More COE Next Year (2014) .....

[Enye]

So your logic the 1.2M population increase all are maid and FW in past decade

 

no that's not my logic

[Mcflky]

I recall statement by MOT/LTA that they will smooth out the peaks and troughs in COE supply by withholding some COE from the bumper years for release in subsequent years.

 

So I think it will not drop as drastically as some expect.

[Bigtoothpick]

I recall statement by MOT/LTA that they will smooth out the peaks and troughs in COE supply by withholding some COE from the bumper years for release in subsequent years.

 

So I think it will not drop as drastically as some expect.

Yup they did make all the right noises. Just need to question, what is considered "drastic" drop? I can guarantee you no one in LTA has any idea. Cos nowhere else in the world anything like COE exists.

[Mcflky]

Yup they did make all the right noises. Just need to question, what is considered "drastic" drop? I can guarantee you no one in LTA has any idea. Cos nowhere else in the world anything like COE exists.

 

 

Agree that that is an open question.

 

What is clear to me however is that in the next 10 years cycle, there will come a time where the COE supply will be less than the number of de-registrations, followed by a period where the COE supply is more than the number of de-registrations.

[Sdexxxxd]

I recall statement by MOT/LTA that they will smooth out the peaks and troughs in COE supply by withholding some COE from the bumper years for release in subsequent years.

 

So I think it will not drop as drastically as some expect.

The car population is 600,000.

If averaged out per year quota should be 60,000.

Last yearly quota was slightly above 20,000

Guess they will continue to release more until it hit 60,000

Then thats whereby they will claw back some supplies.

It should start in 2016-2017 where there are 100,000 due to scrap

Of course theres a chance it might happen early 2015 if people decide to scrap their cars when it becomes 8-9 year old...

[Bigtoothpick]

The car population is 600,000.

If averaged out per year quota should be 60,000.

Last yearly quota was slightly above 20,000

Guess they will continue to release more until it hit 60,000

 

This is exactly the kind of compelling info that's easy to understand by the masses. If more people were aware of this, would they be so easily affected by dealers who now still claim that COE prices will continue to climb....? It seems quite obvious that current price levels are not sustainable. Add to that the tight financing rules in place now compared to 100% financing available in the past, the demand side is not likely to even out the supply side at current prices. Population growth notwithstanding, cause we know income inequality has widened over the years.

[Sdexxxxd]

This is exactly the kind of compelling info that's easy to understand by the masses. If more people were aware of this, would they be so easily affected by dealers who now still claim that COE prices will continue to climb....? It seems quite obvious that current price levels are not sustainable. Add to that the tight financing rules in place now compared to 100% financing available in the past, the demand side is not likely to even out the supply side at current prices. Population growth notwithstanding, cause we know income inequality has widened over the years.

 

Yes agreed. the financing terms are very tight now. 50% DP and loan need to repay within 5 years.

 

Unless government sees a drastic decline in COE revenue, thats when they would relax the loan rules again.

[mdgg]

Personally, I feel that there should be a separate COE category for OPC. To encourage more OPC users, LTA should extend the off-peak hours to, say, 10am to 4pm. Over the years of driving, I have not experience any traffic jam during this time zone, unless of course there was a road accident or road work. As a matter of fact some roads are even under utilized. We can easily handle another 20% of cars on the road without causing any congestion. Take for example, those teachers that drive to work daily. They will definitely reach school by 7am and be back home by 4pm if they are in the morning stream. Likewise, for the afternoon stream teachers, they will be in school during noon time and will be encouraged to leave a little bit longer around 7pm. So with this extended grace time zone period, I foresee most, if not all teachers will buy or switch to OPC. This will make the OPC system more viable and more widely accepted. Also, those working on flexible hours will also benefit from this extended hours. Start work at 6am and leave by 3:30pm, or start work at 10:30am and leave at midnight. Seems more viable. I guess this is a win-win situation for both car ownership and better regulate the traffic flow on our roads during peak hours.

[Chowyunfatt]

Personally, I feel that there should be a separate COE category for OPC. To encourage more OPC users, LTA should extend the off-peak hours to, say, 10am to 4pm. Over the years of driving, I have not experience any traffic jam during this time zone, unless of course there was a road accident or road work. As a matter of fact some roads are even under utilized. We can easily handle another 20% of cars on the road without causing any congestion. Take for example, those teachers that drive to work daily. They will definitely reach school by 7am and be back home by 4pm if they are in the morning stream. Likewise, for the afternoon stream teachers, they will be in school during noon time and will be encouraged to leave a little bit longer around 7pm. So with this extended grace time zone period, I foresee most, if not all teachers will buy or switch to OPC. This will make the OPC system more viable and more widely accepted. Also, those working on flexible hours will also benefit from this extended hours. Start work at 6am and leave by 3:30pm, or start work at 10:30am and leave at midnight. Seems more viable. I guess this is a win-win situation for both car ownership and better regulate the traffic flow on our roads during peak hours.

 

But the traffic during Weekends & Holidays will be horrendous ...

[HermanGuoh]

Hi all, got a noob question to ask. If I wanna self-bid for tmr's COE via ATM, do i need to have the bid amount eg. $65K in my ATM account?

[3ply]

 

Yes agreed. the financing terms are very tight now. 50% DP and loan need to repay within 5 years.

 

Unless government sees a drastic decline in COE revenue, thats when they would relax the loan rules again.

 

Or when Elections is coming soon.

[Wolfverine]

Nope; you just need $10k which will be held as a refundable deposit in the event if not successful.

