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2016 Feb, 2nd COE Bidding Exercise

yo2020

By yo2020,
in General Car Discussion

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Limwsv

Limwsv

5th Gear

every week they will have new orders. 

 

as I was looking at FXT for few months and joined some FXT group chats, i noticed they fulfilled their delivery very fast, mostly in a month's time. 

 

dont worry it will trend lower, just a matter of how long it'll take

 

dont forget those that benefit during 2008-2009 when quota was actually reducing, but COE dropped due to GFC, are also aiming to get in if COE falls. 

 

need to ask Mr Li, what is the min COE he would be expecting for these 2 years when there's a bumper crop. maybe can get a hint there. 

 

I think it will bottom out around $12K - $15K.  That's when the rest of the massed interested buyers from below 50% percentile will lock each other out by bidding beyond their planned budget.

 

Caveat, if the number of 1 - 4 years old cars are not scrapped and drive up the number of COE available.

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Limwsv

Limwsv

5th Gear

 

The COE supply drought will be in 2019, 3 years from now. By then, COE prices will easily skyrocket beyond $100K. COE prices will surge way before 2019 in anticipation of the drought. If you are comfortable with the price now, better go in now than later as the COE surge will be inevitable.

 

The worst is when your COE is expiring, and COE prices are high. You would have no choice but to buy a new car with high COE, or a used car with ridiculous depreciation that is higher than a new car.

 

 

Sorry, COE drought don't start in 2019.  Number of COE in 2019 will be equal to last year.  2020 will be equal to 2014.  Dry years are 2021 - 2024.   See table.

 

14j12sw.png

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Axela72

Axela72

5th Gear

don't think you will give this comment during a year ago. In summary, it is also base on current situation. I still remember last year u highlight to reach 50k COE will take/hover at sometime. That is also one of the reason why u decided to use the money to invest in property 1st, instead of waiting COE to drop till u can get yr 100k Toyota

 

 

I think it will bottom out around $12K - $15K.  That's when the rest of the massed interested buyers from below 50% percentile will lock each other out by bidding beyond their planned budget.

 

Caveat, if the number of 1 - 4 years old cars are not scrapped and drive up the number of COE available.

 

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Limwsv

Limwsv

5th Gear

My colleagues are all discussing to change car when COE drop. Wouldn't it make it more demand and thus higher price?

 

I assume this is an innocent question.

 

Stop and think, and ask yourself this question....

 

When has demand for COE ever been less than the supply?

 

Why has COE price being dropping since the 2014?

 

If you cannot find the answers yourself, you can go and read my COE analysis thread on section of supply and demand and budget.

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Limwsv

Limwsv

5th Gear
(edited)

don't think you will give this comment during a year ago. In summary, it is also base on current situation. I still remember last year u highlight to reach 50k COE will take/hover at sometime. That is also one of the reason why u decided to use the money to invest in property 1st, instead of waiting COE to drop till u can get yr 100k Toyota

 

Hmm... I thought it is obvious.  See below table available since it has came out.  It clearly shows that COE will bottom out around 10K - 20K.

I cannot be precise because I am working with 80-20 rule and the probability distribution is wide.  However, it should be around the number I just quoted.

 

It may not be in a graph form, but the table is a demand curve showing the expected demand to be fulfilled by the anticipated supply.

 

So, I am not sure why you think I am revising my stance?

 

2zgsqr9.png

Edited by Limwsv
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Axela72

Axela72

5th Gear
(edited)

from link:

 

http://www.mycarforum.com/topic/2699681-2015-2017-coe-trend-analysis-no-chit-chat-please/?p=5622529

 

http://www.mycarforum.com/topic/2699681-2015-2017-coe-trend-analysis-no-chit-chat-please/?p=5622742

 

http://www.mycarforum.com/topic/2700570-2015-nov-1st-coe-bidding-exercise/?p=5637299

 

Hmm... I thought it is obvious.  See below table available since it has came out.  It clearly shows that COE will bottom out around 10K - 20K.

