2015 Jun, 2nd COE Bidding Exercise

[Csc2015]

And also because of legacy of the brand. My worst wagen car cannot compare.

 

If BM or SE service so bad, even the best brand will turn people off. Collect deposit only bid once out of 6 bidding and after one month, still have not refunded deposit. Just waste people's time. Will you want to be treated like this?

Edited June 18, 2015 by Csc2015

[Freeder]

Why buy certain cars just becos you think the SE is nice?

Precisely , u buy the car not the SE...

SE is just there to do the paper work for u ...

[Csc2015]

Precisely , u buy the car not the SE...

SE is just there to do the paper work for u ...

 

We dont't look for super SE as long as we can trust SE to do proper paper work for you. Ultimately is still the company policies that matter most.

[Voodooman]

Toyota buyers are usually those who just want 4 wheels, have no time to do comparisons, lazy to do research, want to play it very safe and who love to follow the crowd blindly.

That is quite a sweeping statement. People value different things differently. ie. reliability, handling, performance, brand, interior, design, cost of ownership, price points, etc. People who buy Toyota are those who value some of the aboves more than others. While I won't buy a Toyota now, I won't label Toyota owners as lazy and blind followers, they are just practical and perhaps more cost conscious than you.

[OTOT]

That is not what I meant. If COE price continue to drop, it will signal to cut supply. I think COE will always be high. There may be occasional drop but will rise again quickly, just like petrol prices.

 

 

Number of Bids < Number of COE = Crash!!!

 

In my memory. we only experience two crashes previously. I doubt that will happen.

 

So your logic implies that OCS will never happen because number of bids > number of COEs.

 

Thanks for supporting the COE price will drop camp

[Voodooman]

That is not what I meant. If COE price continue to drop, it will signal to cut supply. I think COE will always be high. There may be occasional drop but will rise again quickly, just like petrol prices.

 

 

Why would LTA cut COE supply when COE price drop?

 

To increase revenue by pushing up COE prices (but this will be negated by a smaller supply)?

 

OCS?

 

The govt cannot suka suka increase / decrease COE supply lah.

[Limwsv]

That is not what I meant. If COE price continue to drop, it will signal to cut supply. I think COE will always be high. There may be occasional drop but will rise again quickly, just like petrol prices.

 

 

Darn, LTA just miss the chance to keep COE at 75K. They should have just keep the number of COE to 350 per quota.

 

Nevermind, the government can always make any changes when they want, next month they will announce that there will be only 700 CAT A COEs per month to reduce total car population back down to 200 000 cars.

 

Happy?

 

Edited June 18, 2015 by Limwsv

[Voodooman]

owning a car is luxury to me .. if I cannot afford then be it.. I will have to work harder next time and buy within mean. COE don't have to come down just because I want to buy a car or the government has to make it within our reach although I do credit this saga to government action. this society is realistic money speaks louder. like alibaba founder said, can only blame myself for being poor haha.

That is not what he is saying.

 

Why is the "got money buy, no money sucks thumb" argument repeated so often in COE threads these days? Limwsv and many others are not asking for subsidies or govt actions when sharing their views that COE prices should drop more going forward.

 

Many here needs to take Economics 101 to understand why COE prices is falling and will continue to fall till the next support level, which should be below 56k for Cat A and 67k for Cat B.

[Heman75]

That is not what he is saying.

 

Why is the "got money buy, no money sucks thumb" argument repeated so often in COE threads these days? Limwsv and many others are not asking for subsidies or govt actions when sharing their views that COE prices should drop more going forward.

 

Many here needs to take Economics 101 to understand why COE prices is falling and will continue to fall till the next support level, which should be below 56k for Cat A and 67k for Cat B.

It's ok for me. You are the best and understand economic most. No problem. Not going to dwell further.

[Csc2015]

I guess people buy toyota does not bother whether their SE stuck up or not. People buy toyota is for the brand itself. That's why no matter how much the coe price is, you see people still buy toyota cars. Lol.

People are buying other brands too. Toyota is not the only brand around. So people still have a choice... as long as it is within their budget range, toyota or honda or nissan or even Mazda not much difference.

[will80]

That is not what he is saying.

 

Why is the "got money buy, no money sucks thumb" argument repeated so often in COE threads these days? Limwsv and many others are not asking for subsidies or govt actions when sharing their views that COE prices should drop more going forward.

 

Many here needs to take Economics 101 to understand why COE prices is falling and will continue to fall till the next support level, which should be below 56k for Cat A and 67k for Cat B.

 

I don't take Economics 101 but I do know that we can't use Economics 101 on COE cause the fact is that now the COE still remain above 60k for CAT A and 70k for CAT B.

