2016 Recession Year? Gloom and doom 2017!

[Scion]

HK GDP shrinks in 2016 1Q....

 

not looking good people

 

 

 

Hong Kong's economy contracted in the latest quarter as the weak global economy and poor local conditions weighed on the southern Chinese business hub.

 

Gross domestic product contracted a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent in the January-March period compared with the previous quarter, according to official data released Friday.

 

Sluggish demand from advanced economies for Asian exports crimped global trade flows while volatile financial markets and uncertainty over central bank policies added to pessimism, the government said.

 

Falling retail sales, tourist visits and property prices took their toll on local sentiment.

 

"Global economic growth is likely to remain modest in the near term, with risks still tilted towards the downside," government economist Andrew Au said. "The trading environment for Hong Kong's exports, as well as those of other Asian economies, will remain rather difficult in the coming months."

 

The former British colony's economy grew 0.8 percent when compared with the year-ago period, slower than the 1.9 percent growth in the previous period.

 

Officials left unchanged their forecast that Hong Kong's economy would grow 1-2 percent in 2016.

 

Hong Kong's economy has flourished thanks to open financial markets and its role as a trading hub for exports from China but that openness also leaves the specially administered Chinese region vulnerable to swings in global trade.

[Sabian]

We shrink, HK sure shrink. Vice versa too.

 

We are both very plugged into the global economy.

[Duckduck]

If you can borrow enough scrips and if the borrowing costs do not accumulate faster than the price decline.

 

use CFD to short lah cheap n good. contra is old school

Have you ever bought from redmart or not?

 

Not cheap leh.

 

The problem with online grocery shopping in SG is that people without maids have no one to collect the goods for us and postmen cannot just leave the stuff outside our HDB. The new singpost (and govt sanctioned) postboxes might solve that soon tho.

 

yup theyre not cheap compared 2 qoo10, sheng siong or minimarts

[Voodooman]

HK in free fall? Ang moh don't know TCSS or is this real?

 

Truth is probably somewhere in between but luckily I de-leveraged liow.

 

Hong Kong Property Market in 'Free Fall': Hayman's Bass

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-11/hayman-s-bass-says-hong-kong-property-market-is-in-free-fall

[Showster]

This analyst is amassing funds to bet against the real estate in HK. What do you think?

 

 

HK in free fall? Ang moh don't know TCSS or is this real?

Truth is probably somewhere in between but luckily I de-leveraged liow.

Hong Kong Property Market in 'Free Fall': Hayman's Bass

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-11/hayman-s-bass-says-hong-kong-property-market-is-in-free-fall

 

[Angcheek]

All i know is hk gov is cutting spending quite alot this yr

[Porker]

HK in free fall? Ang moh don't know TCSS or is this real?

 

Truth is probably somewhere in between but luckily I de-leveraged liow.

 

Hong Kong Property Market in 'Free Fall': Hayman's Bass

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-11/hayman-s-bass-says-hong-kong-property-market-is-in-free-fall

 

Many times the hedge fund managers sprout "news" hoping it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy in favor of their positions. I don't think HK real estate is in free fall. It may correct in response to global market movement.

Edited May 14, 2016 by Porker

[Victor68]

Retail biz in Singapore is deep trouble for simple reasons. We repeated malls everywhere selling same things. Why bother to visit malls if you have just one downstairs?

 

Walk into a mall, 70% is food. So you eat 12 hours a day? What happen to those hours that are non meal time? Mall is virtually empty. So you build this great building to serve a few hours a day? Building owner thus charge very high rent to recover cost. Rent is then passed to consumers. Squeeze till you dry.

 

When government release land, they only look at how to generate best price. Did they ever consider other factors? Time to relook at our master plan. Do we really need so many hotels, condo and retail?

[Angcheek]

HK in free fall? Ang moh don't know TCSS or is this real?

 

Truth is probably somewhere in between but luckily I de-leveraged liow.

 

Hong Kong Property Market in 'Free Fall': Hayman's Bass

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-11/hayman-s-bass-says-hong-kong-property-market-is-in-free-fall

Bro , you heard any news china curbing property investments into hk ?

[Porker]

Retail biz in Singapore is deep trouble for simple reasons. We repeated malls everywhere selling same things. Why bother to visit malls if you have just one downstairs?

 

Walk into a mall, 70% is food. So you eat 12 hours a day? What happen to those hours that are non meal time? Mall is virtually empty. So you build this great building to serve a few hours a day? Building owner thus charge very high rent to recover cost. Rent is then passed to consumers. Squeeze till you dry.

 

When government release land, they only look at how to generate best price. Did they ever consider other factors? Time to relook at our master plan. Do we really need so many hotels, condo and retail?

 

You might have got it wrong. The malls are filled with F&B outlets because the land price, and consequently rent, is too high which mean most retail businesses cannot sustain.

[Ktglfc]

Just my observations from my recent tour to Hokkaido ...

 

Where got recession?!

I have seen so many Singaporean tourists buying lots of goodies while on tour, buying branded goods such as Coach, etc at the outlets in Sapporo ...

They could easily have spent abt $3k buying these stuff excluding the tour fare they paid ...

 

Ppl do have money ... and tours are always almost fully booked ....

So, at this moment, still no recession lah ...

[Angcheek]

Just my observations from my recent tour to Hokkaido ...

 

Where got recession?!

I have seen so many Singaporean tourists buying lots of goodies while on tour, buying branded goods such as Coach, etc at the outlets in Sapporo ...

They could easily have spent abt $3k buying these stuff excluding the tour fare they paid ...

 

Ppl do have money ... and tours are always almost fully booked ....

So, at this moment, still no recession lah ...

How many u bought

[Duckduck]

$8.62. bearish below.

 

$9.49 bullish above.

 

directionless in between

 

ocbc broke below my 8.62 bear support n now at 8.32. Traders wldve shorted when it went below 8.62 for a quick buck.

 

Now its in no mans land. Long term ok, short term no view. If it doesnt recover back 8.62 soon, short term may hit 7.70

out on a limb: short AUDUSD target 0.739

 

AUDUSD now 0.729. 

Edited May 16, 2016 by Duckduck

[Angcheek]

ocbc broke below my 8.62 bear support n now at 8.32. Traders wldve shorted when it went below 8.62 for a quick buck.

 

Now its in no mans land. Long term ok, short term no view. If it doesnt recover back 8.62 soon, short term may hit 7.70

 

 

AUDUSD now 0.729.

Thanks bro

Ok lets aim 7.70 kekeke quick sell all ur ocbc !

[Ktglfc]

Thanks bro

Ok lets aim 7.70 kekeke quick sell all ur ocbc !

[Duckduck]

Thanks bro

Ok lets aim 7.70 kekeke quick sell all ur ocbc !

[Kusje]

You might have got it wrong. The malls are filled with F&B outlets because the land price, and consequently rent, is too high which mean most retail businesses cannot sustain.

 

I feel you have it upside down leh.

 

Previously the malls were having high occupancy so they can charge high rentals and push land prices high. Right now, occupancy rate is falling so rental/land price gotta come down soon for retail businesses to be viable.

[Angcheek]

i dont own any ocbc shares lol

 

btw im short JPM FWIW

 

wow u very zhun ... ! I also heard same news about JPM . But not sure how much it will drop.