2016 Jan, 1st COE Bidding Exercise

[Forte3737]

Guys interest rate is 2.78 now. Better do the sums of the drop in Coe does offset it.

May rise soon

[Red_ryder]

Hi guys,

 

I got 2 questions -

 

1. Nissan is offering additional $2000 discount for 2015 stock with open cat COE for immediate registration. I suspect Cat B COE may drop next round, so would it better for me not to get this promo and stick with the 6 bids package? The non-guaranteed bids COE Rebate level is $50,000 for Cat B. 

 

2. Last year I took out a claim on my NTUC insurance but there was NCD protection. So NCD still 50%. However, if I take the AD's inhouse finance and insurance, would I lose this NCD protection? 

[edwin15]

which can you accept more?

 

S1- Not buying now and COE moves up and eventually paying more or

S2-buying now and COE moves down and you could have gotten it lower?

 

From what i observe, most guys tend to complain in scenario 2 more than 1.

Most girls just move on after purchase.

 

This one easy;

 

S2. These people got their car liao so can still complain.

 

S1. Some people priced out and stopped looking at cars so too sianz to even complain liao.

 

   

 

My thoughts on this is that if you "need" a car and can afford at current price but is price sensitive such that if price go up, it moves out of your affordability, then you should buy now. In this case, the value of getting a better deal if prices drop is much less to you than being priced out if prices go up.

 

Just my 2 cents.

[Limwsv]

Guys interest rate is 2.78 now. Better do the sums of the drop in Coe does offset it.

 

Actually, each Fed hike and rise in our interest rate means better news, because COE will fall even faster as the number of people able/willing to pay at the price price level are reduced by the the interest rate increase.

 

So, instead of CAT A flattening out at about ~33K in two years time, the interest rate will drive the CAT A COE to ~28K, the same effect as the 50% DP which serves to limit demand.

[Runforyourlife]

Actually, each Fed hike and rise in our interest rate means better news, because COE will fall even faster as the number of people able/willing to pay at the price price level are reduced by the the interest rate increase.

 

So, instead of CAT A flattening out at about ~33K in two years time, the interest rate will drive the CAT A COE to ~28K, the same effect as the 50% DP which serves to limit demand.

Some peeps just ignore the int rate when they sign......:s

[Limwsv]

Hi guys,

 

I got 2 questions -

 

1. Nissan is offering additional $2000 discount for 2015 stock with open cat COE for immediate registration. I suspect Cat B COE may drop next round, so would it better for me not to get this promo and stick with the 6 bids package? The non-guaranteed bids COE Rebate level is $50,000 for Cat B. 

 

2. Last year I took out a claim on my NTUC insurance but there was NCD protection. So NCD still 50%. However, if I take the AD's inhouse finance and insurance, would I lose this NCD protection? 

 

1.  Depends on whether you are in the bear camp or bull camp.  Bulls are betting that next auction, COE will rise across the board due to the piquing of buyers by the huge fall the last auction.  Bears are betting on further falls.

 

Am in the bear camp but only the longer run, suspect that next auction will be like last CNY auctions when the previously locked out buyers suddenly flooded in as the price level drop to the next budget level.  

 

So, getting a 1 or 2 bid guarantee package is a no-brainer.  The risk is that you do not benefit from the falling COE (if fall) from the next 2 auctions.  Upside is that you are protected from rises.  More importantly, since you are in the  market, I am assuming your car is due for replacement within the next 2 - 4 months.  

 

So the risk becomes acceptable, at most further falls in COE will save you a couple of K's within the next 4 months.  However, a spike will need you to cough out another 3K - 5K to top up.  

 

Since the car is already in your budget, make the kill on the 1 to 2 bid package.

 

2. NCD is tied to you, not your insurance policy.  You only lose you NCD if you don't drive after a period of time, which depends on which provider.  Some insurer only allow a lapse of 1 year.

Some peeps just ignore the int rate when they sign......:s

 

 Agree, the household income band 80% - 100% do not care about interest and what nots.  When they want to buy, they will buy.

However, they only owned 250K of the COE and most of them have cash in a while back.  

 

The current demand is from the price sensitive 30% - 80& household income band.  They are sensitive to interest rate or everything that affects the household budget.

