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Private Property prices......still up or down? Part II

RadX

By RadX,
in Property Buzz

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BanCoe

BanCoe

Hypersonic

You wannt buy there also now??? or you got  [gorgeous]  there also can benefit ?? [laugh]

 

Just saw msia cutting tax to clear over supply of housing.

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Sdf4786k

Sdf4786k

Twincharged

You wannt buy there also now??? or you got  [gorgeous]  there also can benefit ?? [laugh]

By Malaysia, if its KL side, the prices are still rather stiff. Its the JB side that is quite cui ..

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Showster

Showster

Twincharged

will there be a correction soon in the property market.?

 

seeing the 8% vacancy seems alot of unit. At the same time, the land bank has also been released at a slower rate. I suppose the uptick may not be as aggressive for 2019.

Ugly head of inflation at our doorstep.

 

Vacancy already below 7%.

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Showster

Showster

Twincharged
(edited)

On average, we will be looking at 4-5 new property launch every month in 2019. I don't think the market can absorb so many units with the weakening economy, higher interest rate and slowing en bloc. There are still a lot of unsold units from 2018. We might see a price correction of about 5% with respect to 2018.

That was what everyone thought in 2011-2012.

 

No kidding.

 

https://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2012/1/48989/new-housing-supply-to-ease-prices-further

Edited by Showster
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Mercs

Mercs

Hypersonic

will there be a correction soon in the property market.?

 

seeing the 8% vacancy seems alot of unit. At the same time, the land bank has also been released at a slower rate. I suppose the uptick may not be as aggressive for 2019.

As mentioned in Oct [:)]

 

Current and immediate future to be unexciting due to latest absd CM to both buyer/developer.

Developers business as usual to launch their projects while maintaining at high psf, continued demand to come from first timers/upgraders/enbloc millionaires to support prices.

Property prices to remain rangebound till end 2018, URA quarterly data at plus/minus within 2%, wait and see approach from both buyer/developer.

 

2019 could see further psf upside when more buyers get used to the absd increase, more enbloc millionaires receive their sale proceeds, projects that have cleared some number units to launch at higher psf for future phases. URA quarterly data minus 1% to plus 3%.

 

All said, I do not see property prices moving up too much in 2018-2019 as current sale psf prices is already at a high with new benchmark set.

 

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Mercs

Mercs

Hypersonic

On average, we will be looking at 4-5 new property launch every month in 2019. I don't think the market can absorb so many units with the weakening economy, higher interest rate and slowing en bloc. There are still a lot of unsold units from 2018. We might see a price correction of about 5% with respect to 2018.

My personal thoughts reply as above #9295, analysts projection as per article.

 

https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/residential-market-see-spike-new-launches

Residential market to see spike in new launches

Dec 31, 2018

Price sensitivity

 

Developers are aware of home buyers’ “price sensitivity” and are pricing their projects accordingly to attract them, says Gafoor.

 

ZACD’s Mak agrees, saying: “Most developers are realistic. They know it will take more than a year to sell all units in a project with more than 400 units. They are unlikely to slash prices to sell quickly, as this will hit their bottom line.”

 

Selling out projects too quickly will mean having to buy new land parcels at a higher cost — given the 5% ABSD that they have to pay upfront, adds Mak. “It makes more sense for them to maintain their prices at a steady pace of sales until after the fourth year [of launch]. It’s only then that developers have to decide whether to adjust prices. They will still have one more year to sell all the units in the project before the 25% ABSD kicks in at the end of the fifth year.”

 

As such, Mak projects price growth of “0% to 3%” for 2019.

post-18880-0-51049400-1546254213_thumb.jpg

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Showster

Showster

Twincharged
(edited)

My personal thoughts reply as above #9295, analysts projection as per article.

 

https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/residential-market-see-spike-new-launches

Residential market to see spike in new launches

Dec 31, 2018

 

District 5 and 19 tops the numbers.

 

But these numbers also comes from enbloc sales concluded.

 

For example, district 5.

 

Park West 432 units

Normanton Park 488

Brookvale Park 160

Vista Park 209

 

Not aware of others in district 5 but here it can be observed that the numbers of units sucked into vacuum from these 4 developments alone constitutes 1289 large units.

 

Whether they buy replacement or rent, it will play a supportive role to the market.

 

Moreover, the projected maximum number of units may not be met as Developers may not develop to maximum number of units.

 

If they do, then the units may be too small for replacement and may not be large enough to serve the actual demand from the enbloccers.

Edited by Showster
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F10_Blackhawk

F10_Blackhawk

4th Gear

Yup the rich get richer, just holding 2.4yrs profit $5.4mil where to find...

and if assuming DP of 30-50%, profit easily above 100% return on capital outlay. Huat ah! [:p]

 

'SG property, always ideal to stay vested' [;)]

Can’t ‘like’ ..... but agree fully with your statement above!

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F10_Blackhawk

F10_Blackhawk

4th Gear

Because he bought it at an exceptional low price in Feb 2016. The average psf for Urban resort 4 bedder at the end of 2015 is $2301 but he bought the unit at $1800++psf.

 

The reason being that for some reason, another unit was sold in Feb 2016 for $1779psf. So this particular unit probably has to follow more of less than same $psf in order to sell.

 

So the buyer in my opinion, is either extremely savvy or has an agent who does the value analysis and know his numbers well.

Can’t ‘like’ your post...actually good agent is not enough....the buyer must also be convicted himself. In my earlier years I have mentor / boss who literally forced me to buy properties. Back then where to find agents and all this big data, value analysis. I was scared like a mouse but my mentor scolded me. I wasn’t convicted but went ahead nevertheless coz I have no choice haha. My boss deduct the installment from my salary. But I’m thankful that he did it....but now, try doing that lol kana complain till PM Lee

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Tiger1

Tiger1

6th Gear

Canât âlikeâ your post...actually good agent is not enough....the buyer must also be convicted himself. In my earlier years I have mentor / boss who literally forced me to buy properties. Back then where to find agents and all this big data, value analysis. I was scared like a mouse but my mentor scolded me. I wasnât convicted but went ahead nevertheless coz I have no choice haha. My boss deduct the installment from my salary. But Iâm thankful that he did it....but now, try doing that lol kana complain till PM Lee

u have a good boss bro. Hope I had one like yours.
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Mercs

Mercs

Hypersonic

District 5 and 19 tops the numbers.

 

But these numbers also comes from enbloc sales concluded.

 

For example, district 5.

 

Park West 432 units

Normanton Park 488

Brookvale Park 160

Vista Park 209

 

Not aware of others in district 5 but here it can be observed that the numbers of units sucked into vacuum from these 4 developments alone constitutes 1289 large units.

 

Whether they buy replacement or rent, it will play a supportive role to the market.

 

Moreover, the projected maximum number of units may not be met as Developers may not develop to maximum number of units.

 

If they do, then the units may be too small for replacement and may not be large enough to serve the actual demand from the enbloccers.

For replacement homes, enbloc millionaires may opt for resale units for their relatively larger size and immediate occupation, while getting another 1 or 2 new launch investment units as those will take some time to be ready before any rental concern and also on progressive payment, with flexibility to move in to the new unit when ready in a few years.

 

With the recent new rule to min unit size, agree max units may not be met, there should be more bigger units forward.

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Mercs

Mercs

Hypersonic

what happen after 19 ....... supply drop till lau sai . :D They trying to boost land price ?

supply to last for next few years so no worries, many choices to go around with the many new launches [:p]
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