More COE Next Year (2014) .....

[Pisces69]

i rather the journalist talk about the importance of Cat E, and why in the current situation will affect an increase of Cat B vehicles in the long run.

 

 

I just read the article by Christopher Tan n it makes a lot of sense.

 

I think its time the gharmen did make some changes to the COE bidding cos now the high end marques r all in the 1.6 lit class(Cat A) which was supposed to b for budget cars.

 

This has upset th balance cos now there r no more "budget" car catergory anymore. The high end makes hv squeezed them out of sight.

 

Base the COE on OMV cud work but the gharmen sud b able to check the actual OMV of those cars based on what they r being sold in other countries n make adjustments like when Customs wil increase the value of items brought in to SG that r taxable so they wil end up paying a more realistic amount in import taxes. This is to counter importers who under-declare the CIF value of their products.

[Penknife]

 

 

I just read the article by Christopher Tan n it makes a lot of sense.

 

I think its time the gharmen did make some changes to the COE bidding cos now the high end marques r all in the 1.6 lit class(Cat A) which was supposed to b for budget cars.

 

This has upset th balance cos now there r no more "budget" car catergory anymore. The high end makes hv squeezed them out of sight.

 

Base the COE on OMV cud work but the gharmen sud b able to check the actual OMV of those cars based on what they r being sold in other countries n make adjustments like when Customs wil increase the value of items brought in to SG that r taxable so they wil end up paying a more realistic amount in import taxes. This is to counter importers who under-declare the CIF value of their products.

 

If we base COE on a % of OMV, then essentially it'll just be another tax similar to ARF, albeit on a different calculation.

 

And since everyone agrees that the population of cars needs to be regulated, we should keep the current mechanics of COE.

 

 

However, I feel the changes are necessary

 

1) Reclassify Cat E into cars more than 3L, therefore restricting Cat B into > 1.6l but less than 3L

- This is to accommodate cars like Mark X and BMW730. >3L are likely to be ferraris, lambos, porsche, maserati, etc and Cat E should be restricted to 25 COEs per bidding. (25 is just a number. Let the super rich vie for the cake, somewhat like the American Express Centurion card)

 

2) Transparent and bidding system.

- Current COE bidding information only shows the number of COE available for bidding, the number of bids and the COE Price. We should have more information so that buyers can make informed decisions. Information that are necessary are "lowest bidder", "highest bidder", and the mean, medium and mode.

 

3) Vehicle growth rate based on the population of Singapore

- Current system is based on a percentage multiply by the current vehicle population in each category. Such calculations ignore the population growth and will result in price instability should there be a drastic change in population. (eg, floodgate opens / drain-gate opens)

- This is to increase the supply of COE in tandem of the increase in population, SG and PR only. (Let the PR have a chance to own a vehicle in SG since PR from m'sia can't drive their m'sia registered cars in). In doing so, we will reduce the fluctuation of price movements from a sudden surge of PR converts. And when the PR decides to return to their home country, it will reduce a sudden plunge of COE prices which in turn keep the "income" for the government stable.

 

Ultimately, my suggestion is to keep price stable, hopefully.

 

In Singapore, we still need taxes/surcharges to shape the social behavior. That is why we have tax reliefs, rebates, incentives, etc.

[Pisces69]

 

If we base COE on a % of OMV, then essentially it'll just be another tax similar to ARF, albeit on a different calculation.

 

And since everyone agrees that the population of cars needs to be regulated, we should keep the current mechanics of COE.

 

 

However, I feel the changes are necessary

 

1) Reclassify Cat E into cars more than 3L, therefore restricting Cat B into > 1.6l but less than 3L

- This is to accommodate cars like Mark X and BMW730. >3L are likely to be ferraris, lambos, porsche, maserati, etc and Cat E should be restricted to 25 COEs per bidding. (25 is just a number. Let the super rich vie for the cake, somewhat like the American Express Centurion card)

 

2) Transparent and bidding system.

- Current COE bidding information only shows the number of COE available for bidding, the number of bids and the COE Price. We should have more information so that buyers can make informed decisions. Information that are necessary are "lowest bidder", "highest bidder", and the mean, medium and mode.

 

3) Vehicle growth rate based on the population of Singapore

- Current system is based on a percentage multiply by the current vehicle population in each category. Such calculations ignore the population growth and will result in price instability should there be a drastic change in population. (eg, floodgate opens / drain-gate opens)

- This is to increase the supply of COE in tandem of the increase in population, SG and PR only. (Let the PR have a chance to own a vehicle in SG since PR from m'sia can't drive their m'sia registered cars in). In doing so, we will reduce the fluctuation of price movements from a sudden surge of PR converts. And when the PR decides to return to their home country, it will reduce a sudden plunge of COE prices which in turn keep the "income" for the government stable.

 

Ultimately, my suggestion is to keep price stable, hopefully.

 

In Singapore, we still need taxes/surcharges to shape the social behavior. That is why we have tax reliefs, rebates, incentives, etc.

 

 

Makes sense.

 

Have u made a submission to the LTA giving what u mentioned above?

[Kusje]

 

If we base COE on a % of OMV, then essentially it'll just be another tax similar to ARF, albeit on a different calculation.

 

And since everyone agrees that the population of cars needs to be regulated, we should keep the current mechanics of COE.

