2016 Jan, 1st COE Bidding Exercise

[tenyawph]

Everyone will be watching out for LTA's announcement for the number of COE released for the next quarter.  More COEs expected!

[Axela72]

Actually the last few coe result are clear signs that COE is dropping.

 

I'm expecting to see a 5digit drop in COE by April.

 

And of course those who claim that coe will not drop, they usually support their claim base on " aiya PAP blah blah blah" hear also sian

Coe sure drop but car price remain the same. Dealer huat ah....,

[Kia7200]

Coe sure drop but car price remain the same. Dealer huat ah....,

Every time when coe drop, I see the price of the car drop too.

[Loo]

Actually the last few coe result are clear signs that COE is dropping.

 

I'm expecting to see a 5digit drop in COE by April.

 

And of course those who claim that coe will not drop, they usually support their claim base on " aiya PAP blah blah blah" hear also sian

It's a bidding system so the whole theory is that higher bidder wins. As long as the economy don't go into recession or financial crisis or SARS(similar). Won't think the drop will be big. Somehow people will go in to support at the levels that they feel comfortable with. If Coe don't drop with the excess supply by apr 2016. It will in fact force the coe up agsin when people believe that the drop won't be forthcoming n commit anyways as they don't see the light at end of tunnel.

 

If Coe really drop to 8k, I think you should be more worried about job security rather than comitting a car. That's disastrous times for Singapore as a whole.

[Axela72]

In another words, coe drop aka rice bowl broke. Thanks to those that hope coe drop low low

 

If Coe really drop to 8k, I think you should be more worried about job security rather than comitting a car. That's disastrous times for Singapore as a whole.

 

[Wt_know]

Actually the last few coe result are clear signs that COE is dropping.

 

I'm expecting to see a 5digit drop in COE by April.

 

And of course those who claim that coe will not drop, they usually support their claim base on " aiya PAP blah blah blah" hear also sian

i believe you ... coe should drop to $30k-ish

time to change car

Edited December 31, 2015 by Wt_know

[tenyawph]

If COE price drops too low, then those who bought at high prices during 2011 to 2013 can scrap their cars early, get some money back, and then top up a few thousand dollars, buy back the same car model again, or a different one.  My friend is waiting to do that, if this happens, as he is not too satisfied with his current car.

[Wondertree]

It's a bidding system so the whole theory is that higher bidder wins. As long as the economy don't go into recession or financial crisis or SARS(similar). Won't think the drop will be big. Somehow people will go in to support at the levels that they feel comfortable with. If Coe don't drop with the excess supply by apr 2016. It will in fact force the coe up agsin when people believe that the drop won't be forthcoming n commit anyways as they don't see the light at end of tunnel.

 

If Coe really drop to 8k, I think you should be more worried about job security rather than comitting a car. That's disastrous times for Singapore as a whole.

Unemployment rate in Singapore stayed at 2~3% even in 2008 when coe hovered about $10k. That's far from a worrying figure. In fact a lot of people hooted and huat-ed due to unexciting car prices and property market during that time.

[gixer1000]

Btw just curios, now is SKX simi number? By mid next month should be SKZ???

 

SE registered for me yesterday and received SKX87### series..   should be SKZ in another 2 weeks?

 

FYI, can check the latest series available on one motoring website:

https://vrl.lta.gov.sg/lta/vrl/action/pubfunc?ID=EnquireHighestSysNo

[Kia7200]

i believe you ... coe should drop to $30k-ish

time to change car

I'm hoping it will drop to ard $25 then I buy new car....

[tenyawph]

SE registered for me yesterday and received SKX87### series..   should be SKZ in another 2 weeks?

 

FYI, can check the latest series available on one motoring website:

https://vrl.lta.gov.sg/lta/vrl/action/pubfunc?ID=EnquireHighestSysNo

It has now reached a point that the letter will be changed in almost every month.   The SL series will replace the SG series (whose letter changed in each month, starting from Nov 2005 to Nov 2007) from Feb 2016 till Dec 2017, about 2 years.

 

Then it will slow down a bit for the SM series, taking a slightly longer time to replace the SJ series. 

[Tohto]

Cat A down $1-2k

CAT B up $2-3k

[flashbang]

Unemployment rate in Singapore stayed at 2~3% even in 2008 when coe hovered about $10k. That's far from a worrying figure. In fact a lot of people hooted and huat-ed due to unexciting car prices and property market during that time.

 

What matters is whether you still have your job, not about the general unemployment rate in SG. In 2008 those who worked in banks were crapping their pants. Those in other industries probably did slightly better. Unemployment rate in SG is currently also at 2%, does that mean COE is severely overpriced and should drop to 10k?

 

Also, that was the period of COE feasting when COE supply was at a high.

 

Sum of Cat A,B,E

2007 = 104k

2008 = 92k

2009 = 63k

...

2013 = 22k

2014 = 36k

 

With this sort of supply, if COE were to drop back to 10k, that would mean much more severe economic conditions as compared to 2008.

[Wondertree]

What matters is whether you still have your job, not about the general unemployment rate in SG. In 2008 those who worked in banks were crapping their pants. Those in other industries probably did slightly better. Unemployment rate in SG is currently also at 2%, does that mean COE is severely overpriced and should drop to 10k?

 

Also, that was the period of COE feasting when COE supply was at a high.

 

Sum of Cat A,B,E

2007 = 104k

2008 = 92k

2009 = 63k

...

2013 = 22k

2014 = 36k

 

With this sort of supply, if COE were to drop back to 10k, that would mean much more severe economic conditions as compared to 2008.

What I was trying to point out is that coe price is not an indicator of job security, at least not a good one. What you are rebutting is a straw man who supports the theory.

 

On a side note, whether you still have your job is totally related to general unemployment rate, ceteris peribus. Macro to micro sort of stuff.

[Throttle2]

If COE price drops too low, then those who bought at high prices during 2011 to 2013 can scrap their cars early, get some money back, and then top up a few thousand dollars, buy back the same car model again, or a different one. My friend is waiting to do that, if this happens, as he is not too satisfied with his current car.

Easier said than done for many people who are short of cash to begin with.

Regulations are tighter than before.

Edited January 1, 2016 by Throttle2

[macrosszero]

I feel that COE prices taking a dive reflect consumer confidence more than actual economic performance or unemployment rates. When times are bad, people are less likely to purchase big ticket items - if job security is a concern, or your investments aren't paying dividends, you are less likely to drop 40-50k in cash for downpayment on a depreciating asset like a car and further sign yourself up for around 1k of monthly financial commitment for the next 5 years. 

 

This current measure of increasing loan restrictions has already ruled out many marginal car owners, who are now looking at a particular segment of the market that consists of cars with low COE life left, or exorbitant lease schemes. Their role in the market is to provide the less marginal car owners/upgraders a decent value for their car trade ins. 

 

The want for car remains, but I have to say that the loan restrictions are probably the best thing out of the slew of half-@rsed policies that LTA attempted to roll out in the past years, with the deplorable horsepower ruling as the flagship. 

[Imac]

Easier said than done for many people who are short of cash to begin with.

Regulations are tighter than before.

Regulations are tighten...but you still can drive away brand new car with $8888, 0% or 10% downpayment.

 

Edited January 1, 2016 by Imac

[Ahbengdriver]

with a recent drop of COE, many buyer whom can't endure will come. This might push up cost of COE in the next bidding

I suspect too.  My few neighbours are already planning to get their cars at the coming auto-show.  The COE wont spike up big time but I suspect it will inch up because of this event.