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Private Property prices......still up or down? Part II

RadX

By RadX,
in Property Buzz

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Roh96

Roh96

6th Gear

So big cities such as NY Manhattan and HK are seeing decline. Will this happen to Sg one day?

I say absolutely possible! However, I see ppl choose to live in denial and imagination. Hahaha 

 

OCBC 2.68%, chiong ah....huat ah!

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Sdf4786k

Sdf4786k

Twincharged

While its good to be prudent with finances save and invest, this to me is rather overdone.

 

Must also live a little, spend and enjoy, strike a balance.

 

All i gotta say to this is ... 2 FH landed ... their next generation huat ah! [:p]

 

u mean buy 2 FH Landed ?

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Showster

Showster

Twincharged
(edited)

Happened before from 2013-2017 while HK surged another 40%? NY increased another 30% thereabout as well.

 

During the same period, SG housing dropped 10%, solely based on the idea that such a growth would have set us up for a huge drop today.

 

So technically, we are still underpriced by some 30% relative to global prices, assuming a growth of 10% in 2018.

 

I have been reading the denial for the last 4 years. I have warned that those who were waiting were only waiting for higher prices at higher rates and much improved inflationary pressures. Certainly, it did not pay to wait.

 

So big cities such as NY Manhattan and HK are seeing decline. Will this happen to Sg one day?

I say absolutely possible! However, I see ppl choose to live in denial and imagination. Hahaha 

 

OCBC 2.68%, chiong ah....huat ah!

 

Edited by Showster
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Showster

Showster

Twincharged

https://www.statista.com/statistics/379423/inflation-rate-in-singapore/

 

Its not a coincidence that dipping inflation (negative slope periods) correlates well with tendency for prices to be falling and rising inflation (positive slope periods) correlates with rising prices.

 

Beyond 2020 or 2021 it could be quite variable but we do see higher inflation coming. Eggs, water, food supply wise, transport, housing (rent) etc.

 

Be prepared BEFORE the storm, not during the storm.

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Roh96

Roh96

6th Gear

What warnings or advices will you give now?

 

Happened before from 2013-2017 while HK surged another 40%? NY increased another 30% thereabout as well.

 

During the same period, SG housing dropped 10%, solely based on the idea that such a growth would have set us up for a huge drop today.

 

So technically, we are still underpriced by some 30% relative to global prices, assuming a growth of 10% in 2018.

 

I have been reading the denial for the last 4 years. I have warned that those who were waiting were only waiting for higher prices at higher rates and much improved inflationary pressures. Certainly, it did not pay to wait.

 

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Kusje

Kusje

Supersonic

If 3% increase, a 1 mil property today supported by 10,000 monthly income would cost 1.34 mil 10 years later supported by 13,400 monthly income 10 years later, and 2.4 mil 30 years later supported by $24,000 monthly income 30 years later.

 

What’s the issue?

 

The only issue is that those with the income today choose to wait till tomorrow to buy in tomorrow’s conditions, or those with the income yesterday try to get yesterday’s prices in today’s market.

 

You expect 3% income growth every yr? 3% income growth is not 3% increment.

 

It is average fresh grad (0 yrs exp) in 2019 being paid  3% more than average fresh grade (also 0 yrs exp) in 2018. Don't have to be fresh grade but exp should be constant.

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Showster

Showster

Twincharged

My projections were actually 2%. 3% is to show the max it will go to.

 

Singapore fresh grad salary has no issue meeting this 2% growth.

 

My relative's starting salary with the same qualifications as me (a dozen years later) is a whopping 33.3% higher! Real figures!

 

 

You expect 3% income growth every yr? 3% income growth is not 3% increment.

 

It is average fresh grad (0 yrs exp) in 2019 being paid  3% more than average fresh grade (also 0 yrs exp) in 2018. Don't have to be fresh grade but exp should be constant.

 

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Showster

Showster

Twincharged
(edited)

Buy to live in, do consider older HDBs. The maintenance increases / interest changes for private can be quite unfriendly unless one has huge buffers to carry on. Unless one has an existing HDB or paid private to hide, then go ahead.

