More COE Next Year (2014) .....

[Roh96]

don't forget those who wnat to own more than one cars' buyers like me

6 years ago I bought my 1st car at 4k COE, after 5 years I bought my 2nd car at 75k coe,

if really COE drops below 30k, do you believe they will "let it be",

btw, i'm only a general empolyee with average income, more than half Sillyprean richer than me

 

Sustaining 2 cars in this COE climate is not easy. Just COE alone for 2 cars easily cost 140K, this is painful.

[Wyfitms]

 

they are going to control it. but at least the COE quota would be more and more in next few years. In this scenario, ppl tend to wait.

 

now the COE is more than 70k, and we think below 30k is impossible. but how about when the time coe dropped to 50k, would you still think 30k is impossible?

 

Would the govt say no to money?

[Liuels]

 

Would the govt say no to money?

 

 

supply and demand. they are not going to decrease the car population, so they have to release the coe quota. the more cars scrapped, the more quota released, simple.

 

hah, as a "Neutral Newbie", I have used all my quota today

Edited April 24, 2014 by Liuels

[Quantum]

 

they are going to control it. but at least the COE quota would be more and more in next few years. In this scenario, ppl tend to wait.

 

now the COE is more than 70k, and we think below 30k is impossible. but how about when the time coe dropped to 50k, would you still think 30k is impossible?

everything is possible, depends on how govt manipulate,

actually there are big latent demand and pent up demand in car market,

1. recently de-registered car owners, among my acquaintance so far I didn't find any previous car owner who give up to own car after they de-registered their cars ,

2. new buyers, most of they are new couples, increased population,

3. buy 2nd cars, some families feel one car is not enough, plan to buy 2nd or 3rd cars for family members, or upsize car capacity from Sedan to MPV/SUV,

[Powxus]

 

they are going to control it. but at least the COE quota would be more and more in next few years. In this scenario, ppl tend to wait. It seems that the condo price is dropping now, are you going to buy one at this time? Or you would like to wait and see? Same thing.

 

now the COE is more than 70k, and we think below 30k is impossible. but how about when the time coe dropped to 50k, would you still think 30k is impossible?

 

Agree that it will drop. But going by the average number of cars to be scrapped vs the supply we have now, we are looking at 4:1. For it to drop drastically we will have to have supply more than demand. The gov is also hinting that the future should be the use of public transport rather than car, will they allow more cars on the road which is against what they are heading. Maybe before election ... lol

[Quantum]

 

 

supply and demand. they are not going to decrease the car population, so they have to release the coe quota. the more cars scrapped, the more quota released, simple.

 

hah, as a "Neutral Newbie", I have used all my quota today

wah, you joined on 26 Jul 2010, still "Neutral Newbie",

never heard the forum has quota limit for Neutral Newbie

[Powxus]

 

 

supply and demand. they are not going to decrease the car population, so they have to release the coe quota. the more cars scrapped, the more quota released, simple.

 

hah, as a "Neutral Newbie", I have used all my quota today

 

Why is the gov spending billions to build more MRT, buy more buses, taxi to improve public transport, then release more COE to make it cheap ... make sense ?

[Quantum]

 

Agree that it will drop. But going by the average number of cars to be scrapped vs the supply we have now, we are looking at 4:1. For it to drop drastically we will have to have supply more than demand. The gov is also hinting that the future should be the use of public transport rather than car, will they allow more cars on the road which is against what they are heading. Maybe before election ... lol

even for election purpose, they also have to balance two parts' emotion, if they only cater to those who expect more coe to buy cars, they sure lose those who expect less coe to control car population,

Nowadays i believe every motorists should fu*k p8p why realeased so many coe, to cause every roads congestion, always carpark full while shopping, waste our petrol to waiting, waiting...

why they sequeezed so much $$ from motorists' pockets but traffic condition worse than 10 years ago

[Volvobrick]

 

Why is the gov spending billions to build more MRT, buy more buses, taxi to improve public transport, then release more COE to make it cheap ... make sense ?

 

Just keep the date GE 2016 in mind. People must be made to feel happy and hopeful before the GE. From that angle, we can speculate what policies/short term measures the govt will implement. Definitely runaway house/car prices are no-no.

 

Maybe don't release so many COEs in 14-15, but release the bulk in 15-16?

[Civic6228]

 

 

Exactly. Thats why when pple in other cointries read in news that Sporeans can pay $80K for a COE(just the paper) to buy a car ty all thinking Sporeans r all damm blardy rich pple.

