Private Property prices......still up or down? Part II

[Banz86]

https://www.99.co/blog/singapore/executive-condominiums-ec-launches-2019-2020/

Executive condominiums: Are upcoming ECs in 2019/2020 worth the wait?

Oct 3, 2018

 

 

All the ECs are located far from the city area. I will consider the Anchorvale and Canberra Walk EC.

[Acemundo]

Just for curiosity, I did a quick analysis on the top 5 losses based on the ones you shown above.

 

The question in my mind is can we see the problem even before the buyers buy those units?  The top 3 losses actually kept their unit for 11 years and still had to go through quite a large loss.  

 

Look at the table below and draw your own conclusion. Look at the premium that they paid when they bought. Avg $psf simply takes all the condos in that district (FH and LH)

 

top5losses.jpg

 

This is just a very surface analysis. If I go into more  numbers, I am  pretty sure the other numbers will flagged out the same level of risk that these buyers are taking. 

 

Now, just for discussion sake, why did the 4th unit (Rhapsody at Mount E) lose money despite a pretty logical buy?

 

With more new launches coming up soon, buyers really need to do their homework and use some data to support their buying decision.

 

yes, problem can be identified before the purchase.  most times it has to do with the premium pricing that developers charged.  the 2nd factor is due to the location.  if we have glanced in such losers' chart long enough, we will realise certain locations' condos always prop up  this section of the charts.  the Hillier actually fuflills both conditions - premium pricing by developer (far east, as always the case with their properties) and location.  

 

while hillview/upper bukit timah may not be a very remote location and surprises many why its location is dragging down the potential for gains, the fact is that area :-

 

1) has a deluge of condos

2) is poorer cousins to/marginalised by the bukit timah area condos

3) congested traffic conditions

 

an area with even worse potential for condo capital gains is the loyang/changi area.  i think the hedges park in that precinct is also featured as one of the top loser.  i have never heard of anyone making gains from buying/selling condos in that area especially when they bought from developer and haven't hold it for very long...one mcf kaki brother bought hedges park first hand and stuck with it because he couldn't sold it for profit despite not purchasing at the all time high price index.

 

i have a friend who made gains on hillview condo though despite buying first hand.  but he bought it 2002 and held it ill today and had the benefit of 2 property bullruns in 2007 and 2011

Edited October 5, 2018 by Acemundo

[Mkl22]

yes, problem can be identified before the purchase.  most times it has to do with the premium pricing that developers charged.  the 2nd factor is due to the location.  if we have glanced in such losers' chart long enough, we will realise certain locations' condos always prop up  this section of the charts.  the Hillier actually fuflills both conditions - premium pricing by developer (far east, as always the case with their properties) and location.  

 

while hillview/upper bukit timah may not be a very remote location and surprises many why its location is dragging down the potential for gains, the fact is that area :-

 

1) has a deluge of condos

2) is poorer cousins to/marginalised by the bukit timah area condos

3) congested traffic conditions

 

an area with even worse potential for condo capital gains is the loyang/changi area.  i think the hedges park in that precinct is also featured as one of the top loser.  i have never heard of anyone making gains from buying/selling condos in that area especially when they bought from developer and haven't hold it for very long...

 

totally agree with you on Hillview, dairy farm area and Loyang condos.

 

[Kklim]

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/property/thomson-view-fails-in-fourth-bid-to-sell-en-bloc

 

4th try...

 

The land plot is very big so not many developers can afford.

[Wind30]

No property owner will like higher loan charges due to interest rates.

 

However, a positive take from this is our deposits in the banks will now attract higher interest rates than before.

 

Higher rates also signal that the economy is healthy. In such an instance, should prices be heading south?

Positive take? U do know that is a huge negative on property price. Rising interest rates has nothing to do with affordability. It's about where people will invest their money... I explain so many times in the past. To lazy to explain now... now its time to see for real.

[therock]

yes, problem can be identified before the purchase. most times it has to do with the premium pricing that developers charged. the 2nd factor is due to the location. if we have glanced in such losers' chart long enough, we will realise certain locations' condos always prop up this section of the charts. the Hillier actually fuflills both conditions - premium pricing by developer (far east, as always the case with their properties) and location.

 

while hillview/upper bukit timah may not be a very remote location and surprises many why its location is dragging down the potential for gains, the fact is that area :-

 

1) has a deluge of condos

2) is poorer cousins to/marginalised by the bukit timah area condos

3) congested traffic conditions

 

an area with even worse potential for condo capital gains is the loyang/changi area. i think the hedges park in that precinct is also featured as one of the top loser. i have never heard of anyone making gains from buying/selling condos in that area especially when they bought from developer and haven't hold it for very long...one mcf kaki brother bought hedges park first hand and stuck with it because he couldn't sold it for profit despite not purchasing at the all time high price index.

 

i have a friend who made gains on hillview condo though despite buying first hand. but he bought it 2002 and held it ill today and had the benefit of 2 property bullruns in 2007 and 2011

So what do you think of the Pasir Panjang or haw par mrt area?

[Acemundo]

So what do you think of the Pasir Panjang or haw par mrt area?

