2015 Dec, 2nd COE Bidding Exercise

[Tigershark1976]

Don't get fooled. COE price is meaningless. What is important is the car price. COE price drop, doesn't mean car price will all drop.

 

yup. Look at 10 yrs ago.. the margin for most bread and butter car is 5K to 15K... now, the margin is higher... if the COE price drop and the dealers increase their margin. Buyer will be LL also...

[Nlatio]

It's below 100k. Typo error la

Madza 3 already selling below 100k... 99k at that.... but showroom car....

Edited December 25, 2015 by Nlatio

[edwin15]

Edwin, while i respect your opinion, but your opinion is all assumptions doesnt make any sense.. its nothing but just personal assumption from you...

 

I meant, in the 1st place, I dont even undestand why those people earning 2K 10 yrs ago were typically people will be in their early to mid 20s and maybe just graduated? you meant its rare to find a person in its 30s, 40s, 50s to make 2K a month 10 yrs ago? ?  I seriously dont see the connection...  

 

 

As for the rest of your points, its again, assumptions and assumptions base on initial points...  , you said that;

 

"while many people do not get a 9.6% increment year on year averaged out for 10 yrs, it is possible that many people earning 2k 10 years ago could get a 9.6% increment year on year averaged out for 10 yrs."

 

So? if you agree that many people do not have such increment, then what is the debate all about? [confused]

 

Bro you are right that its is just my opinion and assumption that those people earning 2k 10 yrs ago will most likely be earning more than 5k now.

 

I have no statistics to show. However, you also have no statistics to show otherwise so we are both just making assumptions.

 

So lets just agree to disagree on this.

 

My main assumption is that of those earning 2k 10 yrs ago, a larger proportion will be young just graduated persons than say vs people in the 5-10k range 10 yrs ago.

 

These persons being at the start of their career will have a larger potential for pay increments vs someone in mid-career.

 

This assumption makes sense if you consider that the starting pay of most graduates 10 yrs ago is in the 2-3k range.

 

Also my point on the above on the 9.6% is just to say that while the total population of income earners might not get a 9.6% average increment yearly averaged per year, the population of income earners earning 2k is a substantially different population and it is possible this smaller population of people can get a 9.6% average increment yearly averaged per year.

[Tigershark1976]

Bro you are right that its is just my opinion and assumption that those people earning 2k 10 yrs ago will most likely be earning more than 5k now.

 

I have no statistics to show. However, you also have no statistics to show otherwise so we are both just making assumptions.

 

So lets just agree to disagree on this.

 

My main assumption is that of those earning 2k 10 yrs ago, a larger proportion will be young just graduated persons than say vs people in the 5-10k range 10 yrs ago.

 

These persons being at the start of their career will have a larger potential for pay increments vs someone in mid-career.

 

This assumption makes sense if you consider that the starting pay of most graduates 10 yrs ago is in the 2-3k range.

 

Also my point on the above on the 9.6% is just to say that while the total population of income earners might not get a 9.6% average increment yearly averaged per year, the population of income earners earning 2k is a substantially different population and it is possible this smaller population of people can get a 9.6% average increment yearly averaged per year.

 

Sorry, i dont make assumption, you can check it out yourself the statistic release by Gov.. what is the ave / median salary 10 yrs ago vs now. Thats y im confident to tell you that its not common to have 150% increment within 10 yrs in the very begining. Its you who make assumption and Im just replying u....

[edwin15]

Sorry, i dont make assumption, you can check it out yourself the statistic release by Gov.. what is the ave / median salary 10 yrs ago vs now. Thats y im confident to tell you that its not common to have 150% increment within 10 yrs in the very begining. Its you who make assumption and Im just replying u....

 

The statistic you have is the average pay increment for all income earners across all salary bands. This is a very different population from income earners earning 2k 10 years ago.

 

The big assumption you are making is that these 2 populations have the same rate of pay increment.

[Axela72]

I also believe COE will drop but your reasoning earlier is not logical lei. How can more scrap car show that ppls cannot afford it? So, less scrap car mean more ppls can afford it?

 

More scrap car meant that car has already or reaching end of life. Their owner either purchase a new one for replacement or bought 2nd car or quit driving. But this will not stop potential new buyer from joining the new force of purchase group.

 

If by Feb, COE is not 40k how?

 

more scrap car do not mean coe will go up. It only show many people cannot afford it. By February 2016, we should see 40k range soon.

 

Edited December 25, 2015 by Axela72

[So_nice]

If feb coe is 40k can renew liao hehe

[Forte3737]

If feb coe is 40k can renew liao hehe

Nice to dream

[Throttle2]

This kind of statement is true but so vague.

 

Like that I can also say if you have 100 mio in your bank account but you don't spend it, its as good as nothing or if you have 100 rolex watches but you do not wear them also as good as nothing.

