More COE Next Year (2014) .....

[longdriver]

ppl scrap car... will most likely want to buy new cars.

supply up demand also up.

 

unless another financial crisis again?

[Yuan]

 

 

Only maybe coming elections they manipulate so COE drop till after elections then it shoot up again.

 

Nothing new here. If u hv been around long enough like me, u wil also know how things work in SG.

 

That is quite a possibility.

[Caravan]

 

 

COE supply set to rise from next month after 7-year slide, but 25% increase unlikely to ease pressure on premiums significantly

....

Again, motor traders said prices will not fall as fast - or much - because there is a time lag between the time a car owner starts shopping for a car and the time he actually scraps his car.

This time lag creates a mismatch between demand and supply. It was precisely why the Land Transport Authority (LTA) moved to a "deregistration forecast" method in 2000 to determine COE supply.

But that method had its pitfalls too, as forecasts were seldom accurate. That was why it has reverted to formulating quotas based on past deregistrations.

The motor trade and academics have been advocating a quota formula delinked from deregistrations for a more even supply pattern in the long term.

The LTA said it is still studying that proposal, among others.

Meanwhile, Mr Tay said "only the rich are buying cars today", echoing the observation of other motor traders.

Source: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/singapore/transport/story/coe-supply-set-rise-next-month-after-7-year-slide-20140408

 

 

Finally someone pointed out the problem with the present COE quota formula.

[Dafansu]

I think the main issue is Singapore population suddenly increased by a lot. Not forgetting the targeted 6.9 million. Unlikely the COE will drop much. Maybe at range of at least 40-50k

[Watwheels]

Not just car buyers are waiting to pounce on the opportunity. Car dealers are now suppressing their premiums to attract sales. Once ppl start heading to the car showrooms you will see their premiums go up. Car prices will still stay high.

[Roh96]

I'm not greedy to ask for <$10K COE, if it comes down to <$40K I happy liao.

[Penknife]

COE premiums is one thing. at the end of 10 years, you only get back 50% of what it was paid at the start of it's life.

 

therefore, when we bid, we should take into consideration that the price paid today will only be worth 50% 10 years later.

 

Thus, we should only bid at a price which is equal to 50% of the face value today.

 

Also, if we add in time value of money, we should bid less than 50% of what we believe that the COE price will be 10 years down the road

 

ie, if we think COE price at Apr 2024 is at $70,000, we should not bid anything more than $35,000. (that's because at Apr 2024, ur COE only worth $35k).

 

So, it doesn't make sense to pay for something which you'll only get back 50% in value 10 years later.

 

Also, for Bike COE, there is no PARF value. So whatever amount of COE paid today means the value is $0 at the end of 10 years.

 

Therefore, the future value of Bike COE at year 10 is $0. Which means to say, the present value today is $0. Anything paid higher than $0 is called a premium which serves no purposes in this context.

[Roh96]

COE premiums is one thing. at the end of 10 years, you only get back 50% of what it was paid at the start of it's life.

 

therefore, when we bid, we should take into consideration that the price paid today will only be worth 50% 10 years later.

 

Thus, we should only bid at a price which is equal to 50% of the face value today.

 

Also, if we add in time value of money, we should bid less than 50% of what we believe that the COE price will be 10 years down the road

 

ie, if we think COE price at Apr 2024 is at $70,000, we should not bid anything more than $35,000. (that's because at Apr 2024, ur COE only worth $35k).

 

So, it doesn't make sense to pay for something which you'll only get back 50% in value 10 years later.

 

Also, for Bike COE, there is no PARF value. So whatever amount of COE paid today means the value is $0 at the end of 10 years.

 

Therefore, the future value of Bike COE at year 10 is $0. Which means to say, the present value today is $0. Anything paid higher than $0 is called a premium which serves no purposes in this context.

 

Hur...I catch no ball. COE is fully depreciated after 10 yrs, you get back nothing.