Edited January 10, 2016 by Limwsv

[edwin15]

HAHA, yeahh, alot of cars being scrapped this year and next year (2017), so coes will have to be back in the market.. :) I also think coe will continue going downtrend..hehe..

 

 

 

Hey long time no hear. Where have you been?

 

You are one of my COE indicators. When you quiet for long time, it mean no interest in car and I guess that is the general sentiment so COE should fall.

 

When you come in and start posting again, I see the strong interest coming in again and I think COE will go up next round.

 

    .

 

How? "xin dong" mah? 

[Fruit-tart]

Debated a lot of times by people who rarely go to showrooms?

 

showroom crowds dont affect coe prices, thats true.

 

But showroom crowd is the best on the ground pulse of coe price trend for the immediate bid

 

When SE swat mosquitoes, and If there is not even a single person testing a car over the weekend, then coe is unlikely to rise.

 

Those who have visited showroom during extreme crisis (2003 SARs, 2009 crisis) times will know

 

When showroom is so crowded that one has to queue a long time for a table to discuss price and negotiate goodies from SE, and when showroom has to extend opening hours, you know coe is very likely to go up during that round  

 

Those who visited showroom BM before cny bidding in early feb 15 will know

 

Hmmm, fair enough..  

[Fruit-tart]

Hey long time no hear. Where have you been?

 

You are one of my COE indicators. When you quiet for long time, it mean no interest in car and I guess that is the general sentiment so COE should fall.

 

When you come in and start posting again, I see the strong interest coming in again and I think COE will go up next round.

 

    .

 

How? "xin dong" mah? 

HAHAHA, where have I been? Aside from looking at coe prices (and waiting for it to drop further), I am doing other things in my life lahh..Why lehh? Miss me is it? LOL, tell u what, whenever u miss fruit-tart, probably u can go shopping malls bakery shps and buy some fruit-tart to admire...    HAHAHA, seems like u have been "stalking" me and my actions in this forum huh..! Yea, u are somehow right... Idk why when I active in forum, coe prices like seems to rise.. when I suddenly quiet, then coe fall.. maybe I should keep quiet, like that coe will continue downtrend? hahahah, of cuz not, thats not an accurate indicator..probably just coincidence bahh..

 

xindong? not yet when coe prices in 40k range...have a feeling if i wait abit more, can have chance drop further (then again, its my chouce to wait or not)... My interest in buying new car have never die off, so is analysing of coe prices..   u lehh? have u gotten ur coe bid and new car recently? so free analyse coe prices and "stalking" me? hahahahahaha!

Edited January 10, 2016 by Fruit-tart

[Red_ryder]

1.  Depends on whether you are in the bear camp or bull camp.  Bulls are betting that next auction, COE will rise across the board due to the piquing of buyers by the huge fall the last auction.  Bears are betting on further falls.

 

Am in the bear camp but only the longer run, suspect that next auction will be like last CNY auctions when the previously locked out buyers suddenly flooded in as the price level drop to the next budget level.  

 

So, getting a 1 or 2 bid guarantee package is a no-brainer.  The risk is that you do not benefit from the falling COE (if fall) from the next 2 auctions.  Upside is that you are protected from rises.  More importantly, since you are in the  market, I am assuming your car is due for replacement within the next 2 - 4 months.  

 

So the risk becomes acceptable, at most further falls in COE will save you a couple of K's within the next 4 months.  However, a spike will need you to cough out another 3K - 5K to top up.  

 

 

 

Hi, thanks for your reply. But I don't quite understand - I thought if COE spike up the dealer will make up the difference? Buyer is not the one who have to top up isn't it? 

 

So far that is my understanding from talking to ADs.

[edwin15]

HAHAHA, where have I been? Aside from looking at coe prices (and waiting for it to drop further), I am doing other things in my life lahh..Why lehh? Miss me is it? LOL, tell u what, whenever u miss fruit-tart, probably u can go shopping malls bakery shps and buy some fruit-tart to admire...    HAHAHA, seems like u have been "stalking" me and my actions in this forum huh..! Yea, u are somehow right... Idk why when I active in forum, coe prices like seems to rise.. when I suddenly quiet, then coe fall.. maybe I should keep quiet, like that coe will continue downtrend? hahahah, of cuz not, thats not an accurate indicator..probably just coincidence bahh..

