How low will COE go?

[Chucky2007]

Something is wrong with COE quota calculation. I think LTA use special calculator which none of us has.

 

From new paper

Year COE

2001 67,158

2002 62,960

2003 81,259

2004 96,861

2005 109,376

2006 117,062

2007 106,710

2008 97.348

2009 68,862

2010 42,002

2011 28,270

2012 25,742 - up to Nov 2012

 

8 years ago, it was 100,000 and now it is around 27,000 and still dropping. As long as supply is low and demand is high, how low can the COE price go? The message is simple. No money, no car. Take public transport. How come COE quota movement is so drastic? I wonder whether LTA releases the calculation method. I am puzzled why the numbers can drop so drastically and we still on a car growth strategy.

You didn't notice from 2002-2005 there is a total of 250000 total CoE released, also meaning that in 2012-2015 there are 250000 expiring? If LTA don't reduce the Coe from 2010-2013 drastically, how much do you think Coe would have cost now? $5k? 10k?, 15k?

[Alheych]

You didn't notice from 2002-2005 there is a total of 250000 total CoE released, also meaning that in 2012-2015 there are 250000 expiring? If LTA don't reduce the Coe from 2010-2013 drastically, how much do you think Coe would have cost now? $5k? 10k?, 15k?

 

This is why I don't think COE prices will fall by a lot. Lui Tuck Yew has said that the quota available for every 6 months should be more regular to avoid bumper crops. This means that for the 250,000 deregistered, there won't be 250,000 replacements, at least not immediately. Since demand > supply, price goes up.

Edited March 11, 2013 by Alheych

[Kenopt2]

From LTA website

 

NON-TRANSFERABLE CATEGORIES:

 

Category A : Cars (1,600cc and below) 336

 

Category B : Cars (1,601cc and above) 326

 

Category D : Motorcycles 510

 

TRANSFERABLE CATEGORIES:

 

Category C : Goods Vehicles and Buses 225

 

Category E : Open Category 255

 

The COE available is so small. How much reduction can one expect?

 

By looking at the COE a year is not reflective of the actual since a significant group of people replaces their 3-5 years old car during the low COE period. Hopefully someone can advise how people conclude that 2013 to 2014 there will be a hugh COE coming.

[Wt_know]

coe is a free market is the biggest joke

 

You didn't notice from 2002-2005 there is a total of 250000 total CoE released, also meaning that in 2012-2015 there are 250000 expiring? If LTA don't reduce the Coe from 2010-2013 drastically, how much do you think Coe would have cost now? $5k? 10k?, 15k?

Edited March 11, 2013 by Wt_know

[Wt_know]

25k+ coe for 1 year .... how on earth coe can drop

even MAS insist 100% pay cash there is more than 25k+ richies in singapore to gallop all the coes in 1 year

 

Something is wrong with COE quota calculation. I think LTA use special calculator which none of us has.

 

 

From new paper

Year COE

2001 67,158

2002 62,960

2003 81,259

2004 96,861

2005 109,376

2006 117,062

2007 106,710

2008 97.348

2009 68,862

2010 42,002

2011 28,270

2012 25,742 - up to Nov 2012

 

8 years ago, it was 100,000 and now it is around 27,000 and still dropping. As long as supply is low and demand is high, how low can the COE price go? The message is simple. No money, no car. Take public transport. How come COE quota movement is so drastic? I wonder whether LTA releases the calculation method. I am puzzled why the numbers can drop so drastically and we still on a car growth strategy.

Edited March 11, 2013 by Wt_know

[Airconlin]

For something to be "against the law" there must first be a law against it. From what i know there is no law that says dealers cannot bid COE.

 

And you're wrong to say dealers don't sell car without COE. They do. But most buyers don't have time to sit in front of computer screen to bid COE. And it is also not true that the big dealers all wait until towards the end of the exercise to put their bids. I know for a fact (cos i help my frens monitor their COEs being bidded by their ADs) that the ADs put in their bid early. They put a bid that they more or less know will not be exceeded (they sell so many cars where got time to one by one increase bid $1 at a time?). 2 recent examples, my fren bought golf 7 during launch, VW put in straight $90k++ (can't remember exact figure) at around 2.30pm. And another colleague bought a new 316i, PML also put in $90k++ bid at around 3pm. Those last minute ones more likely are smaller dealers - they have time to monitor market. The big dealers put high figure knowing that in the end they will pay the lowest qualifying price.

