Monthly Sharing on Dereg Data & Projected COE Quota

[titarium]

 

if u look at past yrs records, there were always many cars dereg early (ie. <9 yrs old).

n there r more cars due in the 2nd half of this yr than the 1st half.

thus, u noticed the dereg in Apr was more than the avg that u computed.

 

in short, many more dereg to come... tsunami...

 

 

This is the first time I have to disagree with you leh

 

May to Oct : 35 - 42k number of COE release

 

Cars to be scrap within this period :

SFV , W , X, Y , Z

 

that's about 50k so there will be a minimum gap of 8 k in the market

 

COE will go down within this period if the 8k group decide not to renew and start to take public transport , else this gap will be accumulated till Oct.

 

so it will be Tsunami of COE but a bigger TSUNAMI on deregistration.

[yo2020]

 

this is updated basing on LTA's jz released Apr's data.

Cat A & B r slightly less than projected but it's still looking good to hit target.

Cat E has gone up due to lesser new taxi reg.

next update shall b on 12 Jun.

 

 

this is updated basing on LTA's May's data.

it looks like 2nd half of this yr shall hv much more dereg than 1st half.

[yo2020]

 

there isn't a direct 1. but it can b derived indirectly n no breakdown in Cat A or B.

 

below r my est (except Mar) on the number of car renewal:

Jan: 450

Feb: 300

Mar: 525

Apr: 560

 

COE renewal for cars for May is abt 560 too.

 

[Mustank]

come in to support Bro YO2020!!!

[Limwsv]

 

COE renewal for cars for May is abt 560 too.

 

 

I love Adam Smith's invisible hands. Market self-adjusting. Looks like a larger number of people cannot stomach the COE + additional loans require for a new car and is only willing to fork out for 2nd hand cars or renew their existing rides.

 

Operation Cold Storage not require at this rate.

[will80]

Guess Operation Cold Storage will start when the Tsunami of COE is bigger than the Tsunami on deregistration or when CAT A COE drop below $60K.

[Hosaybo]

Tsunami of demand has come with the large no of dereg!

 

Tsunami demand is eating up the tsunami supply.

 

Rate of renewal is good. Make sense for gov to maintain high coe so that more renew 5 years. Income gao gao yet no need to chu pattern to implement OCS.

 

Winner...... Gov.

[Ivan_06]

Tsunami of demand has come with the large no of dereg!

 

Tsunami demand is eating up the tsunami supply.

 

Rate of renewal is good. Make sense for gov to maintain high coe so that more renew 5 years. Income gao gao yet no need to chu pattern to implement OCS.

 

Winner...... Gov.

OCS stands for claw back scheme?

[Hosaybo]

OCS stands for claw back scheme?

Yes. With enough renewal, esp 5 years, this is not necessary as people will drive another 5 years before scrap in 2010. Just nice when supply is drying up.

[yo2020]

 

 

this is updated basing on LTA's May's data.

it looks like 2nd half of this yr shall hv much more dereg than 1st half.

 

 

 

LTA has jz released the data, earlier than expected.

 

well, Cat B & E hits target.

Cat A didn't manage to break 1700, but it's closed enough!

 

Cat A up 18%

Cat B up 14%

Open Cat up 34%

Edited July 13, 2015 by yo2020

[yo2020]

below r my est (based on LTA's data) on the number of COE renewal (Cat A&B combined):

Jan: 450
Feb: 300
Mar: 525 (confirmed by LTA)
Apr: 560
May: 560
Jun: 750

[Andyngps]

 

 

 

LTA has jz released the data, earlier than expected.

 

well, Cat B & E hits target.

Cat A didn't manage to break 1700, but it's closed enough!

 

Cat A up 18%

Cat B up 14%

Open Cat up 34%

Gradual ocs bit by bit??

[Tohto]

Gradual ocs bit by bit??

 

I think is more renewal of COE.

[Andyngps]

 

I think is more renewal of COE.

Was thinking of that too but wonder if bro yoyo can help evaluate..

[Akula]

An 18% increase of Cat A, B and E.

Perhaps COE prices can come down by a corresponding 10-15%.....

[Matrix0405]

Disappointing growth for A; held back by re-new COE. If 2K per bid is Tsunami, no tsunami this year.

[Mustank]

Disappointing growth for A; held back by re-new COE. If 2K per bid is Tsunami, no tsunami this year.

 

don't disappointed lah

at least your one +18%

my one -50%

[Playtime]

will election date effect COE?

 

I think COE will jump after election. LTA will probably go for zero growth or even negative to even out the supply. No more bumper.

 

People will now rush to buy before election... end up pushing it north too.