 

xindong? not yet when coe prices in 40k range...have a feeling if i wait abit more, can have chance drop further (then again, its my chouce to wait or not)... My interest in buying new car have never die off, so is analysing of coe prices..   u lehh? have u gotten ur coe bid and new car recently? so free analyse coe prices and "stalking" me? hahahahahaha!

 

No lah. No new ride yet. Still waiting but more and more itchy..........

 

You will know I got my ride liao when I suddenly vanish from this forum. Haha.

 

Btw: bakery mall got so many different types of fruit tarts. Which type should I be looking for? 

[Fruit-tart]

No lah. No new ride yet. Still waiting but more and more itchy..........

 

You will know I got my ride liao when I suddenly vanish from this forum. Haha.

 

Btw: bakery mall got so many different types of fruit tarts. Which type should I be looking for? 

Wahh, same here, I am getting more itchy, but when I calm down and think carefully, I see some potential in coe prices dropping further, so same as u, i am sitting at the sideline first..  u leh?? u waiting till coe drop to what level then buy? Wahh, suddenly vanish in this forum ahh, like that one less person to "stalk" me = one less admirer liao...  hahaha, joking joking!

 

 

Look for a fruit-tart which u look and taste nice lah.. got strawberry tarts, kiwi tarts, peach tarts etc.. slowly choose lor..

 

Btw: this will be me giggling (  ), if u really think that u can find me at a B.A.K.E.R.Y.... LOL!

Edited January 10, 2016 by Fruit-tart

[keanie]

Same for me.

I enjoy driving and had no problem on the heavy traffic.

But I will felt stressful need to squeeze in MRT or the stupid bus always not on time..

Same for me. Actually, I don't really need a car but I want one cos can't tahan d stress of sardine n uncertain travelling times. Until it reaches HK standard or at least 85% of it, then I will consider to switch.

Talking about breakdown, last evening indeed d MRT broke down at d NSL between Kranji to Admirality. Unless, I like walk on MRT tracks, then I switch too. Haha

[Chrispie]

Hi guys,

 

I got 2 questions -

 

1. Nissan is offering additional $2000 discount for 2015 stock with open cat COE for immediate registration. I suspect Cat B COE may drop next round, so would it better for me not to get this promo and stick with the 6 bids package? The non-guaranteed bids COE Rebate level is $50,000 for Cat B.

 

2. Last year I took out a claim on my NTUC insurance but there was NCD protection. So NCD still 50%. However, if I take the AD's inhouse finance and insurance, would I lose this NCD protection?

For qns 2, the ncd protector is honoured by the same insurer. If u change insurer after having a claim with ntuc, the new insurer will not honour the 50% unless u have less than 20% liability on that accident.

[Friendstar]

Guys interest rate is 2.78 now. Better do the sums of the drop in Coe does offset it.

So the plan is. Save up more cash so that u can down more.

 

Unless u r buying a really expensive car. Else a normal jap car price should fall sufficiently to be comfortably affordable even with a high interest. Thats my feel

[Imac]

Below is the new list price(from Sat ST) for budget BnB car after the 9k drop.

 

Nissan :

Sylphy - $95,988

Note - $81,988

 

Hyundai:

Elantra - $80,999

Accent - $78,999

 

K3 - $85,999

 

Mit Attrage - $79,999

 

Mazda 3 - $94,888

 

Honda Jazz - $95,999

 

Let see how the market react.

Just to add-on, PI quoted to my friend for Honda Vezel:

 

Honda Vezel - $89,999 (8 bids non-guranteed)

Top up $10,000 for guranteeed COE. Rebate at $35k.

[edwin15]

 

 

Look for a fruit-tart which u look and taste nice lah.. got strawberry tarts, kiwi tarts, peach tarts etc.. slowly choose lor..

 

 

 

 

Which one are u?

 

strawberry, kiwi, peach, or........?

 

 

[Runforyourlife]

For 35k limit, means must get the car within 6 bids, also indirectly mean there will be a period of 35-37k Coe happening in 3 mths time.