Next Coe this Monday 25mar

[Thaiyotakamli]

Haolian ah you?

learn from u mah

 

but govt encourage more financial freedom by having less debt. COE 70k is quite a lot and taking debt mean more liability

[Throttle2]

learn from u mah

 

but govt encourage more financial freedom by having less debt. COE 70k is quite a lot and taking debt mean more liability

 

 

Good! Got future!

 

I also wish COE needs to be paid in full cash and cannot be part of the loan.

Maybe my wish will come true, after all I was the one who also ask for 50% down and 5yrs loan in 2010.

 

 

 

 

[Thaiyotakamli]

Good! Got future!

 

I also wish COE needs to be paid in full cash and cannot be part of the loan.

Maybe my wish will come true, after all I was the one who also ask for 50% down and 5yrs loan in 2010.

and by that time can buy new car already

new S class for u? no?

[Throttle2]

and by that time can buy new car already

new S class for u? no?

 

I won't ever buy new again.

 

Moreover , I got no money to down 50%

[Throttle2]

and by that time can buy new car already

new S class for u? no?

 

I won't ever buy new again.

 

Moreover , I got no money to down 50%

[Turbonetics]

actually if you think about it, how many big ADs are there???

 

Currently the bidding is dominated by a few ADs right?

 

Example, lets say there is 4 ADs.

 

If just TWO of the ADs collaborate together, they could theoretically fix the price because the price is set by the LOWEST successful bidder. This is because if the volume of these two AD is high enough such that if they remove their bids totally, the COE market will crash, then they could theoretically then set the COE price anywhere above the crash price.

 

So is my assumption true? If the two biggest AD removes ALL the bids for one bidding cycle, how low will COE fall? 10k? 1k?

 

If that is true, these two AD could just collaborate together and fix the price anywhere they like above the crash price.

 

 

first of all to really understand the COE bidding,quota and bids received,one need to know how the calculations work.

this one iam not very sure as i never go deep into it,but i believe it can be worked out.

here is an illustration example of how i think the COE bidding works(not real calculations): quota is 400 and bids received is 410 which is about 2.5% oversubscribed and the COE maybe $10k vs quota 300 and bids received is 410 which is 37% oversubscribed and the COE maybe around $30k.

 

and now:-

1). the ADs has to know exactly every number of oversubscribed bids will increase by how much($) or percentile(%) to exactly determine the COE price.

2). when they can worked out the above,they have to control the number of bids received to manipulate the COE price.

3). to control the bids received,ALL the ADs and individual bidders need to gang up and no miscalculations or probably at most 1% is allowed. provided nobody play punk.

if any 1 AD play punks and a slight miscalculations,i believe the COE price will varies quite noticeably.

 

No.2 alone is already not easy to achieved.

 

and definitely half of the ADs collaborate will not be enough also.

these are my personal thoughts on the COE prices.

Edited March 27, 2013 by Turbonetics

[Turbonetics]

..... I don't think they can, unless they have a database of how many cash rich people are now in the maket to buy cars. think it is also a guessing game on their part. March 13 round 1, Cat B COE crashed 37%, but pricing only moved down less than 20%!

 

...... no dealer can go the opposite direction and offer their cars based on 10k COE.

 

 

exactly i don't expect car price to drop according to COE price drop.

if the COE drop to $15k,do u think a Camry will be $100k?

[Chucky2007]

This coming Monday is another round of COE bidding...

[Camrysfa]

This coming Monday is another round of COE bidding...

 

 

amended to 10/4 and 25/4?

[Wind30]

first of all to really understand the COE bidding,quota and bids received,one need to know how the calculations work.

this one iam not very sure as i never go deep into it,but i believe it can be worked out.

here is an illustration example of how i think the COE bidding works(not real calculations): quota is 400 and bids received is 410 which is about 2.5% oversubscribed and the COE maybe $10k vs quota 300 and bids received is 410 which is 37% oversubscribed and the COE maybe around $30k.

 

and now:-

1). the ADs has to know exactly every number of oversubscribed bids will increase by how much($) or percentile(%) to exactly determine the COE price.

2). when they can worked out the above,they have to control the number of bids received to manipulate the COE price.

3). to control the bids received,ALL the ADs and individual bidders need to gang up and no miscalculations or probably at most 1% is allowed. provided nobody play punk.

if any 1 AD play punks and a slight miscalculations,i believe the COE price will varies quite noticeably.

 

No.2 alone is already not easy to achieved.

 

and definitely half of the ADs collaborate will not be enough also.

these are my personal thoughts on the COE prices.

 

your maths all wrong lah...

 

Let me put it this way.

 

Lets say there is

 

400 quota. And 600 bids. Put it another way, All you need to do is to control 201 bids you CAN SET THE COE price ANYWHERE below the lowest price of the 399 bids.

 

It does not matter how the other 399 bids because EVERYONE pays the lowest bidder. Bottom line is you just have to control a sizeable number of bids.

Edited March 27, 2013 by Wind30

[Ericgkl]

Cycle lor. Now Cyclist king of the roads.

[Wt_know]

yes, buyer who is the one is paying and no one is pointing a gun to their head.

but, they have no choice ... do they?

is there a FAIR CHANCE for buyer to buy car without coe and let him/her to decide what is the value of coe?

no choice, the value of the coe is determined by the dealer.

you talk to dealer, hey you set coe rebate at $73K means you don't expect the coe falls below $73K? isn't it too high?

dealer will ask you go fly kite. they will tell you, you go see all other dealer la ... all set $70K-73K rebate ... so you will LL go back to the dealer

ie: omv+arf+tax+gst+profit+coe = selling price. straightaway you know how much they factor as coe liao. isn't this mean coe is pre-determined even before bidding start (2 weeks later)

 

if a buyer want to buy a car, he/she goes to AD/PI and AD/PI all lump COE to the car

yes, he/she can bid the COE and then go buy a car. but, will AD/PI sell the car without COE in true value? answer is no.

