2015 Jul, 1st COE Bidding Exercise

[Lala81]

? Cat A price isn't it 58k already?

 

If everyone thought so hard about car ownership in SG, there won't be so many cars on the road? Fact.

If consumption is so logical lol, why spend your time throwing such stats at me.

 

From my experience, a substantial percentage of people buy cars irrationally. And most can support the car even if it doesn't do wonders for their finances.

 

I don't really care either way lol.

 

 

Bears is not saying that. Bears are saying that current COE price level of 67K is not sustainable. Bears are saying buyers with 67K of cash have already bought whether they are 1 week from scrapping or 2 years from scrapping. Bears are saying that price level has to go the next support level. There are still lots of buyers at next level that need to be serviced. Luckily, supply is obliging and those in the next level will not be locked out. If supply is steady or decreasing, then next level will be lockout forever, ie period between 2011 - 2014.

 

Bears are saying, eventually, next level will also be sated, then it will drop to an even lower level, unlocking the next lower segment of the market. This is the result of an increasing supply. Constricted the supply in any way, and the price drop will be choked off, forever locking out those segments.

 

This bear throws this chart at you. See, not everyone buys cars even if they are wealthy. And not every poor person BMW. The rich change a new car every 3 years, the poor buys a strip down 2nd hand car. Sama sama all jam on the road together.

 

A B&B car at current price level requires $2700 per month to service. If you are really that desperate and willing to spend 30% of your monthly income, you need to earn at least $8100 to buy a new car. Another 30% for your housing loan, and you will be left with $3200 per month to live on for your whole household.

 

Edited July 9, 2015 by Lala81

[Lincoln]

? Cat A price isn't it 58k already?

 

If everyone thought so hard about car ownership in SG, there won't be so many cars on the road? Fact.

If consumption is so logical lol, why spend your time throwing such stats at me.

 

From my experience, a substantial percentage of people buy cars irrationally. And most can support the car even if it doesn't do wonders for their finances.

 

I don't really care either way lol.

 

 

 

 

Indeed. Majority buy cars irrationally and many more dun think so hard. Thus, they do not worry about over paying for their cars (i.e. got money just buy) or simply become happy when COE prices goes up (i.e. see I tell you so, sg population is so big).

 

A few spend time doing research and timed their purchases. They enjoyed the process of securing the best deal when they decide the moment to strike. People share, we learn. If you dun, then just continue to be in that majority.

 

Good that you dun care, yet care enough to write that you dun. :)

Edited July 9, 2015 by Lincoln

[Limwsv]

? Cat A price isn't it 58k already?

 

If everyone thought so hard about car ownership in SG, there won't be so many cars on the road? Fact.

If consumption is so logical lol, why spend your time throwing such stats at me.

 

From my experience, a substantial percentage of people buy cars irrationally. And most can support the car even if it doesn't do wonders for their finances.

 

I don't really care either way lol.

 

 

 

 

Yes, we are seeing the support level hovering around 50K - 55K. Remember, car dealers suck up most of the demand that would have supported the 55K - 60K by scaring them into buying early between Feb - May. My bearish arguments with folks here started when COE is 67K, which they think will be sustained forever even with an increasing supply.

 

Also, bearish sentiments breds more bearish sentiments. That's why the bulls are trying to halt the rout. If you have 60K now, and you can buy a new car. Would you spent it immediately or wait another 3 months to buy at 50K? If your answer is buy now, I have a property agent to recommend to you. He will be so happy if you buy a property from him now.

 

As for your experiences with rational/irrational people. It has zero bearings on the market. Market has been going down regardless of your experiences. That tells me that market is rational and is not spending at this current level.

 

As you whether you care or not, again that has no bearing. I only care to explain to any bulls and those sitting on the fences that current market is unsustainable. Bears are out on the prowl. Bulls will be challenged on posting. Especially senseless bulls. Hard for bulls to argue otherwise when prices has been steadily dropping.

Edited July 9, 2015 by Limwsv

[Soya]

 

From my experience, a substantial percentage of people buy cars irrationally.

 

 

 

Ahemmm.....dun tok abt our hantu RadX liddat can or not?

 

Wif COE dropping, it's time for him to change underwear again.........

[RadX]

 

Ahemmm.....dun tok abt our hantu RadX liddat can or not?

 

Wif COE dropping, it's time for him to change underwear again.........

 

 

eh....

[Soya]

 

 

eh....

 

 

u mean change underwear oredi ah?

[Lala81]

 

Yes, we are seeing the support level hovering around 50K - 55K. Remember, car dealers suck up most of the demand that would have supported the 55K - 60K by scaring them into buying early between Feb - May. My bearish arguments with folks here started when COE is 67K, which they think will be sustained forever even with an increasing supply.

 

Also, bearish sentiments breds more bearish sentiments. That's why the bulls are trying to halt the rout. If you have 60K now, and you can buy a new car. Would you spent it immediately or wait another 3 months to buy at 50K? If your answer is buy now, I have a property agent to recommend to you. He will be so happy if you buy a property from him now.

 

As for your experiences with rational/irrational people. It has zero bearings on the market. Market has been going down regardless of your experiences. That tells me that market is rational and is not spending at this current level.

 

As you whether you care or not, again that has no bearing. I only care to explain to any bulls and those sitting on the fences that current market is unsustainable. Bears are out on the prowl. Bulls will be challenged on posting. Especially senseless bulls. Hard for bulls to argue otherwise when prices has been steadily dropping.

 

Haha ok, bear, have your time in the sun.

Why don't you actually write for some magazine like Torque or ST column instead of wasting your talents here analysing the COE trend? I think your talents are wasted.

