More COE Next Year (2014) .....

[Eaton]

 

 

I not smart but stupid.

 

I am waiting for the $10K COE.

you are smart. Not every one is rich when the coe at 60 or 70k.

One of my friends earning 3k plus brought a weekend car and the coe is 70k. I really don't understand y. I just congratulate him on his new car. He is just a normal worker and should save money for crisis.

Edited May 12, 2014 by Eaton

[Lotr]

Thats why should bet base on quarterly...the numbers of qouta are announced and wont change for this q, next q dont know what will happen....

Good point!

 

If the price is right, better go in. Never know what might happen next qtr.

 

That said, my gut feel is that 50% DP seems to be daunting for many, so more may be forced to switch to public transport after scrapping their cars.

 

Of course, there are also unknown factors which may alter policy like clawback, more buses and mrt lines, upcoming election ...

[Voodooman]

Extrapolation of current trend and data works only if rules of the game will not change. That's the biggest variable that no one can fully anticipate at this point, but my personal view is that the rules will definitely change so no point trying to do extrapolation.

I should have bought a car last year with 90k COE then, luckily I didn't. Of course you have to do some homework, the rule can change and you can make certain assumptions to be on the conservative side. I don't buy stocks and properties without taking into account possible regulatory changes, that does not mean that I should not look at the fundamentals. This COE thingy is like stock market these days, it is unlike buying a television.

 

Rule no 1, don't go in blind.

Edited May 12, 2014 by Voodooman

[Duckduck]

you are smart. Not every one is rich when the coe at 60 or 70k.

One of my friends earning 3k plus brought a weekend car and the coe is 70k. I really don't understand y. I just congratulate him on his new car. He is just a normal worker and should save money for crisis.

 

aiyoh some recent cornsiumer confidence leepork said singies are all v confident of our ekonomi lah, y scared just gear up wack everything in sight LOL

 

i mean, if a banker or lawyer loses job, theres always that cleaner or waiter job waiting for him mah as garmen tightening FT labour plus HDB after MOP free money everyone shiok shiok mah

 

Edited May 12, 2014 by Duckduck

[Yhn]

 

One of my friends earning 3k plus brought a weekend car and the coe is 70k. I really don't understand y. I just congratulate him on his new car. He is just a normal worker and should save money for crisis.

 

""You"re Only Young Once""

 

And I'll look for a boat when i come to the river of crisis.

 

[mdgg]

LTA has just released the Apr 14 scrapped rate:

 

Cat A Cat B

(average per month) (average per month)

 

Oct - Dec 13 787 736

Jan - Mar 14 1,148 1,054

Apr 14 1,347 1,068

 

If this trend continues, there will be additional 17.3% Cat A and 1.3% Cat B COE for the next COE quota review.

 

I contributed to the April 14 Cat A scrap number.

[mdgg]

you are smart. Not every one is rich when the coe at 60 or 70k.

One of my friends earning 3k plus brought a weekend car and the coe is 70k. I really don't understand y. I just congratulate him on his new car. He is just a normal worker and should save money for crisis.

He may be earning 3k per month, but what he didn't tell you is that he has a rich uncle that left him with an inheritance.

Let's fantasize abit, what will you do if you are an overnight millionaire? You will probably walk into a car show room teh next morning and slap the SE with cold hard cash. Wow, just the thought of it already makes me happy

[Tohto]

I contributed to the April 14 Cat A scrap number.

But did you get another new ride?

[mdgg]

But did you get another new ride?

I was quite stressed when my car was approaching 10 years. Went to a few show rooms and test drove a few Cat A models. I shortlisted 2, but due such high COE, I felt like a fool if I would to buy than. Moreover, my appetite now is for a car in Cat B. I tried to talk my wife into using public transport for the next 2 years, but as expected, to no avail. Anyway I couldn't convince myself either. So the better option was to get a preowned one. The next leading decision would be the age and type of car. I would think a 6 and 7 yr old car was ideal. I was prepared to dump in some money to overhawl the car to make it problem-free for the entire lifespan. If it was only left with 1 to 2 years, I would be in a dilemma. Next the type of car, a conti or Jap? The latter would definitely be my choice as the cost of ownership is lower especially the repair and maintenance cost. Last question would be which Jap car? I have been driving Cat A cars for the past 20 years and always wanted to own a 2.0L car. I scouted around and found that the delta between a good 1.6L jap car and a 2.0L is marginal. The delta is more significant for brand new ones. So just weeks ago, I scrapped my 10 yr old car and bought myself a 6 yrs old Honda Accord! I am happy wth the purchase. Best of all, freed myself from the stress of monitoring the COE prices every forthnightly, well, at least for the next 3 years.