 

 

Please read this Straits Time report:

 

http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/...t-much-20130305

 

Another reader asked why car dealers could not separate the price of a car from the COE premium, and noted that some do not refund the difference between the price stated in a contract and actual COE cost.

 

Mr Tan said that from a business planning perspective, packaging COEs with cars allows dealers to plan for their stock.

[Aventador]

I also hope it will last at least till 2016 or longer...... But shanmugan(I think) has said the 50% measures is 'not permanent'.

 

 

Although all Indians have dark skin... These 2 do look quite different

[Kenopt2]

There are 2.3 millions voters.

Maybe 0.7 millions vehicles on the road.

So a possible of 1.6 millions potential car owners chasing after Cat A 336 small cars, Cat B 326 big cars and Open Cat 225 cars on this 1st round COE bidding.

 

Better to look for 2nd hand car than chasing after a new car where only the rich can afford. All Ministers and MPs drives. Wonder whether they really know the problems heartlanders are facing. I also wonder why the Minister of transport stop taking Mrt after the first few time? Maybe cannot take it anymore or afraid to seen after making the situation worse since he took over....

[Chucky2007]

This is why I don't think COE prices will fall by a lot. Lui Tuck Yew has said that the quota available for every 6 months should be more regular to avoid bumper crops. This means that for the 250,000 deregistered, there won't be 250,000 replacements, at least not immediately. Since demand > supply, price goes up.

Well.. Whatever the case it may be, it seems like the road in Singapore woulddnt be more congested than it is now. So it's great news!

[Sdxx]

No money don't buy car or buy 2nd hand car lor. Cannot be I can't afford I also don't want other to have. By the way how do you know all ministers and mps drive car? Even if it is so are you saying because they all drive cars therefore deprive heartlander of owning one? Please lah, there are so many people richer than ministers and mps inbox Singapore lah.

[Wt_know]

expressway is being upsize now ....

PIE & BKE will get extra 2-3 lanes, centre divider trees all kena chopped liao

extra exit for PIE>BKE, more lanes to Eng Neo and Lornie exit too ... these are the normal bottleneck

the other one is Steven road ... don't know how to solve this one

Edited March 11, 2013 by Wt_know

[Ungtiong]

roads not so crowded yet lar. If so why are so many business and shopping center dying? Its crowded because

 

1) someone ALWAYS crash and decide to leave the car there for police to come. Seriously we need to look into this procedure. I know the best way to properly access is to leave the scene alone and wait but this is causing a serious issue which can be easily solved (as opposed to reducing the car population or even reduce the human population). if got car crash (no fatalities), get it towed ASAP!!!! or if minor crash and the car can move, get it off the road ASAP!!!! if not deduct points and summon fine. Gov must implement something about the insurance procedure, maybe even make it mandatory for all cars to have DVR.

 

2) the roads are OK, its the exit lanes that are jammed. Take PIE to CTE entry, that is one of the worst road planning i have ever seen. CTE and PIE can be free flowing traffic but the lanes are jammed. There are many similar designs, especially when its the only exit for the town. Lane widening vs more exit lanes? i think more exit lanes will be a more viable option. After all, the roads are jammed because the exit lanes are jammed and we are trying to solve the effect instead of the cause.

 

The road can be 10 lane wide but if your exit is 1 lane, you are as good as your smallest lane (like exhaust and air intake)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Dark]

roads not so crowded yet lar. If so why are so many business and shopping center dying? Its crowded because

 

1) someone ALWAYS crash and decide to leave the car there for police to come. Seriously we need to look into this procedure. I know the best way to properly access is to leave the scene alone and wait but this is causing a serious issue which can be easily solved (as opposed to reducing the car population or even reduce the human population). if got car crash (no fatalities), get it towed ASAP!!!! or if minor crash and the car can move, get it off the road ASAP!!!! if not deduct points and summon fine. Gov must implement something about the insurance procedure, maybe even make it mandatory for all cars to have DVR.

