More COE Next Year (2014) .....

[Super7]

 

In a traffic congestion ... I really don't think any car you drive will make a difference ... Still stuck, so Public Transport got better hope ... A friend of mine takes a Private Bus service to his office is CBD area & parks his car at home ... He's been doing this for the longest time ... No need to worry so much & travel in comfort, reach office in a good mood some more, he says ...

 

Private Bus Service ... Nice & Comfy ... Got Air-Con, can read newspaper ... if lucky, got Chio Bu to ogle at some more ...

 

I use private bus frequently as its convenient and hussle-free.

 

THis is only one of many ways our existing public transport can be improved. Until and unless such convenient public transport is in place, many will still have to drive.

[Fastnfaster]

Not only are you not wrong, you are already very kind in putting things this way.

 

The way I see it, the hard, plain and bitter truth is that no one, absolutely no one, in Singapore actually owns a car. You are merely renting it. Even if you pay 100% by cash for a new car, you will not own it after 10 years unless you pay again. In the rest of the world, you actually own the car because it is yours forever once you have paid for it.

 

There is a different price to pay if you want to "own" a car forever, just like a freehold property vs 99yrs/999yrs leasehold property.

 

Or do you want to be stuck in a jam every day or pay a high price for parking like some countries?

 

If you really like your car so much, I believe you have the option to extend your coe, and you can still own it for the next 10yrs.

 

Btw, if you have paid in full under your name, you are the legal owner. You get to keep the money when you decide to sell it. ..unlike if its a rental one..

[Baal]

 

I use private bus frequently as its convenient and hussle-free.

 

THis is only one of many ways our existing public transport can be improved. Until and unless such convenient public transport is in place, many will still have to drive.

 

When I was working at a previous location which was out of the way & before elder kid was P1, oc used to take private bus. 1 way to CBD $3, all in. Confirm have seat, aircon & can chill for 45mins to office.

 

Currently, I have a colleague who's home location, office location alike grants him the coincidental privilege of boarding a SBS bus with seats available both ways.

[Hydrocarbon]

When I was working at a previous location which was out of the way & before elder kid was P1, oc used to take private bus. 1 way to CBD $3, all in. Confirm have seat, aircon & can chill for 45mins to office.

 

Currently, I have a colleague who's home location, office location alike grants him the coincidental privilege of boarding a SBS bus with seats available both ways.

 

I also wish got like this, $3 from home to office, got seat, got aircond. But right now, I pay about $2 or so, home to office, bus -> MRT -> bus, no confirmed seat, and sometimes, no confirmed standing slot also (means MRT no space)!

 

Extra $1 got confirmed plus almost doorstep to doorstep, SIGN ME UP!

[Ezfaun]

I also think shuttle buses are a good idea. Owners of such buses can set up a rule where passengers can only board the bus if there are seats available. Less drivers on the road and less people being pissed of day to day. But will gov allow, I don't know. A few here and there, maybe. But if the number of shuttles increase it will definitely affect their revenue.

[nitecycler]

COE for CAT A drop to 60K liao for May bidding

[Gaolow]

Let see whether following cycle is true... hmmm

 

point 1--> ERP revenue drop --->increase COE quota --->number of car up--->ERP earn money--->COE revenue drop-->
COE quota cut--->COE price up--->COE revenues increase--->Car population drop--->back to start point 1

[Super7]

 

When I was working at a previous location which was out of the way & before elder kid was P1, oc used to take private bus. 1 way to CBD $3, all in. Confirm have seat, aircon & can chill for 45mins to office.

 

Currently, I have a colleague who's home location, office location alike grants him the coincidental privilege of boarding a SBS bus with seats available both ways.

 

This is the kind of bus service which people want to use!! Others may still prefer the normal buses. So please give commuters the options!

[Devilcup]

Let see whether following cycle is true... hmmm

 

point 1--> ERP revenue drop --->increase COE quota --->number of car up--->ERP earn money--->COE revenue drop-->

COE quota cut--->COE price up--->COE revenues increase--->Car population drop--->back to start point 1

 

hmmm they can rise ERP price saying it is inflation... :X

[Duckduck]

heres my "TA" on COE prices:

 

For cat A & B, as can be seen theres a very important green trendline from 2009. Both cats hit that trendline more than once, especially cat A.

