More COE Next Year (2014) .....

[Powxus]

 

 

Bro, you are spot on for the "Spiral effect". More and more of the high COEs will scrap prematurely to reclaim their high costs.

 

Hope to see this avalanche of COEs starting by end of this year!

 

 

Not everyone can scrap their high COE car at a loss and pay the bank the additional loan penalty and interest

[Sdexxxxd]

Think for those who really need a car but cannot afford the 50% on new ones, the 2nd hand car will be more of those that are 4 or more years old such that the 40% downpayment will be relatively more affordable?

 

Eg.

Brand new Jetta is ~ 120k; 50% down is 60k

2010 Jetta ~ 78k (sgcarmart); 40% down is ~ 30k

 

 

 

 

The 50% DP is a killer and will deter many potential buyers from getting in to the new cars

 

Unless those car finance institutions are willing to extend their 100% lease programs to more people. But then, are they as stable as those banks?

[Xers007]

yesterday overheard a korean brand SE says, they offer such low price cos they anticipate the COE will drop further..

[Achee]

Basing on what I have seen @ the various showrooms over this weekend before COE bidding, my gut feel is that COE for Cat B will drop marginally to mid/high $60k.

 

That is my guess only and based on the crowd size at the 3 showrooms I visited - Kah, VW and PML.

 

Good luck to all bidding this coming round and also to those patiently waiting!

 

 

 

Wow, you have that crystal ball?

[Lotr]

Seems like prices have dropped based on newspaper ads ... Does it portend that Coe premiums will be dropping.? Only time will tell

 

But if really drops, does it ADs is manipulating the market.? Hmmm ...

 

LTA should really ban ADs from bidding to prove that it is really a free market

[Bigtoothpick]

Let me throw in another factor to consider.

During low price COE days, there were significant number of off peak cars registered. In 2005, there was a net increase of about 7,000 OPCs over previous year. In 2006 - 12,000 increase, in 2007 and 2008, about 9,000 additional OPCs per year. These are NET figures, actual new registrations would be higher as some OPC deregistration would have occurred.

 

Now, would these OPCs being taken off in the next few years come back still as OPCs at COE of say $40k? Remember the COE then was around $10k plus or less. That group of buyers (whether first owner or not) will not be in the market for new OPC today. If so, then the pool of replacement COEs for normal cars will be boosted further.

 

It seems to me that COE price fall is inevitable.

[Blackyv]

Let me throw in another factor to consider.

During low price COE days, there were significant number of off peak cars registered. In 2005, there was a net increase of about 7,000 OPCs over previous year. In 2006 - 12,000 increase, in 2007 and 2008, about 9,000 additional OPCs per year. These are NET figures, actual new registrations would be higher as some OPC deregistration would have occurred.

 

Now, would these OPCs being taken off in the next few years come back still as OPCs at COE of say $40k? Remember the COE then was around $10k plus or less. That group of buyers (whether first owner or not) will not be in the market for new OPC today. If so, then the pool of replacement COEs for normal cars will be boosted further.

 

It seems to me that COE price fall is inevitable.

Bro, don't need that data and everyone know coe will fall.. The key is fall to what level before stabilizing and when?? That's everyone guess... Don't forget the one in power who set the rules can come out one rule every quarter to stir up whatever expectation one has...

So, its all back to square one in the end and what one want to catch is the ideal sweet spot one can accept... 60k? 50k? 40k? 30k? 20k? Or even 10k?.... One decide for themselves which one to bite...

[Sdexxxxd]

Let me throw in another factor to consider.

During low price COE days, there were significant number of off peak cars registered. In 2005, there was a net increase of about 7,000 OPCs over previous year. In 2006 - 12,000 increase, in 2007 and 2008, about 9,000 additional OPCs per year. These are NET figures, actual new registrations would be higher as some OPC deregistration would have occurred.

 

Now, would these OPCs being taken off in the next few years come back still as OPCs at COE of say $40k? Remember the COE then was around $10k plus or less. That group of buyers (whether first owner or not) will not be in the market for new OPC today. If so, then the pool of replacement COEs for normal cars will be boosted further.

 

It seems to me that COE price fall is inevitable.

 

Yes its inevitable. But somehow the dealers are trying to paint a different scenario and saying it wont drop sooner. Lets wait and see how the market reacts the next few rounds. Moving into Y2015 will be very interesting.

[Bigtoothpick]

In fact, in 2013 there were 42,233 OPCs in total. Guess how big a proportion of that was from 2005 to 2009 period?

