More COE Next Year (2014) .....

[Mockngbrd]

So many lelong their votes for 40k...

is like that one,we all sluts. House price drop 50% I also vote pap! Edited April 13, 2014 by Mockngbrd

[Sdexxxxd]

So many lelong their votes for 40k...

I think the new equilibrium will be 30-40 k before LTA claw back the quota to keep for future years..

[Vega]

is like that one,we all sluts. House price drop 50% I also vote pap!

 

if house price drop by 50%, a lot will die c0ck standing.......

Edited April 13, 2014 by Vega

[Baal]

Tell these dealers that cutting a few K is no enuf, buyers expect to cut at least $20K to $30K!

iwt, if above numbers are reached, wont be sudden, would be gradual tapering to acheive that.

There are quite a few car owners out there who has plonked large amount of cash or paid cash only. So when they feel the urge to change cars due to whatever frivolous reasons, they simply need to topup some cash to acquire them. To them, they don't bother the best timing to get cheapest coe, rather only whether they feel comfortable at that level. These people have amasses quite a huge safety net so it is only a matter of saving less, unlike those who need to go into dollars and cents to calculate affordability.

 

There are many of such people around. That is why i think unless there is economy downturn, coe will not drop much.

 

oc's friend whom Altis Gen 1 reached the end, scrapped & purchased a Gen2 Altis with 4.5yrs balance coe for 56k, thereabout.

[car138]

So every1 wish Coe to drop below $40K?

 

By then, how much dealer would have cut the car price from current prices?

[Baal]

Actually, they could increase the number of COEs such that though the quota is higher, the actual revenue is the same.

 

Eg, 300 x 80k COE Vs 500 x 50k COE.

 

Recalled that even when I paid for my 14-15k coe, many colleagues in my office still felt that the price was exorbitant. If u add, season parking at office, at home, erp, insur, road tax, etc.

 

Given the above, 50k COE may mean a newer population cars rather than more cars on the road. There would be growth, but defn not like the 05-09 era.

 

And most important, P8P does not copromise the cash cow.

[Quantum]

 

If everyone expects the COE to come down, they will hold the purchase and it will eventually come down. It's a matter of what is the comfort level where most people will chiong and push it up again.

 

I don't understand why in this forum so many ppls expect COE drop, since it's My Car Forum, assume everyone owned car already before joined the forum, why they still invite more and more ppls to become car ownres and tussle with us for the limited traffic facility? what a jam traffic in future!

one reason is you want to change car now

[car138]

If every1 think that more COEs in the future, more will hold their buys to wait for Coe price to drop? Or COE will drop a bit & start to rise again?

[Darryn]

Many people are saying this - but I cannot agree.

 

Think about it carefully

1. CAT A + CAT B COE is pegged to a specific buyer - so there is no "inventory" for the dealer to hold

2. CAT E - Can bid without IC - but how many of these can be in stock?

 

In the last bidding exercise - there were 730 total Cat A + Cat B COE vs 199 CAT E.

 

If you assume that say - 50% of Cat E is being held as a buffer you get 100 Cat E vs 830 for the rest.

 

Remember also - would you rather take a $20k loss on each of those 100 Cat E in stock, or bid the other Cats higher than you need to by even $3k?

 

YOU have to bear in mind - the consumer is paying a TOTAL price for the car - inclusive of COE, so every $$ the dealer bids more than they have to comes directly out of their pockets.

 

 

 

 

 

 

AD will never allow coe to crash landed ... they have high coe inventory to clear.

AD is King ... they can do what they want and when they want

yes, lucky buyer do have a chance to buy on dip but only a few. after the dip, AD will roll the dice and cheong

 

[Darryn]

cash invest $90k and take loan to buy a car with coe $90k is very different hor

 

i see many compare and comment better use $90k for investment than buying a car.

 

$90k invest at 5% return you get $4.5k a year, round figures $90 a week for taxis.

 

Buy car for $90 k must still have outflow like registration, petrol, etc etc.

 

Spend $90 week on taxi, still have the $90k....buy car then have what??

[car138]

Think dealer will try to get rid of Coe going to expire soon bided at higher price. If not, new Coe price drop a lot, their current Coe inventory cannot use as new car price have to sync with lower Coe price. No longer profitable to use them.

[Voodooman]

I think the new equilibrium will be 30-40 k before LTA claw back the quota to keep for future years..

If history is any guide (last shock from harsher financing rule bought down COE only temporarily by 20-30k), I shall not be too optimistic although I think 50k may be possible. There are too many cash rich and wealthy people in Singapore.

[Heartlander]

One very simple tweak LTA can roll out quite easily - pay COE by cash only.

 

That will surely bring down the COE to saner level. And will put a stop to those who can't afford or think they could afford a car.

 

This double whammy with the 50% DP rule will help to bring COE down so that those can afford will not feel a lot of pain, while making it difficult for marginal cases to get a car.

 

For example to buy a brand new Honda Civic:

Now with COE at 70k, it cost $130K --> DP = > 65K

With new rule and COE drop to 50k, it will cost $110k --> DP = > 50k+ 30k = > 80k

 

So the buyer pay less, and those who can afford will be happy. Those who cannot fork out 80k DP simply means they are not ready.

 

But then again, there will still be people who will complain that they have 5 kids and yet cannot afford.

[Astrid]

is like that one,we all sluts. House price drop 50% I also vote pap!

The silent majority will vote for pap when house price INCREASE by 50%.

Majority win liao!

[Astrid]

Actually, they could increase the number of COEs such that though the quota is higher, the actual revenue is the same.

 

Eg, 300 x 80k COE Vs 500 x 50k COE.

 

Nothing to do with revenue lah.

Increase quota and jam the roads for what?

That's not the objective of COE.

And LTA is not Santa Claus to allow more people to own cars.

To do that, more cars have to be de-registered.

Quota release is a zero-sum game + the incremental growth p.a. allowed for.

I don't understand why in this forum so many ppls expect COE drop, since it's My Car Forum, assume everyone owned car already before joined the forum, why they still invite more and more ppls to become car ownres and tussle with us for the limited traffic facility? what a jam traffic in future!

one reason is you want to change car now

Many holding on to problematic cars (e.g. VWs), or nearing 10 years old, so need to buy new car real soon ... or cannot tahan multiple workshop visits any longer!

 

These are the ones that are hoping for COE premia to drop low low :-O

[Astrid]

There are too many cash rich and wealthy people in Singapore.

Yes, many locals don't know what they don't know.

The number of foreigners who have settled in Singapore, who also want to buy/own cars is HUGE!

Many are cash-rich and wealthy.

 

Chinamen are known to have bought Sentosa Cove bungalows with full cash!!!

Ask the top-tier property agents and they will tell you astonishing stories about unimaginable foreign wealth!

[car138]

Yes, many locals don't know what they don't know.

The number of foreigners who have settled in Singapore, who also want to buy/own cars is HUGE!

Many are cash-rich and wealthy.

 

Chinamen are known to have bought Sentosa Cove bungalows with full cash!!!

Ask the top-tier property agents and they will tell you astonishing stories about unimaginable foreign wealth!

The bottom line is coe will not fall?

[Jasonjst]

Yes, many locals don't know what they don't know.

The number of foreigners who have settled in Singapore, who also want to buy/own cars is HUGE!

Many are cash-rich and wealthy.

 

Chinamen are known to have bought Sentosa Cove bungalows with full cash!!!

Ask the top-tier property agents and they will tell you astonishing stories about unimaginable foreign wealth!

 

That is why people have being asking for a separate cat for foreigner .