[Csc2015]

 

Not sure if the following is good reference.

 

Friend of mine placed order for his car with 6 bids non-guaranteed COE back in Feb, since then almost every cycle COE went up a bit and his SE kept calling him to persuade him to top-up "else he will miss the chance once COE go up further". Friend insisted "no" so just before the 6th / final bid his SE called him with an ultimatum; "last chance, top-up now or that's it", to which he replied "good, then you give me back my deposit so I can go buy some other, cheaper car".

 

Ended up his SE gave it to him on the 6th bid despite him not topping up and COE going up since the time he placed order.

 

I think SEs have fat profit margins (probably $five-digits), and would have no problem "absorbing" a few $ks of increment in COE, nonetheless they will still call us to top-up whenever COE goes up so that they can keep that fat margin. But if we refuse, then to them it become a choice / risk of either "earning a little less or earning nothing at all (if we bring our business somewhere else)", and I think in most cases, their choice would be obvious.

 

Of course it might also end up that we ultimately still don't get our car after the last bid, then just take back our deposits and go for another brand lor.

 

Good luck!

 

I think it depends on how much you paid for it. I ordered at $102888 and only bid for me once and after that SE kept asking me to top up but I refused. In the end, my contract was cancelled in mid may but still waiting for my deposit to be refunded. I am now going for another brand.

[So_nice]

I see used car dealers still holding very firm on their selling price. Let's see how long more they can hold. Lol

[Mkl22]

 

Not sure if the following is good reference.

 

Friend of mine placed order for his car with 6 bids non-guaranteed COE back in Feb, since then almost every cycle COE went up a bit and his SE kept calling him to persuade him to top-up "else he will miss the chance once COE go up further". Friend insisted "no" so just before the 6th / final bid his SE called him with an ultimatum; "last chance, top-up now or that's it", to which he replied "good, then you give me back my deposit so I can go buy some other, cheaper car".

 

Ended up his SE gave it to him on the 6th bid despite him not topping up and COE going up since the time he placed order.

 

I think SEs have fat profit margins (probably $five-digits), and would have no problem "absorbing" a few $ks of increment in COE, nonetheless they will still call us to top-up whenever COE goes up so that they can keep that fat margin. But if we refuse, then to them it become a choice / risk of either "earning a little less or earning nothing at all (if we bring our business somewhere else)", and I think in most cases, their choice would be obvious.

 

Of course it might also end up that we ultimately still don't get our car after the last bid, then just take back our deposits and go for another brand lor.

 

Good luck!

Once again it is NOT the SE who decides to give you the Coe of not. Management. Puny SE is just there to service the customer. They have no say on final price as well as decision to bid or not. Any price reduction is cutting his own commission.

[Voodooman]

 

I don't take Economics 101 but I do know that we can't use Economics 101 on COE cause the fact is that now the COE still remain above 60k for CAT A and 70k for CAT B.

Well, I am not an economist but I have taken some basic economics courses more than 20 years ago. And I don't profess to be an expert (Limswv obviously knows more than me). You may also want to know economics is an art and not a science, so I could be wrong but we can surely debate about it.

 

And the reason why I think Cat A will drop below 56k and 67k for Cat B is because those (majority of them) who are willing and able to buy at those prices would have went in Feb this year, so with rising COE supply and shrinking demand at 60/70k level (most orders have been filled as reported by ST), COE should soon test those support levels soon, especially as more supply are added.

 

This is a sensible hypothesis if you understand basic demand and supply theories. Eventhough I have bought my car in Feb this year, I agree largely with what Limswv is saying as it is just economics! And I rather listen to him than others shouting COE will continue to rise despite everything that is stacking against it (pricechart, rising supply, existing loan curbs, general consumer behaviors, etc.). Note short term, COE will continue to rise and fall (2 steps down and 1 step up) but the trend should be clear to all, as predicted by most AD, motoring analysts, PAP (election coming), economists, etc.

 

We can talk about rising replacement demand meeting rising supply but fact is Cat A is now at 61k from 80k previously, so that means some of those replacement demand are not materializing and new demand from FT/PR/first timers are not large enough to plug those gaps.

 

The above comes with the usual ceteris paribus caveat. haha....

[will80]

Well, I am not an economist but I have taken some basic economics courses more than 20 years ago. And I don't profess to be an expert (Limswv obviously knows more than me). You may also want to know economics is an art and not a science, so I could be wrong but we can surely debate about it.

 

And the reason why I think Cat A will drop below 56k and 67k for Cat B is because those (majority of them) who are willing and able to buy at those prices would have went in Feb this year, so with rising COE supply and shrinking demand at 60/70k level (most orders have been filled as reported by ST), COE should soon test those support levels soon, especially as more supply are added.

