Car population exploded between 2006 & 2011

[13177]

its even worse on fri evening aorund orchard area

Not only orchard area, the jams are worse on every road.

[13177]

you will see many cars will be scrap in 2014.

2014 still not that many cars scrap. I would think 2015-2017 will have the most cars scrapped.

Edited January 16, 2013 by 13177

[Taipan49]

2014 still not that many cars scrap. I would think 2015-2017 will have the most cars scrapped.

 

I would have thought the concern is how many of those scrapped cars COEs get renewed.

[Darryn]

I would have thought the concern is how many of those scrapped cars COEs get renewed.

 

Yes - there has been online chatter that some should be held back to "even out the supply" during lean years.

 

I sure hope not - I want the price to fall

[Akula]

Yes - there has been online chatter that some should be held back to "even out the supply" during lean years.

 

I sure hope not - I want the price to fall

 

Think the evening out of supply is more or less given.....

 

Seriously dun think will see a few years of 90,000-100,000 pieces of COE, then followed by 20,000+ for a few years....

 

AND if its done during the boom years, instead of releasing say 90,000 pieces of COE, LTA release say 60,000+/-, keeping rest as "reserves"

 

Will MOST PROB have the effect of not causing prices to crash, & at the same time, reduce the number of cars a bit for that few years, till the reserves are released

 

Logical?

 

 

[Darryn]

Think the evening out of supply is more or less given.....

 

Seriously dun think will see a few years of 90,000-100,000 pieces of COE, then followed by 20,000+ for a few years....

 

AND if its done during the boom years, instead of releasing say 90,000 pieces of COE, LTA release say 60,000+/-, keeping rest as "reserves"

 

Will MOST PROB have the effect of not causing prices to crash, & at the same time, reduce the number of cars a bit for that few years, till the reserves are released

 

Logical?

If I was in LTA I would be looking at it very seriously, a "boom / bust" cycle is not good for anyone.

 

Imagine what will happen if the price slides back to around $40k - all of a sudden in the space of 2 years you will have practically all of the cars in Singapore being changed.

 

That can't be good for anything in the longer term - not least of which you will then see 8 years of famine again.

 

[13177]

I would have thought the concern is how many of those scrapped cars COEs get renewed.

Depends on that year how much is the COE lo. If the COE is $100K, dont think anyone will renew their COE.

[Darryn]

Depends on that year how much is the COE lo. If the COE is $100K, dont think anyone will renew their COE.

 

Again, the price is determined by how high people bid. The government does not set the price - it is an auction where all the COE must be sold, even if only for $1

[Hosaybo]

But problem is people just see what they want to see and blame it on the price

[Dechachng]

Sadly, I thought this is the thinking of people who are from the 3rd world or developing countries...

[Givechance]

Funny thing is motorcycle population in 2012 is around same as 2005. And it's declining. Something is not right with the motorcycle Coe quota numbers.

[Darthrevan]

Sadly, I thought this is the thinking of people who are from the 3rd world or developing countries...

 

what makes u think u are living in a 1st world country?

[Wt_know]

coe price is HIGHLY MANIPULATED by DEALER !!!

one may argue ... if you are not happy can don't buy

but if you need or want a car, you go to check out all the dealers in singapore ... all dealer quote their car based on 100K COE which mean they will BID ... and they will certainly BID 100K because 100K is not from their pocket nor from their margin ... it's buyer paid ... and buyer will not get any cheaper coe because all dealer will bid 100K range

car is sold to you even before coe is bidded which means coe price has been pre-determined ... and dealer will not quote you car without coe

then they will set the coe rebate at $70K ... wahahaha ... it's more or less you will never get any rebate

is this called bidding?

 

Again, the price is determined by how high people bid. The government does not set the price - it is an auction where all the COE must be sold, even if only for $1

Edited January 26, 2013 by Wt_know

[Hosaybo]

dealer bid based on demand. If no one buy, dun think it will stay at that level. to a large extend, gov screwed up on the numbers resulting in high coe today.

 

 

[Wt_know]

yes, dealer bid based on demand

but the price point is determined by the dealer

did dealer ask buyer whether to bid $60k $70k $80k?

no, dealer just tell buyer coe is $90k else go take a walk

 

the best and most transparent coe bidding system is

 

1. ban dealer from bidding. buyer must bid.

2. bid $100k pay $100k ... bid $10k and you are the last lowest accepted bidder ... pay $10k ... it's fair

3. by doing so, used car price must be detached from coe price. ie: used car = 80K + coe $5k (ie: remain 5 years from $10k coe) similarly, used car 80K + $50K coe (remain 5 years) will have no one to buy. then, who dare to bid high coe? richies can bid and we don't care. they can always export the car to get back $50k coe.