 

give you a scenario, if all retailers in singapore sell rice at $50/kg ... do you think is buyer problem?

you can say, all don't eat rice la, there are alternatives.

it's easier said than done. one want to eat rice, one pay. similar to car.

 

and coe is dealer most lethal profit margin.

coe up $10K, car price up $10K

coe down $10K, car price down $5K (you laugh already, may be down $2K nia)

 

 

Buyers are the main culprits lah .... First of all, I am not a car salesman.....

 

ADs did not put a gun on the head of the buyers to "force" them to sign on the dotted line to buy the car.... Whether COE is $1, $1000, $10000, $100,000. Buyers have a choice. I am sure that all buyers knows what they are paying when they sign on the dotted line. AD's profit are also transparent ... Buyers have a very close estimate of the profits that ADs are getting .... Be it 1k, 10k, 100k ........ Buyers have a choice.

 

I agree with the point about separating COE and Cars Price ..... but this is a policy with the banks as well .... cannot put all the blame on ADs.

 

By the way, I dont work for any ADs as well. Just my 2 cents....

Edited March 28, 2013 by Wt_know

[Kar_lover]

First, it is the ADs who are controlling the COE prices that make COE up to this insane level.

If ADs are not allowed to bid, I doubt prices will reach this insane level. Who in the right mind would place such high bids beyond their financial means?

Based on a 10 year loan, cars are definitely affordable to many. It is the COE that makes prices artifically high (boost GDP???).

COEs will not drop overnight because if it drops drastically, ADs will have to fork out the COE rebates, which they have marked up. You think they want to cough out the difference?

 

By agreeing to the price (which includes the COE at the prevailing level), isn't the buyer already placing the bid? Just that not he physically clicking the buttons. But he did AGREE to the price, i.e. willing to pay the price of the COE at that time. If nobody buy the cars from the AD, the AD how to bid $70k for COE?

 

For your second part, AD's profit is already built into the price which includes COE. They don't need to bid high in order to "preserve" their profit. Usually the rebate level is a few thousand dollars below the current level so even if COE really drop they still make the EXTRA profit of that same few thousand (between prevailing COE and the COE rebate). They are not "coughing out" money from their margins. In fact they already ate up some additional margin from the drop in COE. Perhaps it is best illustrated by actual example.

 

Real life example (my friend):

Friend bought Golf 7 during launch. Was $137k net. At that time, the previous COE exercise was at around $80k (rebate was around $70k). At the next COE exercise VW straight put in a bid of $98k for him (this shows that VW had already factored in additional buffer of $18k of COE provision in their price). End up COE was $92k. Let's say COE had fallen to say $65k, wouldn't VW have made even more profit? COE had dropped total of $15k but they only return $5k to my friend and pocket the balance $10k and they still "earned" the $18k of COE provision that was *already built into the selling price* but not utilized so after contra off the $5k returned to my friend, they still pocket the additional $10k + $18k = $28k in total when COE had fallen to $65k instead of rising to $92k where they only pocket additional $6k from their COE provision.

 

Summarize:

 

Selling price $137k based on latest COE of $80k

COE bidded at $98k (additional provision of $18k for COE)

Price of car sold to my friend w/o COE = $137k - $98k COE = $39k (already got normal profit "$x" inside)

 

Scenario A: Final COE $92k (against provision of $98k)

Actual price of car sold to my friend w/o COE = $137k - $92k COE = $45k (normal profit $x + $6k extra from unutilised COE provision)

 

Scenario B: Final COE $65k (against provision of $98k)

Actual price of car sold to my friend w/o COE after returning the rebate = $137k - $5k rebate - $65k COE = $67k (normal profit $x + $28k extra profit from COE drop and unused COE provision)

 

AD earn much more under scenario B, no? So there is no reason for AD to deliberately push up COE. Besides, high COE is also bad for business as it kills consumer sentiment.

 

[Coolad]

Good! Got future!

 

I also wish COE needs to be paid in full cash and cannot be part of the loan.

Maybe my wish will come true, after all I was the one who also ask for 50% down and 5yrs loan in 2010.

 

2nd that... they shld hav shot the guy that intro the 10yr-loan/100% and removed the 7-year loan/30% limit. That was how the chaos was created.

 

 

[Kar_lover]

and coe is dealer most lethal profit margin.

coe up $10K, car price up $10K

coe down $10K, car price down $5K (you laugh already, may be down $2K nia)

 

The reason is because they know that when COE down this round, high possibility of increase demand next round and COE will "recover". So they cannot follow dollar to dollar decrease.

 

But after the new rules, when CAT A drop by $10k+, I noticed Cat A cars dropped by more than that, some as much as $20k. I think they know that the first exercise of $70k+ was the real COE level due to back log and they knew it would drop further (which it did yesterday).

 

[Kar_lover]

This coming Monday is another round of COE bidding...

 

 

Huh? I think its 2 weeks later lah. Should be Apr 8-10 then 22-24.

 

 

[Mcfguy]

All talk so cheem...but somehow, somewhere...some whatever...I just sense everything is interconnected....Car price, COE and bank loans....Ownself bid COE, must pay higher car price, Don't want take loan, must pay higher price or no rebate. Absurd, make carbuyer feel stupid.

[Hamburger]

bottom line....the system is flawed.

 

and why would liu admit it its not?? cash cow is the answer.