More COE Next Year (2014) .....

[Matrix0405]

believing Lui is like believing khaw when he said many years ago to not rush into buying flats/ condos as supply is ramping up and price will moderate.

 

But we all know what happened right?

 

 

Totally agree. Even botak say wait a bit, the price will come down. That time, only ah gong say cheap, kar kar buy. Those who listen to the former likely still waiting. Those listen to ah gong huat liao.

[Darthrevan]

COE supply set to rise from next month after 7-year slide, but 25% increase unlikely to ease pressure on premiums significantly

THE supply of certificates of entitlement (COEs) for cars is set to rise from next month after shrinking for the last seven years.

The increase, however, is unlikely to quell overheated premiums fuelled by pent-up demand - at least not significantly.

According to estimates based on the number of cars scrapped in the first two months of the year, the number of COEs available for cars in the May-July period should be around 2,240 a month - or around 25 per cent more than the current quota.

COE supply, formulated quarterly, is based largely on the number of vehicles deregistered in the preceding three months.

After a seven-year slide, the supply of car COEs is now about one-fifth of its peak in the mid-2000s. The increase from next month will be the first upturn since supply started shrinking in 2007.

But motor industry players warn that the imminent supply increase will not have a significant impact on prices.

Mr Ricky Tay, the immediate past president of the Singapore Vehicle Traders Association, said: "It will ease pressure and cool down the market slightly, but the supply is still not big enough."

The veteran motor trader said it will take up to the later part of this year for premiums to ease further.

Mr Ron Lim, general manager of Nissan agent Tan Chong Motor, concurs. He said the premium for Category A (for cars up to 1,600cc and 130bhp) - now hovering above $78,000 - could fall to "the low $70,000s", but not further.

"This is because replacement demand is high," he said, noting that motorists have been holding on to their cars right up to the end of their statutory lifespan of 10 years.

An estimated 30,000 cars will be scrapped this year, up from 18,000 last year.

And between next year and 2017, more than 100,000 cars will be scrapped each year, according to estimates based on the age profile of vehicles here.

This, in turn, means COE supply will surge between next year and 2017. Together with the car loan curbs and higher taxation for bigger cars, premiums should ease further.

Again, motor traders said prices will not fall as fast - or much - because there is a time lag between the time a car owner starts shopping for a car and the time he actually scraps his car.

This time lag creates a mismatch between demand and supply. It was precisely why the Land Transport Authority (LTA) moved to a "deregistration forecast" method in 2000 to determine COE supply.

But that method had its pitfalls too, as forecasts were seldom accurate. That was why it has reverted to formulating quotas based on past deregistrations.

The motor trade and academics have been advocating a quota formula delinked from deregistrations for a more even supply pattern in the long term.

The LTA said it is still studying that proposal, among others.

Meanwhile, Mr Tay said "only the rich are buying cars today", echoing the observation of other motor traders.

Source: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/singapore/transport/story/coe-supply-set-rise-next-month-after-7-year-slide-20140408

[Jerrcik]

The thing is tht dealers must work together.

 

Blaming the PAP is half the source. If all delears bid at 1 dollar.....woo hoo

[Quantum]

Got cheap things in Singapore - our PRship and Citizenship kena lelong cheap cheap to China and India immigrants, our NS boys also cheap....

cannot blame govt lah,

you Singaporean don't wnat to bear baby, no choice have to cheap cheap giving citizenship to China and India immigrants

[Penknife]

it's still back to basics.

 

car is a poison, a status symbol. so unless those who scrapped gives up driving, i don't see the price falls.

 

COE resupply will merely go back to those who scrapped it, albeit at a higher price now.

 

so, alternatives has to be in place. Motorcycling is a good alternative as it provides a form of private transport, and yet it eases congestions and reduce pollution at the same time. it's cheaper to maintain and easier to park.

 

all we need is a shift of mindset.

[Picanto]

new bikes also not cheap. since there is a strong demand for 2nd hand bikes as well, i feel that sellers will take the opportunity to jack up prices

it's still back to basics.

 

car is a poison, a status symbol. so unless those who scrapped gives up driving, i don't see the price falls.

 

COE resupply will merely go back to those who scrapped it, albeit at a higher price now.

 

so, alternatives has to be in place. Motorcycling is a good alternative as it provides a form of private transport, and yet it eases congestions and reduce pollution at the same time. it's cheaper to maintain and easier to park.

 

all we need is a shift of mindset.

 

[Wt_know]

in the good old days, lta release at least 100k coe a year

 

now < 30k coe a year, how can coe be low ... you say la!

Edited April 8, 2014 by Wt_know

[Achee]

The thing is tht dealers must work together.

 

Blaming the PAP is half the source. If all delears bid at 1 dollar.....woo hoo

That's correct. On the contrary if everyone of us thinks that COE will go up, it will certainly go up!

