Ready for high COE?

[F355]

mechanics is if they cut quota by 50% then the premium is going up by 50%. Renewed Coe is not in the quota. So less pple de-register their cars then less new coe will be in the system. There is a huge chunk of cheap coe registered in 2005 to 2007. If those pple extend coe then less new coe means high premium. Not rockrt science.

 

I read and read and read but still don't get it. Sounds like rocket science to me.

 

1) Who cut quota by 50% . LTA ? PAP ? There were no mention of quota being cut ; just a reduction in GROWTH RATE from 0.5% to 0.25%. A positive value of growth rate mean the number of new COEs available will still be more than the number of cars scrapped.

 

2)Renewed COE not in quota :- Yes, agree.

 

3)Huge chunks of cheap COE in 2005 to 2007 and if these people renew: - These people , when they renew , will not be paying the cheap COE that they obtained in 05 to 07 . The pay the current COE price , known as PQP . If they had paid 5k COE for a brand new b&b car 10 years ago , are they going to pay 60k to drive their 10 yr old cars for another 10 yrs ?

[Coltplussport]

Now that car population has hit the 1 million mark its even easier to hit the billion dollar figures.

Let say cars standard 10'years. So every year register 100000 cars, Coe average $40k nia nia, every year for revenue $4,000,000,000. 4 bil, did I count wrongly

[Atonchia]

Let say cars standard 10'years. So every year register 100000 cars, Coe average $40k nia nia, every year for revenue $4,000,000,000. 4 bil, did I count wrongly

 

No, you counted it right.

 

Every 2 years the revenue collected can build a very long underground MRT line and spare change to build a few viaducts.

 

[Wt_know]

if you look at the bidding result

per bidding session is about $100M++ collection

$100M x 2 bidding x 12 months = 2.4B++ only ... not yet $4B la ... lol

 

every 2 weeks made $100M ... just by thinking of it ... while sleeping also can laugh

 

Let say cars standard 10'years. So every year register 100000 cars, Coe average $40k nia nia, every year for revenue $4,000,000,000. 4 bil, did I count wrongly

 

Edited October 16, 2014 by Wt_know

[Jamesc]

The reason second cars have higher depreciation than new cars

 

are because fewer people have enough cash to pay for the deposit

 

for a new car to enjoy the lower depreciation.

 

[Aukang]

Let say cars standard 10'years. So every year register 100000 cars,

Sorry... I'm not good at maths and stats.... at steady state, even with zero growth, would it be accurate to say that we should see 100000/24 =~ 4000 COEs available for each bidding exercise fortnightly?

[Thaiyotakamli]

 

 

To truly celebrate SG50, I propose COE be SGD50.

 

 

U forgot the "k" behind the fifty

[Jimmylim]

many years back when COE was high, many people also said the high price is there to stay, gave many reasoning that sound logical then. so what happened? the price went down so much and suddenly another different reasoning appeared.

 

buy when the price is right and comfortable for you. don't over commit and go beyond your means.

[Luckydrawcar]

Sorry... I'm not good at maths and stats.... at steady state, even with zero growth, would it be accurate to say that we should see 100000/24 =~ 4000 COEs available for each bidding exercise fortnightly?

Newbie here 😀 but the 4000 coes will include all the coe categories tiok boh? And don't forget does it include buses and taxis?

[Ktglfc]

 

 

To truly celebrate SG50, I propose COE be SGD50.

 

 

 

Even 500 or even 5000, I will be really happy like mad liao

[Powxus]

many years back when COE was high, many people also said the high price is there to stay, gave many reasoning that sound logical then. so what happened? the price went down so much and suddenly another different reasoning appeared.

 

buy when the price is right and comfortable for you. don't over commit and go beyond your means.

 

Many years back is because of change in gov policy to allow more cars and then charge by usage. Think they realize later that this is a mistake since people will want to use the car once they have brought it.

[Hosaybo]

The reason second cars have higher depreciation than new cars

 

are because fewer people have enough cash to pay for the deposit

 

for a new car to enjoy the lower depreciation.

 

agree on this point. Also alot are playing the waiting game and hence, buy old cars (with 1-3 years left) to tahan till more coe supply coes to the market. Demand for old car is up and with demand, prices go up since supply is limited.

[SuPerBoRed]

The reason second cars have higher depreciation than new cars

 

are because fewer people have enough cash to pay for the deposit

 

for a new car to enjoy the lower depreciation.

 

 

actually.. to enjoy the lower depreciation.. one needs to carry the car for full 10yrs... else when u sell to 2nd hand car dealers... ur depreciation also shoot up for them to maintain their margin...

[SGCMsmallcar]

You guys can talk till the cow comes home. Gov will do their best to filp prata n give cock answer to preserve this cash cow. They will not stop this goose from lying golden eggs.

[Powxus]

You guys can talk till the cow comes home. Gov will do their best to filp prata n give cock answer to preserve this cash cow. They will not stop this goose from lying golden eggs.

 

Agree, as long as they keep COE high, they can potentially use it to pay off the cost of many public transportation projects.

[SGCMsmallcar]

 

Agree, as long as they keep COE high, they can potentially use it to pay off the cost of many public transportation projects.

 

Sorry bro, need to correct a small typo you have. cost of "CHEAP CHINA KNOCKOFF' public transportation projects which breaks down now and then, Waste time. Billions dollars transportation breaks down more often than my 50k car. PUi !

[yo2020]

You guys can talk till the cow comes home. Gov will do their best to filp prata n give cock answer to preserve this cash cow. They will not stop this goose from lying golden eggs.

the end result could b even more or roughly the same if COE Premium is lower n the number of new COE for reg is high.

 

eg. current quota for Cat A 575 per bidding exercise, last round COE Premium was ~$64k. total Cat A revenue = $36.8M.

if Cat A quota is 1500 n if the COE Premium dropped to $30k (!!), total Cat A revenue = $45M.

even if the COE Premium dropped to $25k (!!!), total Cat A revenue = $37.5M.

[Damienic]

With the potential higher deregisteration figures next yr but coupled with the reduction of vehicle growth rate to 0.25%, what you guys think would be the estimated % increase in coe quota for say the next two quarters after this, ie Feb-Apr 15, May-July 15?