 

What ty dun know as the truth is we r all damm poor cos of all these schemes by gharmen to squeeze our money from our pockets.

 

In rerality many of us r damm poor cos of all these methods gharmen uses to squeeze our money out of our pockets .

 

It is about choice isn't it .... there are many Singaporeans whom does not own a car not that they cannot afford it but they choose not to buy a car... they are happy without a car.

 

Don't blame everything on the gahment lah .... we are no poor becos of the gahment but made the choice to buy a car with high COE.

 

Everything has a choice ....

[Wt_know]

i like what you suggest .... shiok ah ... can change car in 2015/16

coe $70k > $50k > $30k > $20k

 

 

Just keep the date GE 2016 in mind. People must be made to feel happy and hopeful before the GE. From that angle, we can speculate what policies/short term measures the govt will implement. Definitely runaway house/car prices are no-no.

 

Maybe don't release so many COEs in 14-15, but release the bulk in 15-16?

 

Edited April 24, 2014 by Wt_know

[Powxus]

 

Just keep the date GE 2016 in mind. People must be made to feel happy and hopeful before the GE. From that angle, we can speculate what policies/short term measures the govt will implement. Definitely runaway house/car prices are no-no.

 

Maybe don't release so many COEs in 14-15, but release the bulk in 15-16?

 

I would agree that there could be exception prior election but it would most likely be moderated price and unlikely very low prices. There are going to be a lot of people eyeing for low COE but do they have so many COE to make everyone happy. We cannot compare COE with housing. For housing it is a basic need and they can always build more till supply is more than demand with no social backlash. For cars, if they are to create supply more than demand scenario, they will likely be creating massive jams everyday on the road which has both social and business impact.

[Koko]

Actually the garment admitted that they made a mistake in calculation during the early day for releasing high quota for COE.

 

Now, they using the same number of scrap car (which they calculated wrongly previously) in the formula for generating the quota for the coming months...

 

I just feel something is not right... I am not expert... or LTY is just following RL foot steps?

 

The above are just my 2 cent worth.

 

I just feel something is not right for increasing the quota just like that. All along I am thinking COE is to control car population, but the JAM is just getting worst nowadays... I don feel any improvement.

[Powxus]

Actually the garment admitted that they made a mistake in calculation during the early day for releasing high quota for COE.

 

Now, they using the same number of scrap car (which they calculated wrongly previously) in the formula for generating the quota for the coming months...

 

I just feel something is not right... I am not expert... or LTY is just following RL foot steps?

 

The above are just my 2 cent worth.

 

I just feel something is not right for increasing the quota just like that. All along I am thinking COE is to control car population, but the JAM is just getting worst nowadays... I don feel any improvement.

 

There is a crawl back factored in the formula to correct the mistake. So the number of cars scrapped will not be equal to the number of COE release.

[Wt_know]

crawl back ... take back some coe

1% annual growth ... add back some coe (assuming 1% x 1,00,000 total vehicle population = additional 10,000 coe)

 

ok la ... huat ah

Edited April 24, 2014 by Wt_know

[13177]

i believe it's going to be under 30k.

 

more than 100k cars are going to be scraped per year from 2015 to 17. That means the COE quota would me more than doubled compare to how many we got this month.

 

Yes, those ppl scraped their cars are going to look for a new one. But those who payed 10k, 20k for a COE can afford a 40, 50k COE 10 years later? I don't think so

If coe is about 40-50K, a normal 1.6L sedan car also needs to cost above 80k plus! But if there is no 40% downpayment rule, maybe still can afford if go for 10 years loan with few k downpayment. However now there is rule to downpayment 40% and can only loan 60% of the car price, indeed there are many people who payed super low coe back then may not afford even the coe dropped to 40-50K.

Edited April 24, 2014 by 13177

[Ngseeming]

 

 

Everything has a choice ....

 

Ya, like the former MRT CEO said " you got a choice not to board a crowded train"

[Nav14]

If coe is about 40-50K, a normal 1.6L sedan car also needs to cost above 80k plus! But if there is no 40% downpayment rule, maybe still can afford if go for 10 years loan with few k downpayment. However now there is rule to downpayment 40% and can only loan 60% of the car price, indeed there are many people who payed super low coe back then may not afford even the coe dropped to 40-50K.

I believe 60% of car owners whose cars are being scrapped in the next 2 years will get a second hand car as long as the present downpayment rules stay and COE remains above 40k for Cat A and 50K for Cat B.