The Perfect Storm of the Stock Market III

[Wt_know]

On 3/20/2025 at 5:14 PM, Throttle2 said:

right now for my portfolio Fixed income is about 60% Equity about 25%

I dont expect any significant change in 5 yrs.

We have differing circumstances, risk appetites so what applies to me may not apply to you

wah ... eng eng cheng cheng $25K income per month

 

Edited March 20 by Wt_know

[Throttle2]

On 3/20/2025 at 1:24 PM, Lala81 said:

I think the time to buy was last week. So not for now. I bought a bit of kep infra trust on monday but that one i doubt will have any capital appreciation. Hardly budged today.

 

 

i do like KIT myself and recently bought some at 43cts also got dividends a month ago

Originally I made a bundle and sold out at the peak after taking all the special dividends.   documented in this thread earlier.

only issue is that they need to be able to renew their partnerships and expand their projects for long term revenue sustainability.

also maintain their operational cost to price in their services so that margins dont get thinned out.   

I might take a bet and buy more, very slowly, leading up to the next dividend payout.  Still early though

Edited March 20 by Throttle2

[Throttle2]

On 3/20/2025 at 5:22 PM, Wt_know said:

wah ... eng eng cheng cheng $25K income per month

 

More than $25kpm actually, but who's counting?  heh hehh ehhe 

if i continued working, it would be much more than double this amount but life is more than that... 

Now everyday i go to bed happy and wake up happy......whether its Monday or Sunday... Priceless

 

 

You Crypto King lah, I know.  you already made a few million dollars there, just quiet quiet, lay low

Edited March 20 by Throttle2

[Voodooman]

On 3/20/2025 at 1:17 PM, Wt_know said:

youtube-guru said ... Fed cutting rates cannot "save" Reits ...

especially Reits with PRC exposure ... jit dong jeng!

 

 

There is risk and there is risk.

Don't want to take risk, just buy t bills and SSB and be happy with 2.6%. 

[TangoCharlie]

On 3/20/2025 at 11:09 AM, Throttle2 said:

and i should have held on to all my 100lots of STE bought at $2++ until today.  

Powell seem to have assured 2 cuts this year.   but regardless, Whens the best time to buy income instruments?  when the yields are high, now...I also said many times already

 

Unlike STE, I don't remember you sharing any specific paper.

Care to share one wun wun sgd paper less than 5 years?🙏

[Throttle2]

On 3/21/2025 at 9:10 AM, TangoCharlie said:

Unlike STE, I don't remember you sharing any specific paper.

Care to share one wun wun sgd paper less than 5 years?🙏

It pointless. There are so many yet so few.  Just look up the yield vs the issuer name younlike
Moreoever SG bond market is very immature. 
most issues are not even rated becos people dont care or bother.

I did mentioned several in a discussion with Voodooman.  I recall he bought Commerzbank . There was also a discussion on the Temasek backed PE paper.  I also tallked about HPL issue as the yield was above 5%pa for less than 5 yrs at the height of the Iswaran case. 

Again for SG market, the short term papers are very limited.  And the issue sizes are not even international benchmark size.   So liquidity or tight spreads may not be there.  Moreover, each bite is $250k    

what is oon oon and what kind of yield you expect for less than 5 yrs now?  To me, none, the ship has sailed.  I feel that as the demand is higher than supply, issuers of SGD papers can get away with lower rates than it really is.   In other ways, if you are price taker, bid offer soread is simply too wide to make good sense.  

Thats why i myself havent bought any SGD bonds since mid last year. 

i have exposure to a lot more US , european and regional bonds than purely SGD bonds for above reasons

Edited March 21 by Throttle2

[TangoCharlie]

On 3/21/2025 at 10:23 AM, Throttle2 said:

It pointless. There are so many yet so few.  Just look up the yield vs the issuer name younlike
Moreoever SG bond market is very immature. 
most issues are not even rated becos people dont care or bother.

I did mentioned several in a discussion with Voodooman.  I recall he bought Commerzbank . There was also a discussion on the Temasek backed PE paper.  I also tallked about HPL issue as the yield was above 5%pa for less than 5 yrs at the height of the Iswaran case. 

Again for SG market, the short term papers are very limited.  And the issue sizes are not even international benchmark size.   So liquidity or tight spreads may not be there.  Moreover, each bite is $250k    

what is oon oon and what kind of yield you expect for less than 5 yrs now?  To me, none, the ship has sailed.  I feel that as the demand is higher than supply, issuers of SGD papers can get away with lower rates than it really is.   In other ways, if you are price taker, bid offer soread is simply too wide to make good sense.  

Thats why i myself havent bought any SGD bonds since mid last year. 

i have exposure to a lot more US , european and regional bonds than purely SGD bonds for above reasons

Thanks. bro voodooman's call on cmzb paper was spot on! 👍🙏

I've been trying to increase my bond holding for some years now. About 25% at the moment from zero. I'm 57 already and felt too heavy on equity still.

