Is it really cheaper to own an EV?

[Johnmo89]

@Voodooman 

2 hours ago, Voodooman said:

The battery argument is still being debated but I just don't believe billions of small ICE in cars, burning petrol and diesel, is contributing less to global warming than big ass highly efficient power plants. The efficiency between the 2 is significant.

Everything is ambiguous here.
Let's compare air pollution by cars in terms of the amount of CO2 emitted precisely when they move.
It would be logical to compare the CO2 emissions from burning gasoline in conventional cars and the CO2 emissions from generating electricity for electric vehicles to cover a certain distance. Take the average for internal combustion engines - 40 miles require 1 gallon of gasoline. And also take the average of electric motors, it takes 10 kWh of energy to cover 40 miles.

A gallon of gasoline, when burned by a car, emits 8.887 grams of CO2 (according to EPA). The production of the equivalent of 10 kWh of electricity, including the full cycle from extraction, production, transport and combustion, emits about 9,750 grams of CO2 when produced in coal-fired power plants (according to the office of Science and Technology UK).
The environmental friendliness of electric vehicles depends on the type of power plant where electricity is generated - in the case of coal-fired power plants, all environmental friendliness comes to naught, with gas-fired power generation, electric vehicles are already more beneficial for the atmosphere, but not much, when electricity is produced by hydropower, solar, nuclear or wind energy, electric vehicles are much more environmentally friendly. But the problem is that coal still dominates the global electricity generation market and will continue to do so for a long time to come. https://money.cnn.com/2011/09/19/markets/global_energy_use/index.htm

 

Edited February 17, 2022 by Johnmo89

[Alternapkin]

@Johnmo89 

The numbers are not equivalent. A power station, even the dirtiest coal ones, is many times more efficient than a small heat engine that has compromises for packaging and performance. Travel distance is not a good benchmark for comparison as there many types of vehicles/driving styles/situations. A petrol engine only extracts 2-4kwh (of work) from 1 gallon of petrol (typical 25-30% efficiency). You can see if we simply multiply your 8.887 figure by 2 or 3, it is vastly in favor of the power station. There is no comparison.

The energy mix in most countries are already shifting towards better alternatives, with governments committing to carbon targets. It is also a lot easier to replace a few powerplants than a few million privately owned vehicles. 

Electrification of cars is here whether you like it or not, and it will be driven by global demand and industry. Here in Singapore we can only follow. What happens in 2025 when Mercedes only launches electric models ? Nobody will buy Mercedes from then on ? 

Every petrol car replaced with an EV is many thousands of liters of lost petrol sales. There is a minimum viable market that needs to exist for petrol stations to make sense. Above a certain market share, it becomes uneconomical to operate a petrol station as per the current setup. This feeds into a self reinforcing cycle which will accelerate the shift. This is a good video that explains.

 

Edited February 17, 2022 by Alternapkin

[Johnmo89]

14 hours ago, Alternapkin said:

@Johnmo89 

The numbers are not equivalent. A power station, even the dirtiest coal ones, is many times more efficient than a small heat engine that has compromises for packaging and performance. Travel distance is not a good benchmark for comparison as there many types of vehicles/driving styles/situations. A petrol engine only extracts 2-4kwh (of work) from 1 gallon of petrol (typical 25-30% efficiency). You can see if we simply multiply your 8.887 figure by 2 or 3, it is vastly in favor of the power station. There is no comparison.

The energy mix in most countries are already shifting towards better alternatives, with governments committing to carbon targets. It is also a lot easier to replace a few powerplants than a few million privately owned vehicles. 

Electrification of cars is here whether you like it or not, and it will be driven by global demand and industry. Here in Singapore we can only follow. What happens in 2025 when Mercedes only launches electric models ? Nobody will buy Mercedes from then on ? 

Every petrol car replaced with an EV is many thousands of liters of lost petrol sales. There is a minimum viable market that needs to exist for petrol stations to make sense. Above a certain market share, it becomes uneconomical to operate a petrol station as per the current setup. This feeds into a self reinforcing cycle which will accelerate the shift. This is a good video that explains.

