How low will COE go?

[Blackyv]

I got a new car in 2007. In 2009, COE premiums tanked. I was tempted to change car but could not stomach the low trade-in value of my ride. That was with max loan allowed for the new car. Now? You sell your car at a big loss and you have to come out with 40/50% dp.

When COE drops to 30-40-k, how much do you think the dealers will offer for your existing ride?

 

I don't think dealer dare to take in any car right now... their focus is to clear stock asap....

[Leepee]

If this is generally the case, then those existing car owners will have difficulties to trade in and buy a new cars. Usually it's a one- to- one trade in.

Let's see on 13March. The truth will reveal.

 

[

quote name=Blackyv' date='Mar 7 2013, 06:35 AM' post='4793755]

I don't think dealer dare to take in any car right now... their focus is to clear stock asap....

 

[Nav14]

I dunno whether to at or pity those who bought Altis at S$130+K, Civics at > S$160K, etc.

They might be laughing at the rest who had not bought. Highly likely the scenario will turn out to be after a brief fall in COE prices, turn into a double whammy, with COE prices remaining near record levels or may even exceed and with financing so tight. It ultimately depends on COE supply. There are many people out there with enough cash who will adapt to the new scenario and continue supporting high COE prices. The window of oppurtunity might be very brief and that too at only slightly discounted prices.

[Voodooman]

I got a new car in 2007. In 2009, COE premiums tanked. I was tempted to change car but could not stomach the low trade-in value of my ride. That was with max loan allowed for the new car. Now? You sell your car at a big loss and you have to come out with 40/50% dp.

When COE drops to 30-40-k, how much do you think the dealers will offer for your existing ride?

 

07 COE was around 15k, 09 COE was only a few K lower. Anyway, cars less than 3 years old are definitely out of the changing game, I am looking at cars registered from 05 to 06, there are many and their resale value is supported by paper value, I believe most will not take the risk, wait for bumper crop of COE to swap cars only in 15 or 16 if COE drops by 50%. We are talking about a 30-40k savings.

 

I may be wrong and I hope I am but days of 20-30k COE are not likely to come back, unless we hit a severe AFC again.

[Chucky2007]

They might be laughing at the rest who had not bought. Highly likely the scenario will turn out to be after a brief fall in COE prices, turn into a double whammy, with COE prices remaining near record levels or may even exceed and with financing so tight. It ultimately depends on COE supply. There are many people out there with enough cash who will adapt to the new scenario and continue supporting high COE prices. The window of oppurtunity might be very brief and that too at only slightly discounted prices.

Likely scenario is all the AD still bidding high bec got people still buying cars regardless of price of COE

[Spidey10]

If this is generally the case, then those existing car owners will have difficulties to trade in and buy a new cars. Usually it's a one- to- one trade in.

Let's see on 13March. The truth will reveal.

 

[

quote name=Blackyv' date='Mar 7 2013, 06:35 AM' post='4793755]

I don't think dealer dare to take in any car right now... their focus is to clear stock asap....

 

I think it depends on individual and i suspect for those in the group that bought cars in 2004-2006/7 and have fully paid off - they will be the ones most happy if COE drop to <10k.....sell/scrap thier ride and get the $$ and re-look the new/2nd cars....say 5 yrs old and start another cycle...

if a 5 yrs old car drops to 50k, then it won't be too bad on the d/p!!!

 

So, i see there is some advantage for these car owners to change once the COE tank...hehehehhe

Edited March 7, 2013 by Spidey10

[Nav14]

07 COE was around 15k, 09 COE was only a few K lower. Anyway, cars less than 3 years old are definitely out of the changing game, I am looking at cars registered from 05 to 06, there are many and their resale value is supported by paper value, I believe most will not take the risk, wait for bumper crop of COE to swap cars only in 15 or 16 if COE drops by 50%. We are talking about a 30-40k savings.

 

I may be wrong and I hope I am but days of 20-30k COE are not likely to come back, unless we hit a severe AFC again.

The bumper crop expected in 2015 and 2016 to drive down COE prices may not materialise if

a) Govt tweaks the COE supply policy by then whereby the supply is evened out to prevent the drastic dips and increases in COE price. This is highly likely

b) Too much of pent up demand which will build up by then.

c) Economy picks up speed and is in high gear in 2015

d) With economy picking up speed, more highly paid expats arrive.

 

I am thus not hoping for any fall in COE prices in 2015. It may even exceed 100k. But this will make the 2016 elections very interesting.

[HP_Lee]

actually why only rich can afford?

 

middle income can still afford as long as they save for the downpayment... it is all about getting priorities right... no meh?

 

Based on standard financial analysis, is tough on middle income in general. Especially, those with families or planning of old age savings. Not to forget about retire funds.

 

Of course, if you tighten belts you can do it. But that will be a huge lost against one's middle income net worth.

[HP_Lee]

The bumper crop expected in 2015 and 2016 to drive down COE prices may not materialise if

a) Govt tweaks the COE supply policy by then whereby the supply is evened out to prevent the drastic dips and increases in COE price. This is highly likely

b) Too much of pent up demand which will build up by then.

c) Economy picks up speed and is in high gear in 2015

d) With economy picking up speed, more highly paid expats arrive.

 

I am thus not hoping for any fall in COE prices in 2015. It may even exceed 100k. But this will make the 2016 elections very interesting.

 

Yup. This is see on reduction of COE, we those you have pointed out. Is just logical. To add-on, the rich will still continue to buy 2 or more cars. This will be hogging more COEs, while many middle income who have real needs for a car, cannot afford or have to tighten belts in order to got one. Just look at the CAT A. More luxury entry models are taking up CAT A. So how much more of COEs left for others BB cars.

Edited March 7, 2013 by HP_Lee

[Roh96]

yeah can print the certificate and display at windscreen

 

more powerful that country club or Harvard decal

 

I don't wish to rub more salt to the wound. As consolation, they should be happy their car has high paper value than others, and they are the last few enjoying 1.88% for 10 yrs.

[HP_Lee]

yeah can print the certificate and display at windscreen

 

more powerful that country club or Harvard decal

 

That's why Singapore have many rich Singaporeans and Foreigners, as compare to others round the global. Is a matter of time, it will surpass the Swiss.

[Duckduck]

i cant believe pple r still guessing which way coe will go. Let just take a 1 mth break frm this thread n cum back after the dust settled lor...

[HP_Lee]

We will be seeing more loan sharks in no time and more O$$P$$ in HDB estates. [shakehead]

Edited March 7, 2013 by HP_Lee

[HP_Lee]

i cant believe pple r still guessing which way coe will go. Let just take a 1 mth break frm this thread n cum back after the dust settled lor...

 

Well, they maybe still in a denial state.

[RadX]

Well, they maybe still in a denial state.

 

 

And u too,,, pls get lost n learn proper english then come back with proper usage of the language

 

after maybe 10 yrs

[Pureness]

those who took 10 years loan, 4/5/6 years old car still got "substaintial" outstanding loan. if coe drop, use car trade in value also drop.

 

but if your car is 4 yrs old you won't be able to take a 10 yr loan leh

[PorkChong]

how come no result from COE yesterday?

[Wt_know]

i meant those who bought new car 4/5 years ago and if coe tank now they wish to change new car

if they took high loan, they might have outstanding loan ... so it's not easy to settle outstanding loan and also downpayment 40/50 percent for new car as another post mentioned that existing car loan can easily fund new purchase by trading in their current used car

 

but if your car is 4 yrs old you won't be able to take a 10 yr loan leh

Edited March 7, 2013 by Wt_know