Will the COE bubble burst?

[Mllcg]

In my humble opinion, I think one is being naive if he/she thinks a change in government is all it'll take to turn around the situation. We've got a bigger challenge on our hands, in balancing the desire for car ownership and Singapore's lack of pure physical space, that goes beyond mere politics.

 

politics does help to some extent..

 

see myanmar..

 

change in govt= better life for those inside

[Ets888]

if theres even a chance for the bubble to burst in near future, the earliest would be 2015 i guess...demand is still so high and govt's move to slow down the demand has not worked as effectively as they expected to be, therefore, we're seeing the coe prices grow helplessly...sigh

[Docomospur]

politics does help to some extent..

 

see myanmar..

 

change in govt= better life for those inside

 

Of course, politics do matter if you're talking about things in such a general context. I'm talking specifically about the COE situation in Singapore. Improvements to the COE system could come from the PAP or an opposition party; doesn't mean that if you vote out the PAP, things on the road will automatically get better.

[Fastfive1]

Of course, politics do matter if you're talking about things in such a general context. I'm talking specifically about the COE situation in Singapore. Improvements to the COE system could come from the PAP or an opposition party; doesn't mean that if you vote out the PAP, things on the road will automatically get better.

 

This is an apt statement. Unfortunately lots of narrow minded singaporeans fail to realise the limitations of their views.

[13177]

My area also got 1 owner changed from the old Altis (same model as mine) to a brand new Altis but kept the license number.......

Lol, these people really rich! No wonder COE will never come down. Even COE reach 150K, people will still change/buy car!

[Kar_lover]

politics does help to some extent..

 

see myanmar..

 

change in govt= better life for those inside

 

Dat is not change in govt lah. It's change in the whole system! From military junta to (partial) democracy. Wa lau....

 

[Kar_lover]

if theres even a chance for the bubble to burst in near future, the earliest would be 2015 i guess...demand is still so high and govt's move to slow down the demand has not worked as effectively as they expected to be, therefore, we're seeing the coe prices grow helplessly...sigh

 

In the first place the COE is not a "bubble". Property can be a bubble cos ppl keep buying with the expectation of selling off for profit in the near future (i.e. speculation). So the bubble forms cos buyers keep buying expecting to sell at even higher prices property price eventually crashes (i.e. bubble burst) those who bought at the highest point just before the crash will end up with big loss.

 

We don't buy cars to speculate on COE. Cos in the first place the COE doesn't belong to us. It is tied to the car. Even if COE price continues to rise anyone who buys a new car to sell off later will not be able to make profit as used cars are automatically 15-20% cheaper than new car. Even if can make will be very minimal. Whereas property ppl can easily make high 5 digit or 6 digit profits.

[Fuelsaver]

COE will no go down unless,

 

Singapore buy over Johor

Half of Singaporean migrate to other countries.

just what i've in mind; quick quick ask garment to nego w north side!!! if cannot then propose profit sharing 80-20 sin-msia (i manage, u take kopi lui).

 

some more can build many many more "cheaper" properties, malls, theme parks, resorts, entertainment centres, new roads.

 

all industries HUAT ah!!! employment rate = 99.9999%!!!

 

i support n vote ah...

[Angcheek]

In the first place the COE is not a "bubble". Property can be a bubble cos ppl keep buying with the expectation of selling off for profit in the near future (i.e. speculation). So the bubble forms cos buyers keep buying expecting to sell at even higher prices property price eventually crashes (i.e. bubble burst) those who bought at the highest point just before the crash will end up with big loss.

 

We don't buy cars to speculate on COE. Cos in the first place the COE doesn't belong to us. It is tied to the car. Even if COE price continues to rise anyone who buys a new car to sell off later will not be able to make profit as used cars are automatically 15-20% cheaper than new car. Even if can make will be very minimal. Whereas property ppl can easily make high 5 digit or 6 digit profits.

 

 

Its kind of a bubble to the LT@ ... Infact I think they are enjoying it.

[Angcheek]

just what i've in mind; quick quick ask garment to nego w north side!!! if cannot then propose profit sharing 80-20 sin-msia (i manage, u take kopi lui).

 

some more can build many many more "cheaper" properties, malls, theme parks, resorts, entertainment centres, new roads.