 

[Voodooman]

On 3/21/2025 at 11:11 AM, TangoCharlie said:

Thanks. bro voodooman's call on cmzb paper was spot on! 👍🙏

I've been trying to increase my bond holding for some years now. About 25% at the moment from zero. I'm 57 already and felt too heavy on equity still.

 

Welcome. Happy to share but note CMZB credit risk, IMHO, is a little higher than say similar AT2 SGD papers issued by HSBC, ANZ, BNP and DB. It is more dependent on wholesale funding than say, HSBC and BNP.

The yield for that handful of AT2 bonds denominated in SGD (I don't do AT1 generally) are now trading much lower than last year, so the ship has sailed somewhat. To still get 5% yield, you need to consider AT1 papers (HSBC just issued a perps on Tuesday at around 5%).

Agree with T2, Singapore corporate papers are mostly not rated and to me, offer crazily low coupon for the risk, don't make sense to me.  Maybe I am biased but big corporates have failed regularly but bank collapses are much less frequent.

I have deployed some money into REIT and REIT ETF recently as bonds have ran but not REIT.  To me, they are quasi fixed income. Not a recommendation to buy hor, just sharing.  This is not a easy market to invest, prefer beaten down stocks or sectors (preferably with yield) to limit downside.

Edited March 21 by Voodooman

[TangoCharlie]

On 3/21/2025 at 12:28 PM, Voodooman said:

Welcome. Happy to share but note CMZB credit risk, IMHO, is a little higher than say similar AT2 SGD papers issued by HSBC, ANZ, BNP and DB. It is more dependent on wholesale funding than say, HSBC and BNP.

The yield for that handful of AT2 bonds denominated in SGD (I don't do AT1 generally) are now trading much lower than last year, so the ship has sailed somewhat. To still get 5% yield, you need to consider AT1 papers (HSBC just issued a perps on Tuesday at around 5%).

Agree with T2, Singapore corporate papers are mostly not rated and to me, offer crazily low coupon for the risk, don't make sense to me.  Maybe I am biased but big corporates have failed regularly but bank collapses are much less frequent.

I have deployed some money into REIT and REIT ETF recently as bonds have ran but not REIT.  To me, they are quasi fixed income. Not a recommendation to buy hor, just sharing.  This is not a easy market to invest, prefer beaten down stocks or sectors (preferably with yield) to limit downside.

Thanks bro. Not getting the new HSBC paper as I am still holding one from them (USD). With coupons just broke even, lol. 

I am too heavy on the financial sector, both equity and bond. Took some money off equity recently. Maybe just keep in money market fund for the time being.

[Throttle2]

Wow its another Monday, times flies....

Market a bit soft this week

[Volvobrick]

On 3/16/2025 at 6:43 PM, Wt_know said:

up >60% liao ...

still early or too late?    

 

HSTECH dropped quite a bit today. Go in if your are brave. Don't say never jio!

 

[Wt_know]

On 3/25/2025 at 4:15 PM, Volvobrick said:

HSTECH dropped quite a bit today. Go in if your are brave. Don't say never jio!

will nimble some when it hover around 50 days moving average

[Wt_know]

AMDK FTW !

cannot fight PRC Huawei 5G ... national security

cannot fight PRC Tiktok ... ban

cannot fight PRC BYD EV ... 25% tariff 

what's next? just stop all container ships coming from PRC ... all set liao ! 

Edited March 27 by Wt_know

[Lala81]

Wow STI almost reaching 4000. 

 

Edited March 27 by Lala81

[Volvobrick]

On 3/27/2025 at 10:28 AM, Lala81 said:

Wow STI almost reaching 4000. 

 

Tariffs? What tariffs? 

Wish all here huat to the moon! 

[Wt_know]

On 3/27/2025 at 10:30 AM, Volvobrick said:

Tariffs? What tariffs? 

Wish all here huat to the moon! 

tariffs meaning PRC will divert all to asia countries to export to AMDK USA … lol

SG <> USA got FTA right?

Edited March 27 by Wt_know

[Voodooman]

On 3/27/2025 at 10:06 AM, Wt_know said:

AMDK FTW !

cannot fight PRC Huawei 5G ... national security

cannot fight PRC Tiktok ... ban

cannot fight PRC BYD EV ... 25% tariff 

what's next? just stop all container ships coming from PRC ... all set liao ! 

With high tariff on everything from steel to aluminum to copper, US auto manufacturers will need maximum protection.

What is next? Semiconductor? Ship building? Energy? Pharmaceuticals? Telecommunications?

Really hard to invest these days.  

[Mkl22]

On 3/27/2025 at 11:33 AM, Voodooman said:

With high tariff on everything from steel to aluminum to copper, US auto manufacturers will need maximum protection.

What is next? Semiconductor? Ship building? Energy? Pharmaceuticals? Telecommunications?

Really hard to invest these days.  

Buy Toto better