 

actually i don't like pasir panjang area for sure when choosing my own place to stay.  the last impression i had that put me off was the roads there are largely single lane width and painful for driver like me when we happen to be driving behind a bus.

 

nevertheless, i do recognise it does have some advantages, primarily of rental properties, to being near to Maplecity, Alexandra Distripark, South Buona vista although i would take care not to comment too much due to my lack of  exposure to that area's condos

[Showster]

Interest rates were rock bottom through 2013-2016, but demand still faltered.

 

Interest rates rose from 2017-2018, and so did the prices, until Govt intervention.

 

What these tell us is that prices are quite independent of interest rates. Rising interest rates can meet rising prices and dipping interest rates can meet dipping prices just as likely.

 

"Ideally, buy when both interest rates and home prices are low. If that’s not possible, calculate both short- and long-term costs of a lower interest rate versus a lower purchase price. When the numbers make the most sense, make your move."

Read more: House Price Vs. Interest Rate: Which Is More Important? https://www.investopedia.com/mortgage/mortgage-rates/house-price-vs-interest-rate/#ixzz5T21kkbwX 

 

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/mortgages-real-estate/08/interest-rates-affect-property-values.asp

 

Positive take? U do know that is a huge negative on property price. Rising interest rates has nothing to do with affordability. It's about where people will invest their money... I explain so many times in the past. To lazy to explain now... now its time to see for real.

 

Edited October 5, 2018 by Showster

[Victor68]

yes, problem can be identified before the purchase. most times it has to do with the premium pricing that developers charged. the 2nd factor is due to the location. if we have glanced in such losers' chart long enough, we will realise certain locations' condos always prop up this section of the charts. the Hillier actually fuflills both conditions - premium pricing by developer (far east, as always the case with their properties) and location.

 

while hillview/upper bukit timah may not be a very remote location and surprises many why its location is dragging down the potential for gains, the fact is that area :-

 

1) has a deluge of condos

2) is poorer cousins to/marginalised by the bukit timah area condos

3) congested traffic conditions

 

an area with even worse potential for condo capital gains is the loyang/changi area. i think the hedges park in that precinct is also featured as one of the top loser. i have never heard of anyone making gains from buying/selling condos in that area especially when they bought from developer and haven't hold it for very long...one mcf kaki brother bought hedges park first hand and stuck with it because he couldn't sold it for profit despite not purchasing at the all time high price index.

 

i have a friend who made gains on hillview condo though despite buying first hand. but he bought it 2002 and held it ill today and had the benefit of 2 property bullruns in 2007 and 2011

I am not sure i can agree with you on all 3 points raised. Central and east are also 'deluge' with condos or even more. I see thousands coming onboard in the next few months. Where else in singapore road is the most congested? Just cou t the ERP you have to pay you know liao.

 

The only point i can agree is the poor cousin. Bukit timah is segregated into a few segments. This is a fact. So it is something people has to do their homework.

[Acemundo]

I am not sure i can agree with you on all 3 points raised. Central and east are also 'deluge' with condos or even more. I see thousands coming onboard in the next few months. Where else in singapore road is the most congested? Just cou t the ERP you have to pay you know liao.

 

The only point i can agree is the poor cousin. Bukit timah is segregated into a few segments. This is a fact. So it is something people has to do their homework.

 

bro, there is definitely a huge difference in density of houses, zoning/housing of buildings as well as density of cars (cars per surface area unit of road) with those other areas you cited.  i don't have enough data to cite because i don't work in the ura but as i drive past on regular basis and have lived near for decent number of years, i can attest to it from my personal assessment of these factors.  anyhow the dissected factors i cited collectively contributed to my point of the low appreciation potential for condos in such areas. even if you agree only with one factor i cited, it doesn't debunk the entire point. for example if the hypothesis is that a person who drinks alcohol, sleeps little and drives fast cars is likely to get into accident, illustrating a case of another person who sleeps little, drives fast car and drinks alcohol yet didn't get into accident, is not enough to debunk the hypothesis.

 

i can accept your differing opinion but i still stand by my overall assessment of appreciation potential of condos in these areas.

Edited October 5, 2018 by Acemundo

[therock]

Hillview is cheap for a good reason.

But if all you want to do is get a home to stay, there are nice options.

A friend just bought a place there, FH, a view of a green field and the hill, good facilities and a quiet area.

Not too near the trains and such, but it only cost 1200psf for a 10 yr old place.

Fits her budget and lifestyle well.

[Acemundo]

Hillview is cheap for a good reason.

But if all you want to do is get a home to stay, there are nice options.

A friend just bought a place there, FH, a view of a green field and the hill, good facilities and a quiet area.

Not too near the trains and such, but it only cost 1200psf for a 10 yr old place.

Fits her budget and lifestyle well.

 

agreed.  i have nothing against hillview condos or against people buying hillview condos for own stay.  in fact i have quite a few friends or colleagues staying or buying hillview condos.  one even had 1 unit for own stay and another unit for rental.  but both units are resale units he bought.  this discussion started because another mcfer asked in the earlier post, whether there are some pointers buyers could have considered so as to avoid suffering losses in buying a condo they resell later.