 

So cat A is at a critical support price now, with cat B almost there too. If that trendline is broken for either cats, then it opens them to the purple line which is around the 61.8% fib retracement, which also happens to be the bottom last year when loan to values were decreased for car financing.

 

So the levels to watch are ard 73K, 61.8k, then 50k followed by abt 40k. "Upside" target is 100K if green trendline is well supported.

 

 

Update to my previous COE TA:

 

Cat A's multi yr uptrend support has clearly been broken & has settled ard the 61.% fib retracement which i mentioned previously. I expect cat A to hang around this price for awhile before establishing the next bigger move. It may even go back up but upside should be capped by bottom of its previous trend support of abt $70K. Cat B is less clear but if its high correlation to Cat E remains, likely its headed down to 61.8 fib as well. The past few yrs, COE annual moves were no more abt $30K, so I since this yr COE has already declined abt $20K, the max downside this yr shld be the next major support of abt $50K. $40K cld be achieved but likely next yr onwards if at all.

 

 

 

[Wt_know]

well done duckduck

please share when the TA shows another broke downwards

cat a $92,100 can plan to scrap car already when cat a broke $50k?

 

Edited May 7, 2014 by Wt_know

[Achee]

 

Update to my previous COE TA:

 

Cat A's multi yr uptrend support has clearly been broken & has settled ard the 61.% fib retracement which i mentioned previously. I expect cat A to hang around this price for awhile before establishing the next bigger move. It may even go back up but upside should be capped by bottom of its previous trend support of abt $70K. Cat B is less clear but if its high correlation to Cat E remains, likely its headed down to 61.8 fib as well. The past few yrs, COE annual moves were no more abt $30K, so I since this yr COE has already declined abt $20K, the max downside this yr shld be the next major support of abt $50K. $40K cld be achieved but likely next yr onwards if at all.

 

 

 

You are even better than Christopher Tan, the motoring journalist

[Mowaxchua]

My COE Cat A chart(2002 till today) has shown bearish divergence (If you know how read stock chart). This is very useful to time your entry price.

Remember you can nvr catch the bottom but what the chart can tell you is when the reversal of the trend(uptrend or downtrend).

Cheers!

[Coltplussport]

 

Update to my previous COE TA:

 

Cat A's multi yr uptrend support has clearly been broken & has settled ard the 61.% fib retracement which i mentioned previously. I expect cat A to hang around this price for awhile before establishing the next bigger move. It may even go back up but upside should be capped by bottom of its previous trend support of abt $70K. Cat B is less clear but if its high correlation to Cat E remains, likely its headed down to 61.8 fib as well. The past few yrs, COE annual moves were no more abt $30K, so I since this yr COE has already declined abt $20K, the max downside this yr shld be the next major support of abt $50K. $40K cld be achieved but likely next yr onwards if at all.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Huh? TA for COE?

 

COEs depend more on the supply then stock market or whatever. The decrease in price over the next few years should be due to the increase in supply more than anything although financial climate do have an impact. You don't need a graph to know that COE is heading south, unless the govt policy changes.

 

I say again, the current imbalance of COE supply will get worse if left unchecked, and the govt will not let the cycle repeat unnecessarily. So they will try to tweak the supply to make it more constant.

 

So, buy your car when you find the price satisfactory, and do not wait for the bottom because there might be changes before it bottoms out.

[Maroon5]

i used to curse n swear driving to work (50min normal traffic no accidents for 18km distance). if accident, rain then god help me. my boss alr given up on me texting him i wil b late (again).

 

but i mus say this yr the traffic has improved alot. i m now doing 30min now. HAPPY!!!

[Super7]

i used to curse n swear driving to work (50min normal traffic no accidents for 18km distance). if accident, rain then god help me. my boss alr given up on me texting him i wil b late (again).

 

but i mus say this yr the traffic has improved alot. i m now doing 30min now. HAPPY!!!

This year you use different route?

[Roh96]

well done duckduck

please share when the TA shows another broke downwards

cat a $92,100 can plan to scrap car already when cat a broke $50k?

 

 

Based on 10% cut loss, they should have sold when COE drop below 80K to cut loss. If they missed that point, enter at 50K to average down, buy another car.

[Hosaybo]

TA for COE......well, think it provide another perspective but I dun think I will use it.