 

My indicators (and I specified it) are average. Naturally, I understand that there are different types of driving, types of road surfaces, terrain conditions and so on. The values are statistical averages, since it is not possible to obtain their exact value. About the Mercedes. I don’t want to get into an argument with you, but I’m ready to bet all the money that I have that in 2025, the Germans may have two or three new electric models, but they will not give up the internal combustion engine (at least in the coming years ). And please note, I am NOT against electric vehicles. I just do not consider them a worthy replacement for internal combustion engines. Perhaps the amount of emissions into the atmosphere will decrease with the transition to electric traction, but not significantly. And whether we like it or not, as long as people buy ICE cars, they will dominate the roads. Perhaps in large cities, electric vehicles will soon prevail. But in various mountainous regions of the Caucasus or Afghanistan, or somewhere in Vietnam or China (and there are a huge number of them). There electric cars will not appear for decades. I understand, you will say that these are third world countries and so on ... BUT demand creates supply. And until they abandon the internal combustion engine (and they will not), the production of such cars will not stop.

[Alternapkin]

@Johnmo89 

I think the point that you're missing is that this is a technology disruption, the climate benefits play very little into it. If you look at this latest advert for the F150 lightning, notice how environment is not mentioned at all ? People choose to drive EVs because they accelerate fast, have instant torque, are cheaper to operate/maintain and have superior NVH. The "green" aspect is just a good PR side story.

In China (the world's largest auto market), that EVs will eventually take over is a foregone conclusion. Even Toyota which has championed hydrogen and hybrids for decades is forced to come up with an all electric line-up. Large markets drive adoption. Even in the poorest regions of the world, people have smartphones. You know what those mountainous villages also have ? Electricity. 

 

[Johnmo89]

18 minutes ago, Alternapkin said:

@Johnmo89 

I think the point that you're missing is that this is a technology disruption, the climate benefits play very little into it. If you look at this latest advert for the F150 lightning, notice how environment is not mentioned at all ? People choose to drive EVs because they accelerate fast, have instant torque, are cheaper to operate/maintain and have superior NVH. The "green" aspect is just a good PR side story.

In China (the world's largest auto market), that EVs will eventually take over is a foregone conclusion. Even Toyota which has championed hydrogen and hybrids for decades is forced to come up with an all electric line-up. Large markets drive adoption. Even in the poorest regions of the world, people have smartphones. You know what those mountainous villages also have ? Electricity. 

 

Are you sure about the electricity in the outlying villages? Do you know how people get electricity there? From autonomous generators. Do you know what they work on? On petrol. Do you know their effectiveness? Enough to charge phones and watch the news for an hour. And I'm not making these facts up. I traveled around Asia for four years. And not just in hotels. I traveled almost all of Vietnam and Laos on a bike, so I know what I'm talking about. Most people in the villages do not even have refrigerators, and food is stored in cellars.
And I was talking just about environmental aspects, and not about the efficiency of electric motors. Yes, they have more acceleration and torque (although this is debatable), but the resource, at least for now, is much less.

[t0y0ta]

On 2/17/2022 at 12:17 PM, Kklim said:

Drivers hoot over EV charger access! 
https://thedriven.io/2022/02/08/ev-charger-wars-anger-and-death-threats-as-frustrated-owners-unplug-electric-cars/

Should soon happen in SG as more EVs and Teslas get released.

SG drivers even more rash and hot-headed.

[Alternapkin]

@Johnmo89 

Well you were referring to China so I just took that as an example. How many years ago was your travels ? I also rode around Vietnam and the golden triangle way back but will not take what I've seen then as the reality now. Even in Vietnam rural areas are already 99.26% electrified 2 years ago. In any case I highly doubt demand from a few remote villages is going to shape global automotive manufacturing strategy.

I'm not sure what you mean by the "resource is much less", but I was referring to the fact that consumers will choose to buy EVs primarily as they're fun to drive and cheaper to own over time and not because it "saves the earth".

Edited February 18, 2022 by Alternapkin

[Johnmo89]

@Alternapkin 

I returned from Vietnam at the beginning of March 2020 (I don’t think that something has changed much there during the quarantine). The figure of 99.26%, of course, pleases, but not everything is so smooth there. At least in the vicinity of Nha Trang (and more specifically in the Ninh Khoa area), the gyros around Dalat, as well as the residents of the villages between Da Nang and Hanoi, say hello to electricity. And this is considering that this neighborhood is a fairly large city. What can we say about more remote points, such as the suburb of Buon Ma Thuot. Although according to the government, of course, everything is fine and excellent. In cities. In big cities. But it's not about that.