 

Cheers.

[Rainyday]

Any research on Taxi? Since the population of taxi is getting more, and has short lifespan of 8 years before scrap.

[BobbyTan_74287]

Hi, kindly allow me to post my question:

 

If dealers are predicting softening of the coe market in the near future, wouldn't it make more sense for them to bid in the later months even though they may have just collected the order?

 

Case example:

A relative just booked for a Cat A car with a PI last Saturday, delivery around Sep/Oct and rebate set at 55K for one bid guaranteed coe.

Say base on the above facts, PI have buffered 15K profit base on that rebate level.

They have entered into yesterday's bidding and managed to secure coe at 58.7K, which means earning 3.7K less. Why the hurry when delivery is much later???

If they were to enter in Aug, whereby say if coe softens to 50K, they would still have maintained their 15K profit even after rebate of 5K, both sides achieve a win-win situation...

 

Any logical explanations for the above? Thanks.

No one will know what is the next COE - whether up or down. PI is not AD and not big enough to influence the COE price. So it is safer to secure the COE now. Anyway it is only different of 3.7k whereby the PI still can absorbed. Besides the COE valid for 6 months and so PI got enough time to import the car in and deliver. PI may ask your relative to pay downpayment first and this will help PI with their cashflow planning.

[Spurman]

New bmw 528 no 200k no talk. Lol

[yo2020]

 

_{When COE was around $57K in Feb, the Altis classic cost $102,888.}

_{When COE was $61K in Jun, the Altis classic cost $118,888.}

_{With the latest COE, the Altis classic will be price at around $115,888 - $116,888.}

 

_{If compare to Feb COE, the different is only about $2K but the price of Altis is raised by more than $10K. Think had to wait long long for $99.9K Altis.}

 

BM has jz released the new price list:

 

a) Altis $112,888, dropped $6k in response to Cat A dropped $2.3k!? COE Rebate dropped $3k to $51k.

b) Camry $143,888, dropped $9k in response to Cat B dropped $6k!? COE Rebate dropped $5k to $57k.

 

good signs... rem don't rush in if can wait...

[Kusje]

 

BM has jz released the new price list:

 

a) Altis $112,888, dropped $6k in response to Cat A dropped $2.3k!? COE Rebate dropped $3k to $51k.

b) Camry $143,888, dropped $9k in response to Cat B dropped $6k!? COE Rebate dropped $5k to $57k.

 

good signs... rem don't rush in if can wait...

 

This is for guaranteed coe?

[yo2020]

 

This is for guaranteed coe?

 

based on cheapest model, non-guaranteed pckg, but b4 rebate for in-house finance n insurance.

 

[Twinrongs]

 

BM has jz released the new price list:

 

a) Altis $112,888, dropped $6k in response to Cat A dropped $2.3k!? COE Rebate dropped $3k to $51k.

b) Camry $143,888, dropped $9k in response to Cat B dropped $6k!? COE Rebate dropped $5k to $57k.

 

good signs... rem don't rush in if can wait...

 

The last time COE was at $57K in Feb2015, Altis was selling at $102K.

Now COE is $58K but Altis is selling at $112K ?!?!?

 

Does it mean COE must drop to $48K for Altis to be selling at $102K again???

 

Any insight from the COE experts? Thanks

[Ivan_06]

 

The last time COE was at $57K in Feb2015, Altis was selling at $102K.

Now COE is $58K but Altis is selling at $112K ?!?!?

 

Does it mean COE must drop to $48K for Altis to be selling at $102K again???

 

Any insight from the COE experts? Thanks

If no one buy Toyota, prices will drop. Elantra is selling at $88,999 for basic version and was the old price list.. Go for korean makes.. Let BM suck thumb

[Enye]

if you can do without a car, wait by all means and time your preferred entry

 

but if you really can do without a car, why not continue to do without one since you can save lots of money from car dis-ownership

 

as for the rest whose cars have yet to reach end of life but cannot do without a car, just wait lor

 

but don't assume ADs going to continue giving current high overtrades to your old cars

 

the COE price drop has to be significant from current levels to get meaningful savings

 

that said, don't mistake me for a bull, i don't wish to be mauled by bears

 

Edited July 9, 2015 by Enye

[Karu]

Waiting.... For CatB to breach 50K.... I know many are also in my shoes.

[Limwsv]

 

Haha ok, bear, have your time in the sun.

Why don't you actually write for some magazine like Torque or ST column instead of wasting your talents here analysing the COE trend? I think your talents are wasted.

 

Cheers.

 

Alamak, you insult me....ask me to become a cheap writer when I thought I am impressing sunday and all with my brilliant analysis and acerbic wit.

 

See, here's my secret plan. Show off my ability to do data research and analysis. Attract some big boss to offer me an impossible to turn down deal to join him. I am very very cheap, only need to pay me $20K a month salary.

 

Oops! The secret is out.

 

The last time COE was at $57K in Feb2015, Altis was selling at $102K.

Now COE is $58K but Altis is selling at $112K ?!?!?

 

Does it mean COE must drop to $48K for Altis to be selling at $102K again???

 

Any insight from the COE experts? Thanks

 

COE experts only good with COE, otherwise why call COE experts.

 

What you need is car price expert. I don't see any around here leh.

 

PS : Come on, just do your own homework. OMV of Altis is known, PARF and all other cost is known. BM is known to take at least 15K margin per Altis. You sum them up yourself with COE lor.

 

Any price lower than that is as my ex-school principal says, "at my discretion".

Edited July 9, 2015 by Limwsv