[Achee]

There are 38k cars aged between 9 to 10 years old as at Apr 14 and 99k between 8 to 9 years old, does it means that there will be at least 8,250 car COE that will be recycled into the system in about 2 years time, that would mean an increase of at least 2-3 times Cat A COE soon (from current level). Anyone who has looked at those figures can comment?

The probability of more COEs in 1-2 years' time is much higher than lesser or same quantity of COEs as compared to current level (with or without claw back). Not that we can forecast the future but we are comparing the current quantity of COE which is at a very low base

[lausai88]

more coe does not equate to lower cost

more coe means more cars send to scrap yard and more people looking for a replacement

coe supply is higher but demand is also higher

[Blackyv]

more coe does not equate to lower cost

more coe means more cars send to scrap yard and more people looking for a replacement

coe supply is higher but demand is also higher

In coe context, more coe =lower coe price. How much higher the demand will determine the coe price movement this I agree..... But Don't forget not all who scrap their car is buying new car or can afford 40/50% dp. So assuming 100% of them going back to new coe demand is a flaw formula... So, naturally with more scrap coe back for bidding, price would drop.. Just a matter of drop how much....

[Achee]

more coe does not equate to lower cost

more coe means more cars send to scrap yard and more people looking for a replacement

coe supply is higher but demand is also higher

Though more quantity of COE may not necessarily translate into lower premium but low quantity of COE (like current level) will certainly translate into higher premium.

 

[Wolfverine]

A lot of theories here... Like many have said, COE market = property market = stock market = FX market =....

 

IF there is a true theory behind these markets, everyone will be rich

 

The only theory for such thing is as long as you are comfortable with the price, just go in and don't look back. Otherwise, you might be waiting forever and remember time waits for no one . You might end up paying the lowest COE and that will be great! Alternatively, you might end up not paying the lowest but that is great too because you get to enjoy the car that you always wanted now.

 

Like I say, time waits for no one ... carpe diem!

[Voodooman]

more coe does not equate to lower cost

more coe means more cars send to scrap yard and more people looking for a replacement

coe supply is higher but demand is also higher

During the peak COE years from 2005 to 2009, there were 80k COE per year for bidding and prices stayed low, when LTA cut COE quota to around 20k a year, prices shot up within a short period of time. Same for the previous cycle.

 

Granted our population has increased and income has risen, the jump in supply is going to be substantially more than prevailing demand for COE should COE prices stay at 80k a piece, so price should fall to attract new demand. It is economics 101.

 

Most drivers of nearing end of life cars would love to drive a new car but are either unable or unwilling to pay 80k for the COE, they are more likely to be found in used car lots than at Leng Kee.

Edited May 13, 2014 by Voodooman

[F355]

More COEs not only results in a lower COE premium ; it also meant that with more new cars put into the market , the distributors can afford to lower their profit margins per car.

 

For eg if Performance Motors overheads are $2m a month and they sell 50 cars, they need a profit margin of 40k per car to break even. If the COE quota is increased and they sell 100 cars, they only need to make 20k per car.

 

So when you see many fly by night Parrarel Importers start setting up business ; it is usually a good time to buy.

[Voodooman]

More COEs not only results in a lower COE premium ; it also meant that with more new cars put into the market , the distributors can afford to lower their profit margins per car.

 

For eg if Performance Motors overheads are $2m a month and they sell 50 cars, they need a profit margin of 40k per car to break even. If the COE quota is increased and they sell 100 cars, they only need to make 20k per car.

 

So when you see many fly by night Parrarel Importers start setting up business ; it is usually a good time to buy.

Yeah, good observation. Toyota's margin used to be 5-10k per car, it is economics of scale. Same fixed cost spread over a much larger volume.

 

ADs are hiring again.

[Duckduck]

as more pple scrap/trade in their cars now before their resale value drops further, this will add to the already bigger COE #s available, adding to the COE downward pressure as LTA has more n more COEs to recycle back.

 

I suspect M-A-S has something to do with this as well as transport n house price inflation is part of how they set S$.

Edited May 13, 2014 by Duckduck