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2015 Dec, 2nd COE Bidding Exercise


yo2020
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should drop below $50K after CNY

 

yup, agree, traditionally, after CNY, car sales will go down... anyone wanted to buy would have bought b4 CNY/ Xmas...

When SG$1 = US$2.

 

lol... then really got to wait long long liao....

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Actually not surprising result lah... like many already said, by next year, the "SG_" plate will slowly reaching their 10yrs lifespan. Many of the SG_ owner buying their B&B car at 45K to 60K mark during that time (COE at around 10K). And best of all, with 0 downpayment and 10 yrs loan, any tom dick and harry with 2K gross pay can buy a car.

 

Unless these group of people is now earning 1.5x more than  from 10 yrs ago (which is around 5K). Otherwise, they will have to give up driving. When COE supply increase and demand reduced(real demand! not wish), the COE price will go down.

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So fast drop below 50K?

 

One year has 12 mth, 24 bids. Have to thank yoyo for starting 24 'Do you think this round is green or red?' Many champion predictors came, how many can unabashedly admit they manage to get more than 20 times wrong? 

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What is worrying is the deflationary pressure brought along by the economic slowdown including our housing asset prices n wage growth. A lot dun see the big picture and only adopt the myopic view of a crash in coe so that they can buy the cars cheaply. Hypothetically, if coe dropped to less than 10k due to prolonged economic downturn, will they be bothered more with job security rather than cheap car purchase upfront? Just looking at things from another perspective. 1 cent.

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What happen to all the bulls? All gone on holidays?

Yup,where the he'll all of them,one I ask him 2 times where his 60k cat A for 2015,till now boh sound n still want to say yr graph/charts....gueh beh sai
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Turbocharged

Heard that there will be a revision of the regulations of 50% down payment next year, can anyone verify this?

 

I hope its revised to 100% downpayment no loan then COE confirm plunge.

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Heard that there will be a revision of the regulations of 50% down payment next year, can anyone verify this?

Revision to what eh?

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Actually not surprising result lah... like many already said, by next year, the "SG_" plate will slowly reaching their 10yrs lifespan. Many of the SG_ owner buying their B&B car at 45K to 60K mark during that time (COE at around 10K). And best of all, with 0 downpayment and 10 yrs loan, any tom dick and harry with 2K gross pay can buy a car.

 

Unless these group of people is now earning 1.5x more than  from 10 yrs ago (which is around 5K). Otherwise, they will have to give up driving. When COE supply increase and demand reduced(real demand! not wish), the COE price will go down.

 

the SGP income statistic published by the dept of statistics shows that average household income increased by 38% over the last 5 years. Average household income was $10.5k as of mid 2015. One may attribute the high average income to the rich are earning a lot more than the poor, but the median household income is also at a remarkable $8.3k, that is to say that most of the household are making about $8.3K per month. The statistic is good enough to argue that there are enough household  could afford to buy new car, at least when the price is at a level that they are willing to pay.

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Actually not surprising result lah... like many already said, by next year, the "SG_" plate will slowly reaching their 10yrs lifespan. Many of the SG_ owner buying their B&B car at 45K to 60K mark during that time (COE at around 10K). And best of all, with 0 downpayment and 10 yrs loan, any tom dick and harry with 2K gross pay can buy a car.

 

Unless these group of people is now earning 1.5x more than  from 10 yrs ago (which is around 5K). Otherwise, they will have to give up driving. When COE supply increase and demand reduced(real demand! not wish), the COE price will go down.

I guess these group of people either renewed their current SG_ car or turned to buy used car. Looks like SG_ plate car for SGA, think already completely de-registered by now, and now already moved on to SGB & SGC car plate?!

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Heard that there will be a revision of the regulations of 50% down payment next year, can anyone verify this?

 

Many dealers are working around the official 50% to 60% loan limit imposed by MAS in 2013 by offering creative car leasing and other "schemes". KBW can score points by re-imposing these existing rules and COE demand and prices will drop automatically without doing anything else

 

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the SGP income statistic published by the dept of statistics shows that average household income increased by 38% over the last 5 years. Average household income was $10.5k as of mid 2015. One may attribute the high average income to the rich are earning a lot more than the poor, but the median household income is also at a remarkable $8.3k, that is to say that most of the household are making about $8.3K per month. The statistic is good enough to argue that there are enough household  could afford to buy new car, at least when the price is at a level that they are willing to pay.

 

Sorry people, I really hate this kind of generic sounding statements that make it whatever way the author wants to go.  

 

To better show what's happening, am posting those annublis horribilis graphs that most hate.  This clearly shows the state of capability of earning as spread across the entire population.  No wishy washy median, average and whatever trotted out.

 

Up to you to agree/disagree with the modeling.

 

2z5n6aa.png

Edited by Limwsv
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To celebrate this Christmas n the dip in the COE...I rolled out 2 new cars from showrooms - a Beemer n a "I roll".

 

I must say that volvo is very true to the real McCoy with very bad turning radius...keep hitting objects.

post-163127-0-45214100-1450888127_thumb.jpg

post-163127-0-23814000-1450888142_thumb.jpg

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the SGP income statistic published by the dept of statistics shows that average household income increased by 38% over the last 5 years. Average household income was $10.5k as of mid 2015. One may attribute the high average income to the rich are earning a lot more than the poor, but the median household income is also at a remarkable $8.3k, that is to say that most of the household are making about $8.3K per month. The statistic is good enough to argue that there are enough household  could afford to buy new car, at least when the price is at a level that they are willing to pay.

 

statistic? do you know how these numbers are derived? Its iNCLUSIVE of Employer CPF, BEFORE deduction of employee contribution! I guess you cant buy a car using CPF rite? unless you are telling me that the Gov have recently change the rule which I dunno...

 

If you deduct of 37% from the 8.3K how much do you get? and not to forget, we are talking about household income, not individual income.

 

And as you have pointed out, average income ONLY icrease by 38% for the last 5 yrs while car priced increased more than 100% compare to 10 yrs ago. Guess its a simple math to compare...

I guess these group of people either renewed their current SG_ car or turned to buy used car. Looks like SG_ plate car for SGA, think already completely de-registered by now, and now already moved on to SGB & SGC car plate?!

 

Yup, most likely to be the case, COE renewal could be possible as well but I guess its more for 5 yrs renewal rather than 10 yrs...

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the SGP income statistic published by the dept of statistics shows that average household income increased by 38% over the last 5 years. Average household income was $10.5k as of mid 2015. One may attribute the high average income to the rich are earning a lot more than the poor, but the median household income is also at a remarkable $8.3k, that is to say that most of the household are making about $8.3K per month. The statistic is good enough to argue that there are enough household could afford to buy new car, at least when the price is at a level that they are willing to pay.

Singapore households are more clustered than elsewhere where the concept of household is applied, thus inflating the figure of household income.

 

In Europe or us, it is exceeding difficult to find a working adult living with his or her parents. Here, we have son daughter or even son in law and daughter in law all under one roof.

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