[Icemaiden]

yes, problem can be identified before the purchase. most times it has to do with the premium pricing that developers charged. the 2nd factor is due to the location. if we have glanced in such losers' chart long enough, we will realise certain locations' condos always prop up this section of the charts. the Hillier actually fuflills both conditions - premium pricing by developer (far east, as always the case with their properties) and location.

 

while hillview/upper bukit timah may not be a very remote location and surprises many why its location is dragging down the potential for gains, the fact is that area :-

 

1) has a deluge of condos

2) is poorer cousins to/marginalised by the bukit timah area condos

3) congested traffic conditions

 

an area with even worse potential for condo capital gains is the loyang/changi area. i think the hedges park in that precinct is also featured as one of the top loser. i have never heard of anyone making gains from buying/selling condos in that area especially when they bought from developer and haven't hold it for very long...one mcf kaki brother bought hedges park first hand and stuck with it because he couldn't sold it for profit despite not purchasing at the all time high price index.

 

i have a friend who made gains on hillview condo though despite buying first hand. but he bought it 2002 and held it ill today and had the benefit of 2 property bullruns in 2007 and 2011

It’s all timing right? Had you bought a Hillview condo at 400psfin 2007 and sold in 2018 at 1200psf, it would be a 3x return. Property is about entry at the right time. It so happens that many HILLVIEW condos were launched in 1998 during one of the peaks. But had you entered in 2003-2007 in this area and saw the potential while others are bashing the area, the returns would be fantastic. Remember it’s about buying VALUE and under valued assets. Don’t just chase areas based on popularity.

 

Units there are also on the large side. So while 1200psf May appear “cheap”, on an average size of 1400sqft, it will still be a substantial investment amount compared to new launches at 700sqft esp those popular micky mouse locations in D15. So absolute quantum may be larger so will price out those looking for Low quantum.

Edited October 5, 2018 by Icemaiden

[Acemundo]

definitely agree and was what is on my mind as well. but remember the discussion started with the mcfer bringing in hillier as one of the example to decipher the reason for loss. i started with saying entry price and far east entry price tends to be high. the next point then i expanded on the location and never intended for it to be more critical reason than entry price which has strong correlation to timing. and remember i also shared about my friend who bought at a good timing.

[Sdf4786k]

Average 1900 PSF. Sold 40% at launch (87/215).

 

https://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2018/10/175114/40-percent-of-mayfair-gardens-sold-over-launch-weekend

 

Weak demand.

no wonder out of the blue I get SMS for mayfair..

 

At least now I know, if I get sms means, bad bad bad.

 

 

Edited October 6, 2018 by Sdf4786k

[Mercs]

https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/new-launches-city-fringe-continue-dominate-sales

New launches in city fringe continue to dominate sales

Oct 6, 2018

 

At Stirling Residences, 435 units out of 530 released have been sold as at Oct 2.

 

At Park Colonial, located on Woodleigh Lane and at the doorstep of the Woodleigh MRT station, 500 units have been snapped up, based on caveats lodged as at Sept 23.

 

The Tre Ver was launched in August. As at Sept 23, 185 units had been sold.

 

More than 300 units at Jadescape on Shunfu Road were sold over the first weekend of its launch (Sept 22 and 23) at an average price of $1,658 psf.

 

On the weekend of Sept 29 and 30, Oxley Holdings launched the 215-unit Mayfair Gardens. At least 88 units had been sold as at Oct 2. The average price of units sold was $1,900 psf.

[Mercs]

https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/8-st-thomas-holds-its-ground

8 St Thomas holds its ground

Oct 6, 2018

 

The ultimate test came when listed Singapore developer Bukit Sembawang Estates previewed 8 St Thomas simultaneously in Hong Kong and Singapore over the weekend of Aug 25 and 26. So far, more than 20 units have been sold, according to the developer. About 70% of the buyers were from Singapore, and the remainder from Hong Kong. Based on caveats lodged, the average price achieved was $3,191 psf.

 

"When I heard the prices achieved, I thought, ‘Wow, more than $3,000 psf!’”

 

Even Bukit Sembawang says it was “heartened” by the response to the project. “Prices averaging above $3,000 psf is encouraging in today’s property market,”

 

The average price achieved at 8 St Thomas has effectively set a new threshold for the St Thomas enclave. A high of $3,400 psf was achieved for an 807 sq ft, two-bedroom unit on the 31st floor that was sold on the first weekend of preview at 8 St Thomas.

 

Prior to the preview of 8 St Thomas, the only time a unit in the St Thomas Walk neighbourhood crossed $3,000 psf was in 2011, when a 591 sq ft unit on the 31st floor of Skypark changed hands for $3,238 psf. Skypark was completed in 2010.

[Mercs]

https://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2018/10/175226/amaras-newton-luxury-project-to-launch-next-week

Amara’s Newton Luxury Project To Launch Next Week

Oct 5, 2018

 

the freehold project comprises only 56 units spread across four five-storey blocks. These consist of one- to two-bedroom apartments and three-bedroom penthouses with unit sizes from 527 sq ft.

 

units will be priced at over $2,400 psf.