[Fastnfaster]

if buyers are really so united, everyone bid $1 COE.. see how LTA cry blood!!

 

lagi better right.. new car with $1 COE.. 2nd hand dealers at the same time suffer also..

 

yes, my alarm clock haven't ring yet..

If buyers so united to bid at $1, then there is no successful bid at all...

 

If one can afford $2, why should one be united and he will get his coe at $2 when the rest bid at $1.

 

That's how the system works. ..coe goes to the one with deeper pocket. It's all depends on consumer buying power & will.

[Penknife]

 

Hur...I catch no ball. COE is fully depreciated after 10 yrs, you get back nothing.

sorry, i got it wrong, please ignore.

[Knoobie]

 

 

This cannot happen cos the gharmen wil just get taxi companies n all their connected pple to come n bid high to push up the COE price again.

 

The COE is not a fair n open bidding system. How can it b when the gharmen wil from time to time come in n manipulate the supply n the price moves up or down.

 

They can control the price just by "tweaking" the system whenever ty please.

:( true... damn.. the flip taxi!!!

[Penknife]

If buyers so united to bid at $1, then there is no successful bid at all...

 

If one can afford $2, why should one be united and he will get his coe at $2 when the rest bid at $1.

 

That's how the system works. ..coe goes to the one with deeper pocket. It's all depends on consumer buying power & will.

if everyone bid $1, that means COE policy is not working, which means gahment gets no money.

 

but it require the unity of people, which we all know sinkie always pwn sinkie

 

Therefore, the gahment can declare that their COE policy is a failed policy and they may move away from the bidding system.

[Knoobie]

If buyers so united to bid at $1, then there is no successful bid at all...

 

If one can afford $2, why should one be united and he will get his coe at $2 when the rest bid at $1.

 

That's how the system works. ..coe goes to the one with deeper pocket. It's all depends on consumer buying power & will.

like that one ar? because I thought they will award the COE to the highest bid ma.. since highest bid are all $1, so everyone get COE!

 

of coz, that is just an assumption of a united people..

[Fastnfaster]

I doubt the COE price to drop for the next few years cos this is impossible. They never wanted to drop the COE prices even though the supply is increasing. The only thing will drop is COE supply, hence they can maintain the COE price as high as current.

 

 

If coe doesn't drop, it just means there are more demand than supply, and buyers still have the buying power to afford such high coe...that's it. ..

[Kweechang]

like that one ar? because I thought they will award the COE to the highest bid ma.. since highest bid are all $1, so everyone get COE!

 

of coz, that is just an assumption of a united people..

 

case 1:

When there are 100 COE, 102 person all bid $1.

 

Result: No successful bidder. All the 100 COE will be carried to the next round of bidding.

 

case 2:

When there are 100 COE, 102 person all bid $1, 1 person bid $2

 

Result: 1 successful bidder. All the 99 COE will be carried to the next round of bidding.

[Knoobie]

 

case 1:

When there are 100 COE, 102 person all bid $1.

 

Result: No successful bidder. All the 100 COE will be carried to the next round of bidding.

 

case 2:

When there are 100 COE, 102 person all bid $1, 1 person bid $2

 

Result: 1 successful bidder. All the 99 COE will be carried to the next round of bidding.

I see i see..

 

didn't know is like that coz never have a chance to see it..

[Fastnfaster]

 

like that one ar? because I thought they will award the COE to the highest bid ma.. since highest bid are all $1, so everyone get COE!

 

of coz, that is just an assumption of a united people..[/quote

 

You are right if the number of bidder is less than the number of coe available, then everyone get it at $1.

 

 

But there are less than 2000 coe available per bidding, demand far exceeded supply today. Who on earth will kwai kwai bid at $1 if he is serious about securing a coe ?

[Ahseng]

Prices won't fall la, only recession then ppl will balls shrink, else just up up and away.

 

U believe pappies meh...if they say MORE ERP gantries i believe la..but more COE......or COE price down...lol