 

 

Hi all, got a noob question to ask. If I wanna self-bid for tmr's COE via ATM, do i need to have the bid amount eg. $65K in my ATM account?

 

[Duckduck]

I want to offer an alternative view lest we all wait in vain:

 

The COE and ARF are taxes which are partially refunded when one trades in/sells a vehicle. This is the guaranteed paper value. No where else in world does a govt refund a tax in guaranteed, amortised amounts.

 

Instead of waiting and whining, just see the extra you pay for COE and ARF as a partially refundable deposit.

 

As explained by accountants and traders, see your vehicle as a store of value, guaranteed by the govt.

 

So it's not a case of waiting for COE to drop, but a personal battle to achieve your discretionary spending savings target. Blame no one but yourself if you fail to achieve it.

 

err but if coe drops alot, u can "achieve your discretionary spending savings target" much faster. that volatility is wat is frustrating everyone

[Baal]

Personally, I feel that there should be a separate COE category for OPC. To encourage more OPC users, LTA should extend the off-peak hours to, say, 10am to 4pm. Over the years of driving, I have not experience any traffic jam during this time zone, unless of course there was a road accident or road work. As a matter of fact some roads are even under utilized. We can easily handle another 20% of cars on the road without causing any congestion. Take for example, those teachers that drive to work daily. They will definitely reach school by 7am and be back home by 4pm if they are in the morning stream. Likewise, for the afternoon stream teachers, they will be in school during noon time and will be encouraged to leave a little bit longer around 7pm. So with this extended grace time zone period, I foresee most, if not all teachers will buy or switch to OPC. This will make the OPC system more viable and more widely accepted. Also, those working on flexible hours will also benefit from this extended hours. Start work at 6am and leave by 3:30pm, or start work at 10:30am and leave at midnight. Seems more viable. I guess this is a win-win situation for both car ownership and better regulate the traffic flow on our roads during peak hours.

 

perhaps in view that coe prices could be violatile, another suggestion if I may :

 

- Base rebate $20k or 35-40% (breakeven at 50k coe) whichever is higher.

- Old rules apply, if arf + coe cannot meet 20k, then balance is Non Applicable.

 

 

[Super7]

The COE and ARF are taxes which are partially refunded when one trades in/sells a vehicle. This is the guaranteed paper value. No where else in world does a govt refund a tax in guaranteed, amortised amounts.

 

Another way to look at COE:- it is a 'fee' paid 10 years in advance for the car to be used on the roads legally. In other words, it is like collecting 10 years of road tax in one go, on day one!

 

so the idea of COE being a govt refund tax is incorrect

 

i could be wrong though

[Super7]

 

But the traffic during Weekends & Holidays will be horrendous ...

 

I guess on weekdays people have to drive to work, no choice, so it will be very inconvenient to be caught in a jam.

 

On weekends / holidays, going out is not compulsory, or at least the time to drive on the road is flexible, unlike 9-5 working days commute

[Super7]

Personally, I feel that there should be a separate COE category for OPC. To encourage more OPC users, LTA should extend the off-peak hours to, say, 10am to 4pm. Over the years of driving, I have not experience any traffic jam during this time zone, unless of course there was a road accident or road work. As a matter of fact some roads are even under utilized. We can easily handle another 20% of cars on the road without causing any congestion. Take for example, those teachers that drive to work daily. They will definitely reach school by 7am and be back home by 4pm if they are in the morning stream. Likewise, for the afternoon stream teachers, they will be in school during noon time and will be encouraged to leave a little bit longer around 7pm. So with this extended grace time zone period, I foresee most, if not all teachers will buy or switch to OPC. This will make the OPC system more viable and more widely accepted. Also, those working on flexible hours will also benefit from this extended hours. Start work at 6am and leave by 3:30pm, or start work at 10:30am and leave at midnight. Seems more viable. I guess this is a win-win situation for both car ownership and better regulate the traffic flow on our roads during peak hours.

 

Another related "cheat" LTA has beening doing:- We know OPC coe only entitles the car to be driven during restricted hours (unless additional 'passes' are purchased). In other words, each OPC COE is putting a car on the road for limited hours (ie 12 hours out of 24 hours) vs full COE putting a car 24 hours a day, mathematically speaking.

 

In this case, if every buyer buys OPC COE in a particular month, shouldnt say 20,000 COE quota per month be converted to 40,000 OPC COE as a principle? I am using this as an illustration that LTA should manage the pre-set monthly COE quota using 2 OPC COE = 1 full COE simply because OPC COE potentially generates only an addition of 50% traffic load on our roads as compared with 100% additional traffic load generated by full COE.

 

If COEs quota for the month = 20,000 full-COEs, and 10,000 OPC COEs are sold

 

The balance full-COEs available = 20,000 - (10,000 x 50%) = 15,000 full-COEs (available for sales through bidding)

Edited May 6, 2014 by Super7

[Wt_know]

the same thing i hear from car dealer ...

high coe is good ... high coe means high car value

$100k coe is good

 

I want to offer an alternative view lest we all wait in vain:

 

The COE and ARF are taxes which are partially refunded when one trades in/sells a vehicle. This is the guaranteed paper value. No where else in world does a govt refund a tax in guaranteed, amortised amounts.

 

Instead of waiting and whining, just see the extra you pay for COE and ARF as a partially refundable deposit.

 

As explained by accountants and traders, see your vehicle as a store of value, guaranteed by the govt.

 

So it's not a case of waiting for COE to drop, but a personal battle to achieve your discretionary spending savings target. Blame no one but yourself if you fail to achieve it.