 

This is a sensible hypothesis if you understand basic demand and supply theories. Eventhough I have bought my car in Feb this year, I agree largely with what Limswv is saying as it is just economics! And I rather listen to him than others shouting COE will continue to rise despite everything that is stacking against it (pricechart, rising supply, existing loan curbs, general consumer behaviors, etc.). Note short term, COE will continue to rise and fall (2 steps down and 1 step up) but the trend should be clear to all, as predicted by most AD, motoring analysts, PAP (election coming), economists, etc.

 

We can talk about rising replacement demand meeting rising supply but fact is Cat A is now at 61k from 80k previously, so that means some of those replacement demand are not materializing and new demand from FT/PR/first timers are not large enough to plug those gaps.

 

The above comes with the usual ceteris paribus caveat. haha....

 

Yes. I also agree COE will drop but the drop won't be that great. I predict COE for CAT A will at most drop to 55K by end of this year and 50K by end of next year. The reason is because the amount of COE is actually in fact no change. The actual new COE is only 0.25% which the rest is consider as 'recycle COE' as it is already tag to a car owner. I will agree COE price will drop to the range of 30K - 40K if there is an increase in the total amount of COE supply but sadly this is not the case as we know that we had reach our peak in the total car population.

 

I believe at least half of those current car owner whose ride is going to expired soon are still able to buy at the current COE price. They haven't went in Feb this year is cause their ride haven't expired yet and this cycle will keep repeating. So we cannot say that the group of 60K COE buyer are almost gone. It is just that their current ride is not due yet.

 

Of course I might be wrong but this is how I feel about the current COE trend. In short, COE might drop to 50K in the future but don't expect it to drop to the good old period of 2005 -2008. During that period, COE can maintain at a very low price is because government release a lot of new COE supply.

[Weezersg]

 

Yes. I also agree COE will drop but the drop won't be that great. I predict COE for CAT A will at most drop to 55K by end of this year and 50K by end of next year. The reason is because the amount of COE is actually in fact no change. The actual new COE is only 0.25% which the rest is consider as 'recycle COE' as it is already tag to a car owner. I will agree COE price will drop to the range of 30K - 40K if there is an increase in the total amount of COE supply but sadly this is not the case as we know that we had reach our peak in the total car population.

 

I believe at least half of those current car owner whose ride is going to expired soon are still able to buy at the current COE price. They haven't went in Feb this year is cause their ride haven't expired yet and this cycle will keep repeating. So we cannot say that the group of 60K COE buyer are almost gone. It is just that their current ride is not due yet.

 

Of course I might be wrong but this is how I feel about the current COE trend. In short, COE might drop to 50K in the future but don't expect it to drop to the good old period of 2005 -2008. During that period, COE can maintain at a very low price is because government release a lot of new COE supply.

 

Yup agreed what you said make sense. COE growth rate is only 0.25% vs 3.5%. Population has increased since then so has household income. Another factor COE released is lagging deregistration, so while number of COE is increasing every quarter so is the number of people with deregistred car buying replacement car.

 

Short term COE may go down but hard to see it going back to the 20k-30k level.

[Voodooman]

 

Yes. I also agree COE will drop but the drop won't be that great. I predict COE for CAT A will at most drop to 55K by end of this year and 50K by end of next year. The reason is because the amount of COE is actually in fact no change. The actual new COE is only 0.25% which the rest is consider as 'recycle COE' as it is already tag to a car owner. I will agree COE price will drop to the range of 30K - 40K if there is an increase in the total amount of COE supply but sadly this is not the case as we know that we had reach our peak in the total car population.

 

I believe at least half of those current car owner whose ride is going to expired soon are still able to buy at the current COE price. They haven't went in Feb this year is cause their ride haven't expired yet and this cycle will keep repeating. So we cannot say that the group of 60K COE buyer are almost gone. It is just that their current ride is not due yet.

 

Of course I might be wrong but this is how I feel about the current COE trend. In short, COE might drop to 50K in the future but don't expect it to drop to the good old period of 2005 -2008. During that period, COE can maintain at a very low price is because government release a lot of new COE supply.

I agree with you different batch of replacement buyers has different purchasing power but generally, they should be the same if the sample pool is large enough (it is getting bigger by the day). Yes, I think we can both agree that there will come a time when a base line support level emerges and it should be around the 40-50k level for Cat A (this is more difficult to predict). And I also agree that the days of 20-30k COEs are over, baring a severe recession in the next few years.

 

See, we agree more than we disagree. laugh]