 

My guess- possibly 90% conservatively speaking. That's about 38,000 OPCs. Spread that over 5 years, that's an average of 7,600 per year.

[Bigtoothpick]

Bro, don't need that data and everyone know coe will fall.. The key is fall to what level before stabilizing and when?? That's everyone guess... Don't forget the one in power who set the rules can come out one rule every quarter to stir up whatever expectation one has...

So, its all back to square one in the end and what one want to catch is the ideal sweet spot one can accept... 60k? 50k? 40k? 30k? 20k? Or even 10k?.... One decide for themselves which one to bite...

I'd say $40k COE is highly possible. And while this may sound ridiculous, if there are enough buyers who are willing to hold back in anticipation of further price falls, then it could possibly fall further.

 

Just my personal guess.

[Bigtoothpick]

Yes its inevitable. But somehow the dealers are trying to paint a different scenario and saying it wont drop sooner. Lets wait and see how the market reacts the next few rounds. Moving into Y2015 will be very interesting.

That's why I'm one of those against dealer bidding for COE. Their only motivation is to drive sales. They HAVE to say that COE prices will not fall, if not who will sign on the dotted line today if they think that prices will fall tomorrow?

 

Think Japan. Before Abenomics, they had deflation for more than 10 years. Why? If u knew that a new TV set will cost less tomorrow, what's the hurry to get one... hence the spiral arising from reduced consumption...

[Aukang]

May I ask mcf brothers what you think a fair COE price should be...taking current and future context into consideration ? May be wisful thinking, but I would probably be comfortable with a 20k Cat A and 25k Cat B COE.

[Powxus]

Let me throw in another factor to consider.

During low price COE days, there were significant number of off peak cars registered. In 2005, there was a net increase of about 7,000 OPCs over previous year. In 2006 - 12,000 increase, in 2007 and 2008, about 9,000 additional OPCs per year. These are NET figures, actual new registrations would be higher as some OPC deregistration would have occurred.

 

Now, would these OPCs being taken off in the next few years come back still as OPCs at COE of say $40k? Remember the COE then was around $10k plus or less. That group of buyers (whether first owner or not) will not be in the market for new OPC today. If so, then the pool of replacement COEs for normal cars will be boosted further.

 

It seems to me that COE price fall is inevitable.

 

Most OPC owners would just convert to normal cars are make a healthy profit. I am not sure if there is still so many left.

[Tohto]

I'd say $40k COE is highly possible. And while this may sound ridiculous, if there are enough buyers who are willing to hold back in anticipation of further price falls, then it could possibly fall further.

 

Just my personal guess.

When it is getting too low to hurt the revenue of our policy maker, the policy will change again.

[Powxus]

May I ask mcf brothers what you think a fair COE price should be...taking current and future context into consideration ? May be wisful thinking, but I would probably be comfortable with a 20k Cat A and 25k Cat B COE.

 

I feel it will stablize around $40k to $50k. It really depends on the affordability of average majority. Once majority can afford, there will be a surge in demand which will drive up the COE price.

[Ahseng]

Gahmen already succeeded. BIG TIME.

 

There are tons of ppl dreaming that once COE reaches 50k or thereabouts HUAT LIAO LA!! GA GA HOOT!

 

50k ley bros...they have succeeded in brainwashing the masses that 50k for the paper is GOOD DEAL.

[Bigtoothpick]

 

Most OPC owners would just convert to normal cars are make a healthy profit. I am not sure if there is still so many left.

In end-2013, there were 42,233 OPCs. Seems not that many converted their cars to normal during the last 12 months. Per my earlier post, it's a safe bet that a large proportion of these were from cheap COE years.

Gahmen already succeeded. BIG TIME.

 

There are tons of ppl dreaming that once COE reaches 50k or thereabouts HUAT LIAO LA!! GA GA HOOT!

 

50k ley bros...they have succeeded in brainwashing the masses that 50k for the paper is GOOD DEAL.

Yes, unfortunately I think so too. When I paid $40k for a COE in 1999 for a one-litre car, for many years it always felt so painful looking back. Today $40k looks cheap by comparison.

[Powxus]

Gahmen already succeeded. BIG TIME.

 

There are tons of ppl dreaming that once COE reaches 50k or thereabouts HUAT LIAO LA!! GA GA HOOT!

 

50k ley bros...they have succeeded in brainwashing the masses that 50k for the paper is GOOD DEAL.

 

So if the mass thinks that $50k must whack, it will not go lower than that because everyone will chiong to show room and book.

But I would think more of what is the affordability level of most people. We have people paying $70k - $90k in the past 3 years years so how many more of such people are still around in the next 3 years.