 

 

At the end of the day, having a paper gain is better than not having any paper gain as you always have the option to monetize.

It isnt vague. It is crystal clear.

 

Yes, you are absolutely correct.

If i give you $100mil and you are not allowed to use it., its as good as nothing.

And thats what i am saying.

Thanks for reconfirming.

 

I also do not disagree that a gain always makes the heart feel better compared to a loss.

But in reality, it has to be monetised or there is not true material impact.

 

And Other than agreeing and reinforcing what i said, what is your point until now?

 

 

[Chucky2007]

Does that imply the best period to buy car is either early (Jan) and late (Dec) part of the year?

U got your forester at latest bidding?

[Jimmy82]

If COE hits 40K, does it make sense for those who buy at 70k to scrap their car immediately?

 

 

For example, the paper value of a 2013 Altis is about 75k. If COE hits 40k, the price of Altis will drop to 80k. It makes sense for one to just scrap and get a new car.

 

Thus the resistance level of 40k COE is likely to be very high.

 

 

I also believe COE will drop but your reasoning earlier is not logical lei. How can more scrap car show that ppls cannot afford it? So, less scrap car mean more ppls can afford it?

 

More scrap car meant that car has already or reaching end of life. Their owner either purchase a new one for replacement or bought 2nd car or quit driving. But this will not stop potential new buyer from joining the new force of purchase group.

 

If by Feb, COE is not 40k how?

Edited December 25, 2015 by Jimmy82

[Axela72]

No. But I get it earlier.  Will be pissed off if get at latest bidding.

 

U got your forester at latest bidding?

 

[Yeshe]

Don't get fooled. COE price is meaningless. What is important is the car price. COE price drop, doesn't mean car price will all drop.

Coe price drop confirm means car price drop. Just self import, u will see big difference

[Blackyv]

If COE hits 40K, does it make sense for those who buy at 70k to scrap their car immediately?

 

 

For example, the paper value of a 2013 Altis is about 75k. If COE hits 40k, the price of Altis will drop to 80k. It makes sense for one to just scrap and get a new car.

 

Thus the resistance level of 40k COE is highly to be very high.

 

 

 

This assumption make sense if that buyer buy with cash.. pay ~130k, drive 3 years, scrap take back 80k and buy a new with that 80k..

 

But if buy with 60% loan, mean not break even yet and if wanna buy new car, have to fork out cash again after taken a huge dep... Siong ..

[Chucky2007]

No. But I get it earlier. Will be pissed off if get at latest bidding.

U changed to Forester XT from NA?

 

When is the collection?

[Axela72]

Agreed.

 

more quote on COE mean more owner start to scrapping their car which can also imply that more buyer will come in from these owner. However, there is no doubt that these owner might decided to let go to continue with their new ride. However, we can't know that exact figure. All comment here are just base on speculation which is just hypothesis that yet to be tested/proven. Nothing wrong with that assumption.

 

However, 1 thing for sure is the cycle of higher COE owner (70 to 90k) has already cross their 5 years usage mark. All their loan have been fully paid and as we know, their cars' warranty has expired. Some reliability issue might start to surface out after 7 years. Time for them to replace their present ride when the COE hit certain level which may be a force to prevent the COE to go below 40k.

 

If COE hits 40K, does it make sense for those who buy at 70k to scrap their car immediately?


For example, the paper value of a 2013 Altis is about 75k. If COE hits 40k, the price of Altis will drop to 80k. It makes sense for one to just scrap and get a new car.

Thus the resistance level of 40k COE is highly to be very high.

 

 

Was intended to but when I read the post on "Watch,' I decided to use the extra 12k to get me a Rolex instead. I think N.A with a Rolex is as good as getting a XT

 

U changed to Forester XT from NA?

When is the collection?

 

[Wondertree]

If COE hits 40K, does it make sense for those who buy at 70k to scrap their car immediately?

 

 

For example, the paper value of a 2013 Altis is about 75k. If COE hits 40k, the price of Altis will drop to 80k. It makes sense for one to just scrap and get a new car.

 

Thus the resistance level of 40k COE is likely to be very high.

 

 

 

This factor has limited contribution to the resistance. One scraped car contribute both a wanting driver and a piece of COE back to the pool. I would say the major resistance would be deflation and increased purchasing power.

[edwin15]

It isnt vague. It is crystal clear.

 

Yes, you are absolutely correct.

If i give you $100mil and you are not allowed to use it., its as good as nothing.

And thats what i am saying.

Thanks for reconfirming.

 

I also do not disagree that a gain always makes the heart feel better compared to a loss.

But in reality, it has to be monetised or there is not true material impact.

 

And Other than agreeing and reinforcing what i said, what is your point until now?