 

2) the roads are OK, its the exit lanes that are jammed. Take PIE to CTE entry, that is one of the worst road planning i have ever seen. CTE and PIE can be free flowing traffic but the lanes are jammed. There are many similar designs, especially when its the only exit for the town. Lane widening vs more exit lanes? i think more exit lanes will be a more viable option. After all, the roads are jammed because the exit lanes are jammed and we are trying to solve the effect instead of the cause.

 

The road can be 10 lane wide but if your exit is 1 lane, you are as good as your smallest lane (like exhaust and air intake)

 

Good points.

 

1) Maybe there should be a fine for causing obstruction including breakdowns and minor accidents. Fine double during peak hours!

 

2) Dunno why always must merge into 1 lane even though slip road has 2 lanes, to me that is the bottleneck!

[Pisces69]

Haha.. then good for them.

 

Borneo motor sales person says their customers all very prudent people and take little loan and they will not be affected.. but the facial expression on the sales person face tells me he is actually very worried...

 

 

U try to see what he eat at lunch.

 

If good expensive meal...then biz good. If just homemade sandwich or skip lunch...then biz is bad.

[Pisces69]

Something is wrong with COE quota calculation. I think LTA use special calculator which none of us has.

 

From new paper

Year COE

2001 67,158

2002 62,960

2003 81,259

2004 96,861

2005 109,376

2006 117,062

2007 106,710

2008 97.348

2009 68,862

2010 42,002

2011 28,270

2012 25,742 - up to Nov 2012

 

8 years ago, it was 100,000 and now it is around 27,000 and still dropping. As long as supply is low and demand is high, how low can the COE price go? The message is simple. No money, no car. Take public transport. How come COE quota movement is so drastic? I wonder whether LTA releases the calculation method. I am puzzled why the numbers can drop so drastically and we still on a car growth strategy.

 

Their calculation likely if ty wan coe price to go up or down.

 

Wan coe up....cut quota. Wan coe down...increase quota.

 

This is not a fair market bidding system. Gharmen still controlling coe price by adjusting e quota.

 

Another con job by our belovered gharmen.

 

[Pisces69]

No money don't buy car or buy 2nd hand car lor. Cannot be I can't afford I also don't want other to have. By the way how do you know all ministers and mps drive car? Even if it is so are you saying because they all drive cars therefore deprive heartlander of owning one? Please lah, there are so many people richer than ministers and mps inbox Singapore lah.

 

 

Aiyah all ministers n mps do drive lah.

 

My place can see mp come ty reserve parking lot. After awhile can see their Jaguar n BMW park there.

 

Ty earn so much u tell me ty dun own car. Please lah.

 

Most if not all wil stay landed property after becoming mp n minister. And not simple house hor. Wil b big bungalow.

Edited March 12, 2013 by Pisces69

[Pisces69]

There are 2.3 millions voters.

Maybe 0.7 millions vehicles on the road.

So a possible of 1.6 millions potential car owners chasing after Cat A 336 small cars, Cat B 326 big cars and Open Cat 225 cars on this 1st round COE bidding.

 

Better to look for 2nd hand car than chasing after a new car where only the rich can afford. All Ministers and MPs drives. Wonder whether they really know the problems heartlanders are facing. I also wonder why the Minister of transport stop taking Mrt after the first few time? Maybe cannot take it anymore or afraid to seen after making the situation worse since he took over....

 

He stop taking mrt cos he cannot tahan e squeezing pushing n waiting. Always reach work late sweaty n grumpy.

 

But at least he made a show if it. Make sure newspapers all got a nice picture of him taking public transport. Hahaha.

 

All good at wayang. Trained at Hollywood n Bollywood.

[RoadTricks]

He stop taking mrt cos he cannot tahan e squeezing pushing n waiting. Always reach work late sweaty n grumpy.

 

But at least he made a show if it. Make sure newspapers all got a nice picture of him taking public transport. Hahaha.

 

All good at wayang. Trained at Hollywood n Bollywood.

not forgetting those 'Chinawood' movies where a single punch from an exponent always sends a rival flying through brick walls, displaced a rival a 100m away ... hahaha!