I cannot be precise because I am working with 80-20 rule and the probability distribution is wide.  However, it should be around the number I just quoted.

 

It may not be in a graph form, but the table is a demand curve showing the expected demand to be fulfilled by the anticipated supply.

 

So, I am not sure why you think I am revising my stance?

 

 

 

Edited by Axela72
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Mkl22

Mkl22

Supersonic
(edited)

I assume this is an innocent question.

 

Stop and think, and ask yourself this question....

 

When has demand for COE ever been less than the supply?

 

Why has COE price being dropping since the 2014?

 

If you cannot find the answers yourself, you can go and read my COE analysis thread on section of supply and demand and budget.

There was! In CAT C in February March 2007. But that wasn't a true lack of demand but lack of vehicles available for sale.

 

Thus the $1 COE.

Edited by Mkl22
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Runforyourlife

Runforyourlife

5th Gear

Shit just got real. Exposed...

better still. Get her to join in the Subaru challenge.

 

Free COE included now. Just need to tahan 4 days.

Sorry bro, she cannot survive without a keyboard

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Wondertree

Wondertree

3rd Gear
From what I read in these replies, he's spot on regarding 100k corolla.
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Ahpan

Ahpan

1st Gear

Sorry, COE drought don't start in 2019.  Number of COE in 2019 will be equal to last year.  2020 will be equal to 2014.  Dry years are 2021 - 2024.   See table.

 

14j12sw.png

 

If I just look based at the 0-1 year car ownership, it was a spike from 1-6 years as more people owning cars.

This year should be a good time to buy new car. But buy before the people rush in to buy. :)

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_h_r_

_h_r_

2nd Gear
(edited)

Sorry, COE drought don't start in 2019.  Number of COE in 2019 will be equal to last year.  2020 will be equal to 2014.  Dry years are 2021 - 2024.   See table.

 

14j12sw.png

 

There will be a drastic drop in COE supply after 2018. In anticipation of the drop, the kan chiong spiders will rush in way before that. Coupled with the increase in population and inflation, stay tuned for $100K COE in the showroom near you.

 

I passed by Leng Kee just now. There are no shortage of people at car showrooms. Car demand is very high in Singapore and everyone seems to want to own a car. Those at the sidelines can continue to wait till they miss the boat. Like property in 2009, the rebound can be very fast and furious, with residents being so well off these days.

 

Edited by _h_r_
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Kia7200

Kia7200

5th Gear

Is it low COE leads to recession?

Or recession leads to low COE?

 

Confuse... confuse... :a-confused::a-confused:

Some champion from TOC or TRS will say after PAP won the election, the whole world kana recession
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flashbang

flashbang

Turbocharged

As an owner of a 57k COE car, I feel sour grapes for not getting one at the current COE if I had waited. I could have saved 10k+.

 

On the other hand I'm happy I can even afford it. Also happy it's going down so that friends and family can change car soon.

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helloeveryone

helloeveryone

2nd Gear

There will be a drastic drop in COE supply after 2018. In anticipation of the drop, the kan chiong spiders will rush in way before that. Coupled with the increase in population and inflation, stay tuned for $100K COE in the showroom near you.

 

I passed by Leng Kee just now. There are no shortage of people at car showrooms. Car demand is very high in Singapore and everyone seems to want to own a car. Those at the sidelines can continue to wait till they miss the boat. Like property in 2009, the rebound can be very fast and furious, with residents being so well off these days.

.... some ppl are waiting for years to buy 2nd property, but back off due to the ABSD. Since cannt afford to own condo any time soon in this year, might as well grab the car first when the coe drops..time is invaluable.
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Jusnel

Jusnel

6th Gear

As an owner of a 57k COE car, I feel sour grapes for not getting one at the current COE if I had waited. I could have saved 10k+.

 

On the other hand I'm happy I can even afford it. Also happy it's going down so that friends and family can change car soon.

No need to feel so sour grape with 57k COE. Think of those with higher COE than u, then u will feel better. Worse is those 90k COE
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