Next Coe this Monday 25mar

[Thaiyotakamli]

So ppl who bought honda with 30-40k coe guaranteed few weeks back earn the most lol

[Bigbadguy]

I "heard" some AD is still giving 90% loans, Its it true? if like that the coe sure won't fall at all.

[Wind30]

iam curious on the part that ADs can manipulate COE prices.

pls explain how are they able to do it,especially when u mentioned they can easily manipulate it?

 

actually if you think about it, how many big ADs are there???

 

Currently the bidding is dominated by a few ADs right?

 

Example, lets say there is 4 ADs.

 

If just TWO of the ADs collaborate together, they could theoretically fix the price because the price is set by the LOWEST successful bidder. This is because if the volume of these two AD is high enough such that if they remove their bids totally, the COE market will crash, then they could theoretically then set the COE price anywhere above the crash price.

 

So is my assumption true? If the two biggest AD removes ALL the bids for one bidding cycle, how low will COE fall? 10k? 1k?

 

If that is true, these two AD could just collaborate together and fix the price anywhere they like above the crash price.

 

Edited March 27, 2013 by Wind30

[Sdxx]

actually if you think about it, how many big ADs are there???

 

Currently the bidding is dominated by a few ADs right?

 

Example, lets say there is 4 ADs.

 

If just TWO of the ADs collaborate together, they could theoretically fix the price because the price is set by the LOWEST successful bidder. This is because if the volume of these two AD is high enough such that if they remove their bids totally, the COE market will crash, then they could theoretically then set the COE price anywhere above the crash price.

 

So is my assumption true? If the two biggest AD removes ALL the bids for one bidding cycle, how low will COE fall? 10k? 1k?

 

If that is true, these two AD could just collaborate together and fix the price anywhere they like above the crash price.

 

What are you talking? They don't bid no COE then how to sell their cars? Or are you suggesting all ADs take turn to bid? Then who decides whose turn and how many COEs when come to my turn?

[Gnixer]

What are you talking? They don't bid no COE then how to sell their cars? Or are you suggesting all ADs take turn to bid? Then who decides whose turn and how many COEs when come to my turn?

also depend is confirm guarantee 1 bid or 3/6 bids package

[Camrysfa]

 

Cat B rose $15K ... tomorro car prices will move up in tandem, ppl find it unattractive again, next bid COE soften again.... see saw

[Warthog]

The purpose of COE is to subject prices to free market forces.

 

Idea of cartel or conspiracy is pure fantasy. Don't find a bogeyman for your unhappiness. Prices is high because demand exceeds supply. Likewise, during those times that COE is below $10,000, is it a conspiracy too??? Did Toyota and Nissan conspire to bid low so that the COE remains low...

 

Price mechanism has its limitations too and that is why you need government intervention to keep the balance.

 

 

[Mac_bart]

The purpose of COE is to subject prices to free market forces.

 

In a truly free market, you won't need a COE to buy a car.

[Mercs]

Used car dealers going to jack up prices again?

[Wind30]

What are you talking? They don't bid no COE then how to sell their cars? Or are you suggesting all ADs take turn to bid? Then who decides whose turn and how many COEs when come to my turn?

 

err... buyer can bid for COE himself... disallow other people bidding for COE on your behalf

[Jp66]

Cat B rose $15K ... tomorro car prices will move up in tandem, ppl find it unattractive again, next bid COE soften again.... see saw

no need to wait for tomorrow, BM already up the price liao

[Wind30]

The purpose of COE is to subject prices to free market forces.

 

Idea of cartel or conspiracy is pure fantasy. Don't find a bogeyman for your unhappiness. Prices is high because demand exceeds supply. Likewise, during those times that COE is below $10,000, is it a conspiracy too??? Did Toyota and Nissan conspire to bid low so that the COE remains low...

 

Price mechanism has its limitations too and that is why you need government intervention to keep the balance.

 

why is it pure fantasy?

 

A cartel can be found everywhere and is a possibility. In fact, I think mathematically for a bidding system to actually function well, I think a large number of INDEPENDENT bidders is a requirement.

 

I do think that the AD have a vested interest in controlling the price. It is not the quantum lah. Whether it is 10k or 80k, the AD will want to manipulate the prices depending on the kind of sales orders they have on hand.

 

It is also in their interests to have large fluctuations in the COE prices.

 

[Wind30]

Cat B rose $15K ... tomorro car prices will move up in tandem, ppl find it unattractive again, next bid COE soften again.... see saw

 

that is why I feel the AD are manipulating the market.

 

It is in their interest to generate fluctuations in the COE prices to spur sales and raise profit.

[Camrysfa]

iam curious on the part that ADs can manipulate COE prices.

pls explain how are they able to do it,especially when u mentioned they can easily manipulate it?

 

 

..... I don't think they can, unless they have a database of how many cash rich people are now in the maket to buy cars. think it is also a guessing game on their part. March 13 round 1, Cat B COE crashed 37%, but pricing only moved down less than 20%!

 

...... no dealer can go the opposite direction and offer their cars based on 10k COE.

[Sdxx]

err... buyer can bid for COE himself... disallow other people bidding for COE on your behalf

 

2 different things you said. ADs sit out and don't bid to make COE crash vs make a law so that ADs cannot bid on your behalf. You were saying the former earlier. But point taken, worth exploring don't allow ADs to bid.

[Sdxx]

In a truly free market, you won't need a COE to buy a car.

 

I think it's time people recognizes in our little dot we do need COE, or something similar to control car population. I think COE is fine but the wide swing in price is not ideal. Imaging buying something for 200k and 1 week or 1 month later the exact same thing is selling for 140k! Just an example.

[Camrysfa]

2 different things you said. ADs sit out and don't bid to make COE crash vs make a law so that ADs cannot bid on your behalf. You were saying the former earlier. But point taken, worth exploring don't allow ADs to bid.

 

 

... unless u also import the car uself, then it makes sense to cut AD out from bidding.

[Wind30]

But how far can dealer to dealer collaborate? Say there are 300 COEs and 3 big ADs got total of 400 cars on their order books. How do they collaborate? Sure there will be one who break rank. Business is dog eat dog. If so easy to collaborate then all construction company can co-operate and tender LTA/HDB project high high and make big profits instead of now where under-cutting each other.

 

duh...... surely you can see from your scenario it is easy to rig the bid.

 

Assuming that each of the AD has 133 orders. It really is not worth it for one of the AD to break ranks.

 

They can all decide to get 100 COE each at 10k lower than their "Order" price or one guy break ranks and get 133 COE this time round instead of 100 COEs and pay much more for their COEs in the future.

 

There is a reason why cartels exists because if there are a limited number of players, it always make sense for them to collaborate rather than outbid each other.

 

The basic defence against this is to have a large number of bidders so coordination is not possible.