We are talking about electric vehicles. I agree with you about the words that buyers will have fun driving such cars. But the fact is that so far they are perceived as toys. And then there is such a factor as reliability. ICEs have already proven themselves. Cars are in usage for years and decades. Electric vehicles simply don't have such a huge base. Therefore, there can be no serious attitude towards them yet. All this is interesting, but nothing more. 

[t0y0ta]

36 minutes ago, Alternapkin said:

@Johnmo89 

Well you were referring to China so I just took that as an example. How many years ago was your travels ? I also rode around Vietnam and the golden triangle way back but will not take what I've seen then as the reality now. Even in Vietnam rural areas are already 99.26% electrified 2 years ago. In any case I highly doubt demand from a few remote villages is going to shape global automotive manufacturing strategy.

I'm not sure what you mean by the "resource is much less", but I was referring to the fact that consumers will choose to buy EVs primarily as they're fun to drive and cheaper to own over time and not because it "saves the earth".

Why get into arguments over EV win or lose. better or worse for env.

The battle will be won by paying consumers buying what they want.

[PSP415]

32 minutes ago, t0y0ta said:

Why get into arguments over EV win or lose. better or worse for env.

The battle will be won by paying consumers buying what they want.

The discussions are actually interesting and offers both sides of insights. 

Personally, I will not be too quick to jump onto the EV electrified wagon but stay with my petrolified wagon until its either EOL for me or my legs or simply by then it's really economically cheaper to get one that is commercially more viable. 

But these 2 bros got good info to share and great that it's a discussion, one can agree to disagree without any hair pulling, name calling or face punching.

👍I like. 

Stay safe 

Cheers 

 

[Alternapkin]

52 minutes ago, t0y0ta said:

Why get into arguments over EV win or lose. better or worse for env.

The battle will be won by paying consumers buying what they want.

True, it's not as if our discussions will have any impact but it's good to understand from someone who is passionate about their opinion/perspective. As long as it remains civil, the resulting clarifications could be constructive.

@Johnmo89 

Fair enough regarding Vietnam. I do feel it is not in any way an issue for these areas currently though since most of them primarily use scooters for transportation. Electric scooters/motorcycles are far from being as mature as cars and are a good 3-5 years behind.

Regarding reliability, the EV drivetrain is without question more reliable than any ICE platform. This is simply due to the difference in the number of moving parts (a 100x difference) and the fact that it is not harvesting energy from controlled explosions. The fact that they are reliable now speaks more about our engineering ability than the technology itself. There are still many things that will break, misalign, wear out, leak etc. 

Cars from new EV manufacturers like Tesla however, suffer from immature production processes and QC, stuff which a traditional automaker has gotten down to a T. This is why we have issues with panel gaps, rear boot closing affecting wiring etc. You don't see this in EVs made by more mature auto manufacturers like Volkswagen or any of the big OEM carmakers in China (SAIC, FAW, BYD). Btw, you don't become the world's most valuable automaker by making toy cars.

 

Edited February 18, 2022 by Alternapkin

[Johnmo89]

@Alternapkin 

Btw, you don't become the world's most valuable automaker by making only EVs as well. Even the largest automakers are betting on their gasoline models first, and then on electric cars.

[Alternapkin]

@Johnmo89 

You must have missed the graph in my link.

Tesla (who only makes EVs) is not only the world's most valuable automaker, but has a bigger market cap than the next 6 automakers combined.

Edited February 18, 2022 by Alternapkin

[Stratovarius]

Saw this video a few years back but i think is still valid. let me fave engineer explain. 😁

[Voodooman]

On 2/17/2022 at 2:05 PM, Johnmo89 said:

@Voodooman 

Everything is ambiguous here.
Let's compare air pollution by cars in terms of the amount of CO2 emitted precisely when they move.
It would be logical to compare the CO2 emissions from burning gasoline in conventional cars and the CO2 emissions from generating electricity for electric vehicles to cover a certain distance. Take the average for internal combustion engines - 40 miles require 1 gallon of gasoline. And also take the average of electric motors, it takes 10 kWh of energy to cover 40 miles.

