More COE Next Year (2014) .....

[Mobycane]

The main point I feel is still the 'SUPPLY' part. Sure, he said it will increase next year, but by how much exactly?

 

It won't be back to the good old days of abundant supplies for sure, quite a moot result I guess. Things should look more realistic AFTER the 2016 election.

[Oneshot1kill]

More COE next year is based on the assumption that increasing number of cars will be scrapped upon reaching 10 years. But this assumption is flawed because it assumes that these car owners will not replace their old cars with new ones or renew COEs.

 

If these old car owners choose to either replace their old car by buying a new one or renew their COE by 5 or 10 years, the number of COEs will not increase as fast as what people are wishing now.

[Sktan10]

actually the CM is good lah.

 

apart from the majority of mcf-ers. there are really of alot of ppl who dont think nor do financial planning.

 

i have a few technicians under me earning 2k a month owning cars.

 

when i ask them why they buy car when their basic is so low, their reasoning is that loan 10 yrs every month only a few hundred. use OT to cover.

this yr when company clamp down on OT they all crying liaoz.

 

haiz....

 

 

 

 

 

 

May be they kanna 4d or toto never tell u? :D

 

 

[Sktan10]

why u all so happy what the Mr lui says har?

 

more de-register means more buyers means more demand.

 

they will keep the number of coe down in the name of keeping the numbers stable.

 

so with demand up and supply same or down, u think coe price will go down big time?

 

if im lui, i will tell u wait long long!

 

 

 

Exactly.

Some of my friend whose car next year turn 10 already start monitoring coe movement.

My ex-neighbour husband n wife one car each brought during cheap coe period recently just combine n change to one car.

At least one coe goes into the market.

[Scoots]

i am surprised that they didnt consider COE for the cyclist...

 

How about a COE for a COE?

[Gendut]

Listen to the Minister?

 

I'd rather listen to the 2nd hand salesman. I have no reservations on his motivations and loyalties.

[Camrysfa]

even with CM1, looks possible that 120/60/60 pattern can sustain for many years:

 

meaning average new car Selling Price: $120K

 

thus COE level: $60K ( appx ) ---- assuming import cost + govt charges * AD profit =$60K

thus DP: $60K --- assuming loophole closed.

 

Basis: annual supply of COE in 2013 about 40,000. ( the actual figure not easy to find out )

 

Number of people in the market to change cars or new entrants: 50,000

Edited March 27, 2013 by Camrysfa

[Maxus-MIFA9]

even with CM1, looks possible that 120/60/60 pattern can sustain for many years:

 

meaning average new car Selling Price: $120K

 

thus COE level: $60K ( appx ) ---- assuming import cost + govt charges * AD profit =$60K

thus DP: $60K --- assuming loophole closed.

 

Basis: annual supply of COE in 2013 about 40,000. ( the actual figure not easy to find out )

 

Number of people in the market to change cars or new entrants: 50,000

 

Base on your calculations, the price of cars will never comes down ....

[Tayspiderx]

Ha if doing a ratio of New Entrant versus Population growth

 

5.2 mil current population vs 6.9 mil in 2030

 

1 mil current car owner vs projected 1.33 mil in 2030

 

...17 years in between ... 19411 NEW ENTRANT into car market annually

[HP_Lee]

There is always a debate of whether up or down. But I see, it sustain at high level. With so many rich ppl , new well-off citizens and rich foreigners for the next 10 - 20 years, you think it will drop? I doubt so. Unless something similar to the 2008 crises hit. The COE historical trend have change, since we find more rich ppl here. Some of our MCFers, can even pay full in cash to buy a conti car.

[Zanter]

Won't change a thing when more COE is available. Why? Cos with more de-registration, more owners will buy new cars to replace those that's de-registered.

 

At least for now, current owners are holding onto their ride and not buying.

 

Many people deregistering may not be able to afford the 50% DP.

[Zanter]

There is always a debate of whether up or down. But I see, it sustain at high level. With so many rich ppl , new well-off citizens and rich foreigners for the next 10 - 20 years, you think it will drop? I doubt so. Unless something similar to the 2008 crises hit. The COE historical trend have change, since we find more rich ppl here. Some of our MCFers, can even pay full in cash to buy a conti car.

 

You must be the same guy who said th latest measures will not drop COE prices

[13177]

Many people deregistering may not be able to afford the 50% DP.

Downpayment 50%? Thought 40% depends the car OMV?!

[HP_Lee]

even with CM1, looks possible that 120/60/60 pattern can sustain for many years:

 

meaning average new car Selling Price: $120K

 

thus COE level: $60K ( appx ) ---- assuming import cost + govt charges * AD profit =$60K

thus DP: $60K --- assuming loophole closed.

 

Basis: annual supply of COE in 2013 about 40,000. ( the actual figure not easy to find out )

 

Number of people in the market to change cars or new entrants: 50,000

 

Me too, agree your numbers. Besides this, we have not factor in the 6.9mil targeted population. I am seeing more imported rich for the last few years. Even of the garmen allow individual to bid for COE, I belivev the rich would not mind to bid at high prices. Secondly, our road infrastructure is already maxed. The current traffic condition is so bad. Caught in traffic for an hour to reach office, though it should be 15 - 20mins drive. Now ended up going office later of the morning to avoid the jam.

[Alfc]

More COE next year is based on the assumption that increasing number of cars will be scrapped upon reaching 10 years. But this assumption is flawed because it assumes that these car owners will not replace their old cars with new ones or renew COEs.

 

If these old car owners choose to either replace their old car by buying a new one or renew their COE by 5 or 10 years, the number of COEs will not increase as fast as what people are wishing now.

 

The underlying reality may be that not all old car owners (especially those marginal ones doing so on high loans) will be able to afford to own car anymore. The next cycle is a window for re-distribution of car ownership: marginal ones - out, new and those that have stronger financial position (not the same as rich) - in.

[HP_Lee]

You must be the same guy who said th latest measures will not drop COE prices

 

Yup. It will sustain at that level for long. You need only 2 factors to sustain the prices. First, we see more rich here. Second we see 6.9mil. You think liao.

[HP_Lee]

I have supported Indian Chief's budget. He is doing right from Singaporeans.

[Duckduck]

Yup. It will sustain at that level for long. You need only 2 factors to sustain the prices. First, we see more rich here. Second we see 6.9mil. You think liao.

 

u forget that alot of the high asset prices here r due to high gearing, so it seems everyone is rich. Minus off the debt portion is u will find that alot are not that rich.

 

Thats y when measures first came out the cat b crashed, dealers thot all credit lines frozen, but then they realized only banks but not credit coys. If garmen strictly enforce all bank n non-bank loans, i confirm itll sure crash. Even today i believe can still get 70-100% financing, so of cse coe wont crash. I checked last wk w a few car coys all still have high loans n 10yrs loan tenures.

 

I emailed M@S again & asked them abt d loopholes, so now awaiting their reply.