 

point 2 and 3 will eliminate the problem of low coe car 2-3 years ago benchmarking with new coe car now.

 

4. do not show the current bidding value

 

if i am not mistaken the coe show the current bidding value is due to the $1 coe ...

by showing the current status ... it forces everyone to bid higher and higher

what's wrong with $1 coe? if the quota is allocated for the month is 500 ... even $1 coe did not increase the quota the quota is fix ... number of new car is 500 ... nothing change

 

but revenue is affected

 

500 x $1 = $500

500 x $100,000 = $50,000,000

 

dealer bid based on demand. If no one buy, dun think it will stay at that level. to a large extend, gov screwed up on the numbers resulting in high coe today.

Edited January 26, 2013 by Wt_know

[Warthog]

1. Ban dealers from bidding?

 

Old debated suggestion. Most buyers just want to know the price and monthly installment of the car, and prefer to leave bidding to the dealers to get for them. If you leave it to buyers, most kiasu buyers will just bid $5-10K above current prices to get their cars asap. "Bottom-fishing" car buyers will just carry on bidding for a long long time.

 

2. Pay as you bid?

The whole system gets very complicated. From $1 COE to $100K COE, for the same car. Banks will have a hard time to finance such venture. Not to mention what is the re-sale price. Imagine the violatility of car prices in Singapore month to month.

 

3. Detaching the COE prices from car prices.

Doesn't work in the resale market. e.g. 5 year old Altis $35,000. Would anyone pay $5,000 more for a COE which is $5000 more than the "benchmark" COE? Market set the prices, and to price resale COE is going to be a tall order.

 

 

In short, solutions have to be simple and easy to administer. But if it is going to cause a new series of problem, I rather stick to a "flawed" system. Anyway, hope to hear some good suggestion from this forum.

 

 

[Wt_know]

1. those who die die want dealer to bid can sign proxy form for dealer to bid. as long as 90% self bid + 10% dealer bid ... dealer has no 100% manipulation of coe price.

 

2. $100K + $1 coe and $100K + $100K coe financing is the same. the car is sold at $100K. coe should be paid cash ! like i said pay coe as you bid. those can only afford $10k cash bid $10k. those sibei rich can bid $100k and can pay cash $100k. if a buyer cannot afford $10k $20k $30k cash for coe ... his financial status is not ready to buy "new" car. then go buy used car. as long as new coe is low, used car would be affordable.

 

3. yeah right it did not work for used car dealer because used car dealer cannot use coe to profit the car. don't tell me car price fluctuate high and low due to coe. even now a camry $70k vs $90k coe already different by $20k

 

i don't see any complication at all

 

anyway, with point 1 and 2 ... it is getting fairer in coe bidding and point 3 need not to be implemented

most importantly is hide coe current status + pay as you bid = it's only moron will bid high.

rich is rich ... they are not moron and they certainly don't want to pay $100k coe

 

1. Ban dealers from bidding?

 

Old debated suggestion. Most buyers just want to know the price and monthly installment of the car, and prefer to leave bidding to the dealers to get for them. If you leave it to buyers, most kiasu buyers will just bid $5-10K above current prices to get their cars asap. "Bottom-fishing" car buyers will just carry on bidding for a long long time.

 

 

 

2. Pay as you bid?

The whole system gets very complicated. From $1 COE to $100K COE, for the same car. Banks will have a hard time to finance such venture. Not to mention what is the re-sale price. Imagine the violatility of car prices in Singapore month to month.

 

3. Detaching the COE prices from car prices.

Doesn't work in the resale market. e.g. 5 year old Altis $35,000. Would anyone pay $5,000 more for a COE which is $5000 more than the "benchmark" COE? Market set the prices, and to price resale COE is going to be a tall order.

 

 

In short, solutions have to be simple and easy to administer. But if it is going to cause a new series of problem, I rather stick to a "flawed" system. Anyway, hope to hear some good suggestion from this forum.

Edited January 26, 2013 by Wt_know

[Wt_know]

1. coe bidding = open (show current status) and highest value of the last accepted bidder set the price

 

2. coe bidding = close (hide current status) and pay as you bid

 

both system is fair. however,

 

system 1 = profit maximisation ... just like sotheby/christie auction ... let one fight another to the highest bidder

 

system 2 = to allocate all coe in the lowest price as possible

 

if there are only 500 coe ... one cannot give the coe to friend, relative, and worst corruption

hence, a bidding is fair. but, one can come up with a solution to make the coe as low as possible and yet still fair and transparent in allocation.

 

to avoid $1 coe bottom fishing (which current many $1 bidder), set the minimum coe at $10k ($1k per year, i think it's fair)

 

at least govt revenue is guaranteed at 500 x $10,000 = $5,000,000 ($5M coe revenue goes to govt coffer)

Edited January 26, 2013 by Wt_know