[Ktglfc]

I doubt the COE price to drop for the next few years cos this is impossible. They never wanted to drop the COE prices even though the supply is increasing. The only thing will drop is COE supply, hence they can maintain the COE price as high as current.

 

 

I totally agreed with you.

 

Prices of COE is huge coffer for our garmen.

 

I do not believe that COE will drop to 2006/2007 level, i.e. around $10k. We will be lucky if coe drops to $50k, if it ever happen.

Don't harbour too much hope.

[Aaronlkl]

it's still back to basics.

 

car is a poison, a status symbol. so unless those who scrapped gives up driving, i don't see the price falls.

 

COE resupply will merely go back to those who scrapped it, albeit at a higher price now.

 

so, alternatives has to be in place. Motorcycling is a good alternative as it provides a form of private transport, and yet it eases congestions and reduce pollution at the same time. it's cheaper to maintain and easier to park.

 

all we need is a shift of mindset.

The problem now is motorcycle they also wanna disturb! Since when there's a motorcycle jam? But they reduced motorcycle COE quote for no apparent reason!

[Pisces69]

believing Lui is like believing khaw when he said many years ago to not rush into buying flats/ condos as supply is ramping up and price will moderate.

 

But we all know what happened right?

 

 

I stopped believeing anything the P8P tells us long long ago.

 

Ty only say what ty want us to believe........not what is going to happen. Then when we so stupid to listen to them n put our hard earned money down n when ty hv got as much as ty think ty wil get, ty shut the door n we r trapped like rats in a cage.

 

Another of my worry is our CPF. My fear is one fine day ty r gone n the new gharmen come n check throughly n we r told that there is nothing left in the CPF. All the money is gone .

[Pisces69]

if buyers are really so united, everyone bid $1 COE.. see how LTA cry blood!!

 

lagi better right.. new car with $1 COE.. 2nd hand dealers at the same time suffer also..

 

yes, my alarm clock haven't ring yet..

 

 

This cannot happen cos the gharmen wil just get taxi companies n all their connected pple to come n bid high to push up the COE price again.

 

The COE is not a fair n open bidding system. How can it b when the gharmen wil from time to time come in n manipulate the supply n the price moves up or down.

 

They can control the price just by "tweaking" the system whenever ty please.

[Pisces69]

I doubt the COE price to drop for the next few years cos this is impossible. They never wanted to drop the COE prices even though the supply is increasing. The only thing will drop is COE supply, hence they can maintain the COE price as high as current.

 

 

 

Only maybe coming elections they manipulate so COE drop till after elections then it shoot up again.

 

Nothing new here. If u hv been around long enough like me, u wil also know how things work in SG.

[Pisces69]

In fact i have been to major aussie cities and some cities in europe like paris or amsterdam, i notice one thing in their cbd which our cbd dun have which is a wide lane and of course some of these cities are cyclist friendly and have their own lane for cyclist. Unlike in sg

 

 

U wan dedicated lane for bicycles. Unlimited free parking?

 

Then ty wil just end up charge cyclists so much to enter CBD till all cry n run away.

 

U forgot we r in Spore. Nothing is for free. Dun expect anything without u have to pay tru yr nose sooner or later.

 

When gharmen say ty wan to "give" us something for free, I wil shiver n scared till cannot sheet even. Dunno how much it wil cost us later on.

[Pisces69]

Support! Hahahaha

 

Gharmen alrdy making $$$ from FTs. Ty come here n end up ty push Sporean salary down till cheap cheap. Cost of doing biz here drop .

 

Many companies alrdy complain that SG salary too high so ty wan to set-up in cheaper places like Msia, Thai, Philippines, Indo.

 

So gharmen bring in FT also got a reason cos FT work for low salary also ty wan. Then we Sporeans end up either work gor less pay or got no job.

COE is not based on the amount of space you occupy. Otherwise how come the categories is based on engine cc (for cars) and there is only single category for commercial vehicles (which is those small van as well as larger trucks)?

 

 

Yes the system is flawed in many ways. But as long as gharmen makes big bucks, what do ty care.

[13177]

Correct, garment here only care about in making big bucks, achieving good GDP and economy.

[Pisces69]

I second this opinion. They should further tighten the loan requirements imo to reduce demand. it sounds bad but this is to prevent people from over committing and driving the prices sky high.

 

if history repeats itself, the coe will be between 15-25k +/-.

 

Around 2008-9 it dropped to abt $7K only right?

 

I wish it happens around 2016 cos that's when I need to replace my car. Hahaha.

[Baal]

Ya, i think if it can drop to 50k, its damn lucky already. Tan Chong mentioned 70k + & no lower than that from the current 78k.

 

So will be like 2k drop/mth? So we will need at least 14 mths to acheive this. From now till August 2015 would be 16mths...hmm....