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The Perfect Storm of the Stock Market II

RadX

By RadX,
in Investment & Financial Matters

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Lala81

Lala81

Hypersonic
19 minutes ago, Albeniz said:

Your dad is very handsome.

Ha he's not. It's just the glasses. Hair etc. Very 1980s. 

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Cauldron

Cauldron

6th Gear

I think the market has priced in all the bad news already. Every little piece of good news will trigger a rally, oil skirmish over (Shale will not be defeated), CDC fast track some remedy or concerted relief package with a few allies.  

This is the cross road, if numbers from China are true, Corvid is already contained there and waiting for warmer weather to finish the job. Asia has taken the brunt of covid fight and demonstrated a few models of defeating the spread. The damage from Corvid is from the disruption of economic activities, which is recoverable, mortality is not high enough to create permanent damage to the fundamental.

Think the only long term damage is if fed drop rate again. What is the impact to the world's organ on a sustained steroid rush? When NIM goes south, will banks again take more risk and create a novel class of asset bubble  

 

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Victor68

Victor68

Turbocharged

Storm about to ease for fine weather or more stormy on the way? Guru here please share if this is about the right time to enter after today dust settled down? WHO pandemic news need some reactions right?

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TangoCharlie

TangoCharlie

Supersonic
(edited)
25 minutes ago, Cauldron said:

Good read

https://www.theancientbabylonians.com/which-singapore-bank-stock-to-buy-dbs-ocbc-uob/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=which-singapore-bank-stock-to-buy-dbs-ocbc-uob

His first stock?😅

Must say he did his homework. (Edit: but I don't follow how he reach his conclusion)

Good luck🤞

Edited by TangoCharlie
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Sdf4786k

Sdf4786k

Twincharged
3 hours ago, Cauldron said:

I think the market has priced in all the bad news already. Every little piece of good news will trigger a rally, oil skirmish over (Shale will not be defeated), CDC fast track some remedy or concerted relief package with a few allies.  

This is the cross road, if numbers from China are true, Corvid is already contained there and waiting for warmer weather to finish the job. Asia has taken the brunt of covid fight and demonstrated a few models of defeating the spread. The damage from Corvid is from the disruption of economic activities, which is recoverable, mortality is not high enough to create permanent damage to the fundamental.

Think the only long term damage is if fed drop rate again. What is the impact to the world's organ on a sustained steroid rush? When NIM goes south, will banks again take more risk and create a novel class of asset bubble  

 

I would also like to think so. But stock prices like DBS at 21.01 says otherwise.

 

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Ckll

Ckll

Supercharged

Got this in my whatsapp today ..  just sharing. Forwarded by my broker on Li G.S. analysis ..

from Li Guang Sheng 12/3/2020:
Ever since FED cut 50 basis point suddenly, funds have been dumping banks non-stop. When Bank of England cut rate on 11/3/2020, banks sold off even more furiously as rate cut is never a good thing for banks as they have many outstanding loans that are on floating rate, and this will have a major impact on their earnings going forward.
In my opinion this is a double whammy on banks because economy is already very bad, non-performing loans will surely increase from their existing loan as many companies cannot make enough to pay off their loans, so how can interest rate decrease while risk goes higher. Banks are in a very precarious situation now.

It is almost a certainty that this COVID-19 virus will last at least until June, as WHO declare it as global pandemic, which results in Dow and global financial crashing. I do expect Singapore to go into a recession, while seeing bad debts from banks spiking. On the other hand demand or approval for new loans are likely to go down. 

FED decision to cut rate drastically and fast, with negative interest rate being explore, is a frightening possibility, which result in funds dumping banks worldwide. I have spoken with many funds and the reason why they are selling is due to the fact that banks’ net interest margin, the profit that they make by lending the money they had borrowed from depositors, is likely to go down. Hence prior record profits by banks mean nothing to the funds now to entice them to hold banks shares. 

For retails, many are rushing to buy banks shares as they see it cheap hence buy to collect dividend should it go down further. Is true it looks cheap, but fundamental do change too. If profit comes down so will the dividend and the share price spiral down too going forward.

One thing to share is there are people who are waiting for this crisis to buy shares especially, and the cue is when the price to book value fall below 1, and everyone is fearful to buy, then the shares will rebound. Usually, from past experience they do see 20-30% upside from the bottom. Is hard to know where is the bottom, but at such prices, long run should be ok.

When we are catching falling knife, do always remember, you most likely will hurt yourself as most are inexperience to catch it and most will catch the sharp part. Minority who are skillful can catch the blade. So do not envy those who finally manage to catch the bottom, depend a lot on luck. As long as you buy to keep, just wait for market to rebound.

My view is next week 16/3/2020 may see rebound as I believe Trump and global central banks may work something out over the weekend. I am just guessing. If not, there is still more room for banks to fall. 

This article is just for education purpose sharing. Above sharing is based on my own analysis and is not to induce people to buy. Investment during a crash involves high risk as no one know where is bottom. Do seek your own financial advisor or broker for more advise. Please do your own due diligence prior to investing.

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Wt_know

Wt_know

Supersonic
(edited)

please kee chiu ... lol

Quote

When we are catching falling knife, do always remember, you most likely will hurt yourself as most are inexperience to catch it and most will catch the sharp part. Minority who are skillful can catch the blade. So do not envy those who finally manage to catch the bottom, depend a lot on luck. As long as you buy to keep, just wait for market to rebound.

Edited by Wt_know
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mersaylee

mersaylee

Supersonic
47 minutes ago, TangoCharlie said:

His first stock?😅

Must say he did his homework. (Edit: but I don't follow how he reach his conclusion)

Good luck🤞

First as in his first bullet in any stock during this current downturn 

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Wt_know

Wt_know

Supersonic
(edited)
3 minutes ago, Lala81 said:

ang ang...

only guru, master and sifu can catch the handle

majority will catch the blade [sweatdrop] 

6C5AF75F-3290-4D04-AA82-EBCDE14F892B.jpeg

Edited by Wt_know
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Sdf4786k

Sdf4786k

Twincharged
1 minute ago, Wt_know said:

only guru, master and sifu can catch the handle

majority will catch the blade [sweatdrop] 

6C5AF75F-3290-4D04-AA82-EBCDE14F892B.jpeg

yeah.. and to think 21.01 was a good bargain yesterday for DBS ..

today is 20.52-0.49 (-2.33%)

As of 12 March 9:08AM SGT. Market open.

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Enye

Enye

Hypersonic

wah....think those cash burning tech firms imminent collapse coming

where to find funding when $ runs out?

😬😅

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