COE quota up for February to April 2015

[Kyrios]

Laydio these few days keep on playing adverts of motorshow good deals...hear until I vomit

 

for instance CLA zero downpayment but 1.6K per month payment?

 

Anyway the car I want no longer selling as brand new liao..have to buy used...and today I checked dealers not adjusting downwards prices yet..

[Simpleonly]

They will only adjust when they see AD start to drop

[Forte3737]

Experts' take.

 

 

 

Christopher Tan | The Straits Times | Thursday, Jan 15, 2015

SINGAPORE - Car buyers can look forward to lower prices in the coming months, on the back of a substantial increase in the certificate of entitlement (COE) quota.

According to figures released by the Land Transport Authority (LTA) yesterday, there will be 11,298 COEs available to car buyers in the February to April period - 23 per cent more than in the previous three months, and more than double the supply for the corresponding period last year.

The biggest beneficiaries will be those buying smaller cars, as the supply of Category A COEs (for cars up to 1,600cc and 130bhp) will be 41.3 per cent bigger than now.

Supply of Category B COEs (for cars above 1,600cc or 130bhp) will increase by nearly 27 per cent.

Dr Park Byung Joon, an urban transport management expert at SIM University, said the new quota should result in lower premiums for Category A "for sure", and "a little bit for Category B".

He envisaged Cat A premiums falling by more than 10 per cent.

Mr Ron Lim, general manager of Nissan agent Tan Chong Motor, noted that the Category A quota is now "pretty close to the magical number" of 1,000 COEs per tender, which he said would result in a meaningful drop in prices. "It'll be interesting to see if a correction will set in," he said.

Mr Lim added that the enlarged supply is "timely" because the Singapore Motorshow starting today is likely to lead to higher car sales. "It should absorb the increase in demand," he said.

Including certificates of entitlement for commercial vehicles and motorcycles, the February to April quota will have 14,114 COEs. This is 18.3 per cent more than the previous three-month quota.

 

The new quota is the first with a reduced 0.25 per cent cap on annual vehicle population growth.

The cap has been lowered systematically in recent years - from 3 per cent to 1.5 per cent in 2009, then to 1 per cent in 2012, and 0.5 per cent in 2013 - as the Government addresses what it deems to be an unsustainable vehicle population growth rate.

If the growth rate had remained at 0.5 per cent, it would have bumped up the new quota by almost 5 percentage points.

The LTA said that the latest quota includes a smaller Open category, which is now made up of 10 per cent of COEs from each of the other four categories, instead of the previous 15 per cent.

This is to address a vehicle population growth pattern that has been skewed in favour of cars.

Even though the Open category was originally meant to be a "safety valve" to prevent overheated prices in the other categories, it quickly became the sole domain of cars, especially bigger models. This is because sellers of big cars had bigger profit margins and could outbid others.

Dr Park of SIM University pointed out that the February to April quota is just the start of more liberal quotas.

Like other industry watchers, he expects the next several quotas to be even bigger, with supply peaking some time next year.

- See more at: http://transport.asiaone.com/news/general/story/bigger-coe-quota-pull-down-car-prices#sthash.HP5tosLz.dpuf

I disagree with the experts

What the experts fail to see is the replacement demand from those who scrap cars are even stronger.

Also got experts view in Oct 14 but COE ended up higher. I usually take such expert views with a pinch of salt especially if they are from car affiliates. Lol.

 

[Darryn]

Laydio these few days keep on playing adverts of motorshow good deals...hear until I vomit

 

for instance CLA zero downpayment but 1.6K per month payment?

 

Anyway the car I want no longer selling as brand new liao..have to buy used...and today I checked dealers not adjusting downwards prices yet..

This is so stupid -

 

the LAW is that must put at least 40 / 50% deposit but can publicly advertise something that is against the law?

 

What is govt doing?

 

What ladio you listening to? my radio onry got stamford talking about motorshow....no other promo

[Forte3737]

Maybe a leasing package?

This is so stupid -

 

the LAW is that must put at least 40 / 50% deposit but can publicly advertise something that is against the law?

 

What is govt doing?

 

What ladio you listening to? my radio onry got stamford talking about motorshow....no other promo

 

[Andyngps]

I disagree with the experts

 

What the experts fail to see is the replacement demand from those who scrap cars are even stronger.

 

I agree. Back in 2005, those who bought cars are probably having their own families by now. This is a strong reason for needing a car. The only way is if all of these who scrapped bought up all the used car and hence regenerating back the COE, then perhaps there might be a correction. But demand will still outstrip supply eventually. Edited January 15, 2015 by Andyngps

[Duckduck]

so do most feel COE will go up or will still fall some more?

[Hosaybo]

Can only depend on this qq and picanto driver who buy and loan 100% for 10 years to give up driving for good to have reduce demand.But some may have more earnings now and can pay now.

[Duckduck]

Lai lai .. we can all make our guesses .. the closest guess gets to ride with @babyblade ?

 

Roadrunner2029 - Cat A, lower slightly $55k-$60k. Cat B, $70k-$80k same or higher. Open CAT, $75k or higher.

 

 

 

ok lets make it more specific: Will COE be higher or lower by 2015 year end?

[Kyrios]

This is so stupid -

 

the LAW is that must put at least 40 / 50% deposit but can publicly advertise something that is against the law?

 

What is govt doing?

 

What ladio you listening to? my radio onry got stamford talking about motorshow....no other promo

Er Klass 95?

[Ktglfc]

 

ok lets make it more specific: Will COE be higher or lower by 2015 year end?

 

I hope, my hopes, it will be lower due to increase in nos as well as SG50...

But sometimes, things just don't turn out as it is ...

 

Still, a reduction of some % will be good enough... Maybe $40k coe for A at end of this year?

[Duckduck]

 

I hope, my hopes, it will be lower due to increase in nos as well as SG50...

But sometimes, things just don't turn out as it is ...

 

Still, a reduction of some % will be good enough... Maybe $40k coe for A at end of this year?

 

k im gona start a separate poll thread

[Forte3737]

Wahh....Not possible lah.....if around 55-60K region...then good already

 

I hope, my hopes, it will be lower due to increase in nos as well as SG50...

But sometimes, things just don't turn out as it is ...

 

Still, a reduction of some % will be good enough... Maybe $40k coe for A at end of this year?

 

LOwer

 

ok lets make it more specific: Will COE be higher or lower by 2015 year end?

 

[BabyBlade]

Why am I tagged in this thread? Lol.

[cllq]

Why am I tagged in this thread? Lol.

 

u r always too mysterious and the guys all wanna get ur attn. lol

[Darryn]

Why am I tagged in this thread? Lol.

Because you're gorgeous and all the old tikopehs wanna date you?

[Matrix0405]

 

I hope, my hopes, it will be lower due to increase in nos as well as SG50...

But sometimes, things just don't turn out as it is ...

 

Still, a reduction of some % will be good enough... Maybe $40k coe for A at end of this year?

 

Very likely, if no of COE goes to 1400pcs. Needs about 850 for equilibrium pt. Beyond EP, price will come down. Before EP, increase in no. has no effect on Price.

Why am I tagged in this thread? Lol.

 

Babyblade is a girl? How come not featured in MCF magazine?

[Fcw75]

Erection confirm coming. Time to make us feel good.