More COE Next Year (2014) .....

[Duckduck]

Huh? TA for COE?

 

COEs depend more on the supply then stock market or whatever. The decrease in price over the next few years should be due to the increase in supply more than anything although financial climate do have an impact. You don't need a graph to know that COE is heading south, unless the govt policy changes.

 

I say again, the current imbalance of COE supply will get worse if left unchecked, and the govt will not let the cycle repeat unnecessarily. So they will try to tweak the supply to make it more constant.

 

So, buy your car when you find the price satisfactory, and do not wait for the bottom because there might be changes before it bottoms out.

 

my COE TA has nothing to do w stock mkt, it is a TA of COE itself. Just like commodities n FX, theyre all function of supply n demand, so why do pple chart commodities? Same reason why i attempt to chart COE.

TA for COE......well, think it provide another perspective but I dun think I will use it.

 

its just another way to see prices. Even if u dont look at my COE TA at all, at least try to understand fibonacci sequence. It even applies to property prices! anyway another topic for another day.

[Spring]

 

my COE TA has nothing to do w stock mkt, it is a TA of COE itself. Just like commodities n FX, theyre all function of supply n demand, so why do pple chart commodities? Same reason why i attempt to chart COE.

 

 

its just another way to see prices. Even if u dont look at my COE TA at all, at least try to understand fibonacci sequence. It even applies to property prices! anyway another topic for another day.

Bro, I believe in TA.

But can translate into simple English boh? I layman don't quite understand

the complexities, just want a summation of what the chart says. thks!!

[Maroon5]

This year you use different route?

stil exactly the same. now even i leave home at 8am i can reach office at 830 +/- 5 min.

[Super7]

stil exactly the same. now even i leave home at 8am i can reach office at 830 +/- 5 min.

Same route but now faster! How come, road widened or new route diverting some cars away?

[Enye]

if TA or any kind of forecasting tools is ever accurate

 

people no need to work liao. stay at home watch computer screen can earn big bucks

 

I bo tak cheh peasant don't understand TA, i prefer to consult bomoh or tang kee

 

 

 

 

 

[Duckduck]

 

 

Bro, I believe in TA.

But can translate into simple English boh? I layman don't quite understand

the complexities, just want a summation of what the chart says. thks!!

 

im not a fortune teller hor.

 

- the chart says that multi year price uptrend broken liao.

- likely 50K is max downside this year.

- next year wat price i dunno.

 

The end.

 

[Maroon5]

Same route but now faster! How come, road widened or new route diverting some cars away?

im guessing MCE as previously the cars tat has to go into Raffles only had Nicoll and Benjamin Shears (ECP), but now one more big road to use.

[Ktglfc]

if TA or any kind of forecasting tools is ever accurate

 

people no need to work liao. stay at home watch computer screen can earn big bucks

 

I bo tak cheh peasant don't understand TA, i prefer to consult bomoh or tang kee

 

 

 

 

 

Actually, I don't care abt TA or FA.

I only care abt whether COE will drop at the end of the day (till end of year).

TA is based on historical but knowing our COE system, it may or may not follow past.

 

Anyway, whatever, pls drop and drop and drop like Lao sai :)

I don't care whether garmen policy of curbing population by COE work or not, sorry, I am not so noble.

And btw, they have other means of curbing, using ERP, etc.

I only care abt my pocket.

If I can wait, why should I be paying something extra so much just to beef up garmen income?!

Garmen won't say thank you to me, in fact, they will tax me more.

 

I will continue to wait... And I am sure it will come down !

[Mowaxchua]

if TA or any kind of forecasting tools is ever accurate

 

people no need to work liao. stay at home watch computer screen can earn big bucks

 

I bo tak cheh peasant don't understand TA, i prefer to consult bomoh or tang kee

 

Please dont misunderstand that TA is to forecasting indicator. TA is Technical Analysis.

My TA is using moving average.

A moving average is commonly used with time series data to smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlight longer-term trends or cycles.

1) When COE at 91k, MACD(Moving Average Convergence Divergence) histogram is at the highest. (This is very dangerous).

Same rules apply to stock, u wan to buy low sell high NOT buy high and sell low.

2) After 91k, price down to go down n then up again. When price after 85k, MACD histogram is ticking down. This is call bearish divergence.

3) And price start to stabilise and move up(MACD histogram start to tick up).

4) MACD histogram suppose to tick up and move above zero reference line but it failed. This is called missing right shoulder. and MACD histogram created a long histogram.

If you look at the chart. The safest point to buy car is when MACD line is below zero line not above the zero line.

I not trying to prove or selling TA can work for COE. But looking at the chart. It seems like it a good guide of entry.

I cant catch the botton, but i wan to know when it start to reversal of trend.

Cheers!

Edited May 8, 2014 by Mowaxchua

[Baal]

I cant catch the botton, but i wan to know when it start to reversal of trend.

Cheers!

 

 

Thats is the key sentence.

 

I actually also wanted to plot an excel sheet to catch the reversal of trend.

As I'm PQP folk, if I see it going up 2 consecutive bids, its time to renew. This is of course assuming it continues to go down to 40-50k region.

[Spring]

 

im not a fortune teller hor.

 

- the chart says that multi year price uptrend broken liao.

- likely 50K is max downside this year.

- next year wat price i dunno.

 

The end.

Ok thank you sir! I work in bank ops so I know charts can be useful but unfortunately dont have the skill nor exposure to interpret them.

 

Personally I also don't believe COE will go below 50k over the next year or so but this one is gut feel only and also cos I've been following cars for many years now. Then again I've been proven wrong many times haha!!

[Super7]

 

Thats is the key sentence.

 

I actually also wanted to plot an excel sheet to catch the reversal of trend.

As I'm PQP folk, if I see it going up 2 consecutive bids, its time to renew. This is of course assuming it continues to go down to 40-50k region.

I too bioing PQP

[Dafansu]

 

Thats is the key sentence.

 

I actually also wanted to plot an excel sheet to catch the reversal of trend.

As I'm PQP folk, if I see it going up 2 consecutive bids, its time to renew. This is of course assuming it continues to go down to 40-50k region.

renewal can be only be done anytime between the 9 to 10 years right?

Edited May 8, 2014 by Dafansu

[Yenyenpark]

In fact i have been to major aussie cities and some cities in europe like paris or amsterdam, i notice one thing in their cbd which our cbd dun have which is a wide lane and of course some of these cities are cyclist friendly and have their own lane for cyclist. Unlike in sg

 

i heard their CBD parking is like 800 per month.. ><"

[Baal]

renewal can be only be done anytime between the 9 to 10 years right?

 

I believe can be renewed anytime. But balance coe ($) forfeited. Parf forfeited.

[Roh96]

Living a life in Spore jin chiam, everything have to wait. Buy new car have to wait, buy house have to wait, renew COE have to wait, getting married have to wait(for BTO), morning take MRT have to wait, lunch time makan have to wait. Alamak, what is life?

 

 

 

[Duckduck]

to those who thk garmen will step in & adjust quota to prevent history from repeating, i thk this may not happen.

 

Alot complain when price going higher, but little complains if prices drop. So why wld they push up prices on purpose?

 

Most pple dont have long term foresight when it comes to such things n they dont care if history repeats. Most just care that right here right now prices are falling.

[Hosaybo]

To me....I think I only know that coming 2016 should be the time where the supply is highest as most car by that time die de have to scrap. How is the price, it will depend on the demand and whether the gov will make changes or not to the supply (which I think they won't as it is election year). So the price at that time, should rough be where it s lowest (does not imply cheap as population increase can easily create the demand) as a number of margin buyers last time will be price out.