 

Buy to invest and rent out awaiting appreciation, I feel the tide is turning, or at least it won't get any worse. The equity bob should have shaken investors sufficiently, who might be willing now to pay a premium to secure safety. Property has to be a long term hold though. Worse it can go, -5%. Highest it can go, refer to bro Mercs posts.

 

 

 

What warnings or advices will you give now?

 

Edited by Showster
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Ash2017

Ash2017

Twincharged

to each his or her own

 

stock

 

if got no time to monitor don't play 

if want to play but blue chips with good dividend yield

 

property

 

if for own stay anytime is a relatively good time rather then renting

if buy property location location location

if invest in property make sure you calculate the cost of maintenance including management fee (Orange Groove is a killer)

the type of property for investing - I find offices/warehouses/shops relatively easier because tenant takes care of everything

 

 

 

If that few hundred thousand lost in stocks was invested into property instead, would have been collecting rental with tenant helping pay up the bank loan, while enjoying super low interest rates for many years, if lucky enough to have met with enbloc fever, would have even seen that few hundred thousand easily up few folds to become millions.

During uncertain times and especially in a volatile stock market, best play for stocks is do fast in fast out, with exception to companies with healthy balance sheet/strong expansion plans/ offering good div yield to justify the risk of holding long term. With stock prices often doing rollercoaster, in out few rounds would already have made some good money.

Invest in stock market rather than SG property? lol [sly] good luck [:p]

 

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Showster

Showster

Twincharged
(edited)

You expect 3% income growth every yr? 3% income growth is not 3% increment.

 

It is average fresh grad (0 yrs exp) in 2019 being paid 3% more than average fresh grade (also 0 yrs exp) in 2018. Don't have to be fresh grade but exp should be constant.

This trend is also seen in the household income growth and median income growth. Given that the top 20-30th percentile income earners will get consistent income growth which is way higher than 3%, the base of 3% is sufficient to support the steady background price growth of 2-3%. Edited by Showster
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Lala81

Lala81

Hypersonic

Polycarbonate on aluminium awning, say for a 3 by 5m stretch - 5k, 50% more for glass

Painting of an intermediate terrace - exterior - around 5k plus scaffolding. Interior around 4k or less depending on the size

 

Toilets... wooo if you hack, the costs can be pretty high, especially if you use fancy brand toilet ware...

 

I'm guessing his "awning" is probably something more permanent. He only wants high quality stuff.

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therock

therock

Supersonic

I'm guessing his "awning" is probably something more permanent. He only wants high quality stuff.

 

Don't knock polycarbonate bro...

 

It may not be a palatial style, but it's pretty permanent  [thumbsup]

post-173193-0-32254300-1546860426_thumb.jpg

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Mercs

Mercs

Hypersonic

u mean buy 2 FH Landed ?

Yes, as mentioned by bro Showster -

 

"After paying off 1 FH landed, they bought another FH landed when prices were down, paying ABSD plus BSD over 200K"

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Mercs

Mercs

Hypersonic

to each his or her own

 

stock

 

if got no time to monitor don't play

if want to play but blue chips with good dividend yield

 

property

 

if for own stay anytime is a relatively good time rather then renting

if buy property location location location

if invest in property make sure you calculate the cost of maintenance including management fee (Orange Groove is a killer)

the type of property for investing - I find offices/warehouses/shops relatively easier because tenant takes care of everything

I concur [:p] if downturn do come, best time to bargain shopping load up on 'cheap' blue chips with good div yield for long term play [;)]
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Wt_know

Wt_know

Supersonic

Either there are a lot of people who just like to kaypoh, or there are a lot of folks with spare cash...

a lot of spare cash

hard truth

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Mercs

Mercs

Hypersonic

These are potential buyers, but i reckon at this juncture, many are just 'window shopping'

 

With the abundance of new launches in 2019, choices galore, so there's really no hurry.

 

If developers dun price them attractively, uphill task to move units [;)]

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