A gallon of gasoline, when burned by a car, emits 8.887 grams of CO2 (according to EPA). The production of the equivalent of 10 kWh of electricity, including the full cycle from extraction, production, transport and combustion, emits about 9,750 grams of CO2 when produced in coal-fired power plants (according to the office of Science and Technology UK).
The environmental friendliness of electric vehicles depends on the type of power plant where electricity is generated - in the case of coal-fired power plants, all environmental friendliness comes to naught, with gas-fired power generation, electric vehicles are already more beneficial for the atmosphere, but not much, when electricity is produced by hydropower, solar, nuclear or wind energy, electric vehicles are much more environmentally friendly. But the problem is that coal still dominates the global electricity generation market and will continue to do so for a long time to come. https://money.cnn.com/2011/09/19/markets/global_energy_use/index.htm

 

Thanks for sharing.

Given this is a car forum and we are all petrolheads, I would compare Tesla model 3's 40 miles on 10 KW of charge to BMW M3, which gets you 20 miles per gallon. Lol but that is not the discussion here.

Anyway, a gallon of petrol costs $3.80 in the US while 10 kw of electricity, delivering the same mileage (in your example), will cost you less than $1.50. The math is telling of the future of EV 

I agree EV sales and adoption were pushed along by Govt mandates and subsidies in the last 10 years but falling cost and improved battery technology (still at infancy) have now made them a viable alternative to replace ICE vehicles. EV subsidy has gradually fallen in recent years (China, US, Europe) but EV sales has continued to rise. The more than 100 years old ICE technology, on the other hand, has probably plateaued.

Our ICE car will probably end up in Africa when we banned ICE sales or in Vietnam but I don't believe it will change the general trajectile. Hydrogen may yet win the battle but I think ICE will die off in 10 to 20 years. You can't fight technology. 

[Rm2s]

@Stratovarius 

Great video.

My thinking is:

1. When power plants upgrade, though not very often (like once in every 20 years), they will be using newer and even more efficient generators which will immediately benefit all down-stream users. In Singapore's context, many of our power plants are aging and very likely some of them will start the upgrade process and we should see the CO2 numbers for us (can't speak for Vietnam, etc) dropping further.
2. Energy Market Authority (EMA) has constant running programme to encourage power plant operators to proposed energy efficiency projects to make the existing plants more environmental friendly. EMA will partially subsidise these projects and the power plants get to brag about their achievements. Again, as long as the plants get more efficient, all down-stream users benefit.
3. Production of batteries for EV will also get more efficient as the technology evolves, the numbers we use today will need to be updated as engineers find new ways to optimise the production processes. 
4. EV are heavily software driven, upgrading software to improve efficiency is a more likelier outcome as compared to incremental improvement for existing ICE cars already on the road. I think.

Those are my 4 cents.

[inlinesix]

21 minutes ago, Voodooman said:

Thanks for sharing.

Given this is a car forum and we are all petrolheads, I would compare Tesla model 3's 40 miles on 10 KW of charge to BMW M3, which gets you 20 miles per gallon. Lol but that is not the discussion here.

Anyway, a gallon of petrol costs $3.80 in the US while 10 kw of electricity, delivering the same mileage (in your example), will cost you less than $1.50. The math is telling of the future of EV 

I agree EV sales and adoption were pushed along by Govt mandates and subsidies in the last 10 years but falling cost and improved battery technology (still at infancy) have now made them a viable alternative to replace ICE vehicles. EV subsidy has gradually fallen in recent years (China, US, Europe) but EV sales has continued to rise. The more than 100 years old ICE technology, on the other hand, has probably plateaued.

Our ICE car will probably end up in Africa when we banned ICE sales or in Vietnam but I don't believe it will change the general trajectile. Hydrogen may yet win the battle but I think ICE will die off in 10 to 20 years. You can't fight technology. 

A lot of traditional carmakers will reduce R&D on ICE to catch up on EV Tech.

On the other hand, there is only 2 Hydrogen fuel cell car in the market.

 

[AndrewLee72]

So problem is EV charging station and charging time! Can this Batt swop be feasible in Spore ?