcting from. even if prices correct 10% tomorrow, it still cost more than in 2009.

 

how do you define correction ? there will be ppl that sell their house 10% below the current valuation.

There also units where valuation increase over the last 3 yrs but prices didnt move much. e.g. Flamingo Valley. There are also units sold lower than the last calling price e.g. the sound.

Not forgetting that there are units that rose 10-30% since 2010.

 

Stats can only tell you so much... it really depends 50% on the unit that you are holding , 50% the mkt trend.

[Throttle2]

So have you decided your new car? CLS or the Hybrid 5

 

New car?

 

Eh, I just swop to 911 in Sep so am not considering anything until late 2013 maybe.

If i buy another car now, it will only be for my wife and she doesnt need a CLS350 for sure

Maybe E200 or jap SUV, something cheap will do

 

[Darryn]

Correction = bringing the market back into line with the overall trend

 

[Throttle2]

Can afford and cannot afford is very subjective...

 

Some ppl thinks that they can make the downpayment , bank willing to loan them and they have 1-2 mths cash buffer means they can afford.

 

Some ppl thinks that they can only afford if they can pay off their mortgage of their only home within 10 yrs.

 

Some ppl thinks that they can only affor if they can pay in full.

 

Good times or bad times ahead, we still need a roof over our head. So buying is a house is neccessarity, in order not to erode the cash position.

 

How much you want and can spend in a new house is also subjective.. Some thinks that as long as you can service the renovation loan, you can afford the renovation. Some of us think otherwise , of course.

 

Everything works in a cycle....

To those that say prices will surely fall, i say, prices will come up one day.

To those that say prices will surely rise, i say, some day.. but dont bet on that day. Make sure you have enuff to "weather" the bad days.

 

 

Well what i know is that:-

 

Those with money to buy , dont talk a lot

Those that talk a lot, dont have money to buy.

 

_roll eyes_

 

 

OK, I admit I talk a lot......

 

 

Edited November 8, 2012 by Throttle2

[ShepherdPie]

Ppl tat have $$ to buy, dont talk because they find that their audience is not in their league.

 

Those that talk and show off to his audience that he thinks little of, is more pathetic. Cos he has $$ to buy but no one to talk to ..

[Throttle2]

Ppl tat have $$ to buy, dont talk because they find that their audience is not in their league.

 

Those that talk and show off to his audience that he thinks little of, is more pathetic. Cos he has $$ to buy but no one to talk to ..

 

Hmmm, so which one are you?

 

You seem to talk a lot and know the market like the back of your hand.

Whats your next move?

 

Note: while i may quote you in my previous post, it was not a reference made to you personally.

But the above post is.

Edited November 8, 2012 by Throttle2

[Ngck]

I agree with you.

 

I think alot of people forgot how fortune are lost in 1997, of course lots of fortune made in 1998.

 

I am 37 this year and retrench from my first job then, after working for 8 mths.. And have seen friend father who is multi millionaire nearly bankrupt then.

 

I think anyone who is born after 1977 will hardly know how hard can assets fall

 

 

lol yup .... my friend father.... bunglow which can park a few cars.... downgrade to 3 room flat.

[Ronleech]

beware of choppy market...should have another major sell off before mkt pick up and drive to another high and collaspe like 1997....

[ShepherdPie]

Those that talk a lot, dont have money to buy.

 

Happy ?! Can we move on...

[HP_Lee]

New car?

 

Eh, I just swop to 911 in Sep so am not considering anything until late 2013 maybe.

If i buy another car now, it will only be for my wife and she doesnt need a CLS350 for sure

Maybe E200 or jap SUV, something cheap will do

 

Ya.. I think the COE is to ex- for now.

[Throttle2]

Ya.. I think the COE is to ex- for now.

 

New car now is for suckers only.

 

 

But if this goes on, we may all be forced to be suckers soon enough.

 

 

 

What am i saying, as it is , we are already suckers for the property here.

 

 

Edited November 8, 2012 by Throttle2

[Throttle2]

Those that talk a lot, dont have money to buy.

 

Happy ?! Can we move on...

 

 

Tsk tsk, why so upset?

Nail on the head?

 

Nobody stop you from moving on, what....heeeee

[HP_Lee]

ive run it on my excel already. sorry dont wish to share it in case people accuse me of being stupid etc lol.

 

to me demand= population/job growth. Vacancy n unemployment may be low now, but vacancy can go up if demand doesnt meet supply, assuming unemployment remains low. So im analyzing purely units supply n demand, not forecasting unemployment, interest rates etc.

 

as i said even if oversupply doesnt mean crash, but it does mean vacancies rise & possible rental price pressure, or it vacancy cld remain elevated but no crash due to low interest rates etc. But it does mean come the next recession, if supply demand doesnt go back to healthy/equal levels again, downside cld b more than expected.

 

Forecast is still a forecast. Even a good analyst have historically got more wrong than right. Can easily google investment analyst predication based on forecast. Its all about probability weightage. We know well that there are more odds against vs unemployment rate. No ones know when unemployment rate variable changes. This variable could be devil that will cause the house of cards to fall, if this goes wrong.

[HP_Lee]

New car now is for suckers only.

 

 

But if this goes on, we may all be forced to be suckers soon enough.

 

 

 

What am i saying, as it is , we are already suckers for the property here.

 

Well. Hopefully by the time my 2 cars COE expire in 9 years time, the transport system change for the better. Aleast for property, I won't be a sucker for this life time. But I worry for my children's future.