 

all industries HUAT ah!!! employment rate = 99.9999%!!!

 

i support n vote ah...

 

 

Iskandar ?

[Baphomet]

in Singapore is it really the lack of space that causes the traffic congestions? or is it poor city planning?

 

There's bigger cities which have traffic jams much worst then Singapore.

 

I agree with a few bros here.. we should decentralize the business district.. More needs to be done on this.

 

Edited January 7, 2013 by Baphomet

[Jtb]

On the contrary, I expect COEs to continue to rise. 100k for Cat A this year, with so many new models coming out in this category, is certainly not inconceivable. Singaporeans have money, and those that buy the BMWs, Audis, Mercs and Volvos will continue to do so.

 

I think we'd need a serious recession and/or a sharp drop in property prices to affect the appetite for cars. That, or some meddling by the government to bring prices down (e.g. release of more quota or cessation/curtailing of long-term loans for COE and/or cars.

 

agreed with your point, maybe expect Cat A to rise higher than Cat B as new cars are here.

[Tjkbeluga]

i believe it will burst as time will prove it to us.

 

now sihoryi is like the year of 1994-95 like tat keep on going high, as i believe it could b a cycle of every 18yrs. soon or later it will drop to around 20+k!!

The COE plunged because gahmen changed the policy to allow flooding of COE. Do you think they will make the same mistake again?

[Vextan]

in Singapore is it really the lack of space that causes the traffic congestions? or is it poor city planning?

 

There's bigger cities which have traffic jams much worst then Singapore.

 

I agree with a few bros here.. we should decentralize the business district.. More needs to be done on this.

Decentralising business district is an obvious solution, but it affects other things, like imagine the whole country become a business district in the future instead of just shenton way and few other locations, the problems that will arise due to the close proximity of commercial buildings with dwelling places, the logistics, infrastructure, parking, transport, eateries, landscape changes and whatever. The advantages are obvious but what about the spill over effects ? A lot has to be considered besides the benefits of decentralisation.

Edited January 7, 2013 by Vextan

[Thedream]

Decentralising business district is an obvious solution, but it affects other things, like imagine the whole country become a business district in the future instead of just shenton way and few other locations, the problems that will arise due to the close proximity of commercial buildings with dwelling places, the logistics, infrastructure, parking, transport, eateries, landscape changes and whatever. The advantages are obvious but what about the spill over effects ? A lot has to be considered besides the benefits of decentralisation.

 

Sorry. What are the problems you foresee? We're in agreement that URA will need to revamp their plans even at a conceptual level.

[Baphomet]

Decentralising business district is an obvious solution, but it affects other things, like imagine the whole country become a business district in the future instead of just shenton way and few other locations, the problems that will arise due to the close proximity of commercial buildings with dwelling places, the logistics, infrastructure, parking, transport, eateries, landscape changes and whatever. The advantages are obvious but what about the spill over effects ? A lot has to be considered besides the benefits of decentralisation.

 

I agree that decentralizing of the business district requires careful planning and the government did in fact put some efforts in doing it e.g. Changi Business Park, Seletar Aerospace Hub, International Business Park. I applaud them for that.

 

But the further extension of the CBD south into Marina Bay, imo, is like taking a step backwards.. This extension of the CBD will just increase the load on our already strained roads and public transportations.

Edited January 7, 2013 by Baphomet

[Vextan]

Sorry. What are the problems you foresee? We're in agreement that URA will need to revamp their plans even at a conceptual level.

Yes but requires careful and long term planning. Trust me, if commercial buildings are to be located in housing estate, other sets of problems and complains will set in , like over-crowdedness, increase of food prices and rentals, noise and polution, road congestion, delivery trucks and lorries in vicinity etc . Just imagine, a commercial building is erected right in front or beside your flat, or a school (think safety), and the domitories ... if one studies civil engineering, can understand that buildings have to integrate ino the surrounding landscape and not stick out like a sore tree.

Edited January 7, 2013 by Vextan

[Baphomet]

abit extreme to say that decentralise means must have offices directly next to residential buildings leh..

 

places like Seletar Aerospace Hub and Changi Business parks are good examples. They are away from CBD and not too near to residential areas. Im sure there's other places we can explore for this.

Edited January 7, 2013 by Baphomet