 

 

However, I feel the changes are necessary

 

1) Reclassify Cat E into cars more than 3L, therefore restricting Cat B into > 1.6l but less than 3L

- This is to accommodate cars like Mark X and BMW730. >3L are likely to be ferraris, lambos, porsche, maserati, etc and Cat E should be restricted to 25 COEs per bidding. (25 is just a number. Let the super rich vie for the cake, somewhat like the American Express Centurion card)

 

2) Transparent and bidding system.

- Current COE bidding information only shows the number of COE available for bidding, the number of bids and the COE Price. We should have more information so that buyers can make informed decisions. Information that are necessary are "lowest bidder", "highest bidder", and the mean, medium and mode.

 

3) Vehicle growth rate based on the population of Singapore

- Current system is based on a percentage multiply by the current vehicle population in each category. Such calculations ignore the population growth and will result in price instability should there be a drastic change in population. (eg, floodgate opens / drain-gate opens)

- This is to increase the supply of COE in tandem of the increase in population, SG and PR only. (Let the PR have a chance to own a vehicle in SG since PR from m'sia can't drive their m'sia registered cars in). In doing so, we will reduce the fluctuation of price movements from a sudden surge of PR converts. And when the PR decides to return to their home country, it will reduce a sudden plunge of COE prices which in turn keep the "income" for the government stable.

 

Ultimately, my suggestion is to keep price stable, hopefully.

 

In Singapore, we still need taxes/surcharges to shape the social behavior. That is why we have tax reliefs, rebates, incentives, etc.

 

1 and 2 I agree with but not 3.

 

The whole idea of capping the car population is to prevent congestion. If you peg it to population, what is the point of COE? Instead, total COE should be pegged to the amount of congestion on the roads - for this you can take a proxy like the amount of new roads created or average travel time from point to point.

[Fastfive1]

http://www.mycarforum.com/blog/12-myautoblog//?showentry=3515

 

Are they hinting that COE could be OMV based? Esp the last few sentences.?

 

That's just some moron who is desperate to change his car! He can go to hell.

 

I'm very sure that even if the changes he mentioned were to take place, people in MCF will still continue to whine non stop about not being able to own a car or how expensive cars are.

Edited April 20, 2014 by Fastfive1

[Baal]

 

 

I just read the article by Christopher Tan n it makes a lot of sense.

 

I think its time the gharmen did make some changes to the COE bidding cos now the high end marques r all in the 1.6 lit class(Cat A) which was supposed to b for budget cars.

 

This has upset th balance cos now there r no more "budget" car catergory anymore. The high end makes hv squeezed them out of sight.

 

Base the COE on OMV cud work but the gharmen sud b able to check the actual OMV of those cars based on what they r being sold in other countries n make adjustments like when Customs wil increase the value of items brought in to SG that r taxable so they wil end up paying a more realistic amount in import taxes. This is to counter importers who under-declare the CIF value of their products.

 

- Agree, based on OMV =<20K Cat A. OMV =<50k CAT B, OMV >50k CAT E.

- That was what they claimed that they would do.

 

Even if there were sudden plunges in Yen, resulting in cars like Wish at 23k OMV becoming a CAT A car, such incidences is unlikely to be frequent enough to exact a significant upward pressure for CAT A.

 

With OMV =<20k for CAT A, with the assumption that this CAT would taper down, Jippun and Korean would be limited to just selling Altis, Civic, Slyphy & Elantra, K3.

 

I would have like to see ADs revert to bringing in 1.4 like i20, Rio 1.4/1.6 & Jazz 1.3/1.5, Suzy Swift 1.4, SSS, City....etc. The lowered OMV with the corresponding lower ARF and lower CAT A COE would make it more affordable perhaps a range from 60k to 80k.

 

At such prices, the entry barriers are still high enough to avoid a sudden surge in PT users converting to 4 wheelers, though vehicle growth would still increase moderately.

[Pisces69]

 

- Agree, based on OMV =<20K Cat A. OMV =<50k CAT B, OMV >50k CAT E.

- That was what they claimed that they would do.

 

Even if there were sudden plunges in Yen, resulting in cars like Wish at 23k OMV becoming a CAT A car, such incidences is unlikely to be frequent enough to exact a significant upward pressure for CAT A.

 

With OMV =<20k for CAT A, with the assumption that this CAT would taper down, Jippun and Korean would be limited to just selling Altis, Civic, Slyphy & Elantra, K3.

 

I would have like to see ADs revert to bringing in 1.4 like i20, Rio 1.4/1.6 & Jazz 1.3/1.5, Suzy Swift 1.4, SSS, City....etc. The lowered OMV with the corresponding lower ARF and lower CAT A COE would make it more affordable perhaps a range from 60k to 80k.

 

At such prices, the entry barriers are still high enough to avoid a sudden surge in PT users converting to 4 wheelers, though vehicle growth would still increase moderately.

 

Yes also makes sense. Many here have some very good ideas.

 

I think our Tpt Minister sud use all u guys as consultants n pay u some of his salary.

 

Why sud he get the money n u guys have the brain n ideas.

[Pisces69]

 

1 and 2 I agree with but not 3.

 

The whole idea of capping the car population is to prevent congestion. If you peg it to population, what is the point of COE? Instead, total COE should be pegged to the amount of congestion on the roads - for this you can take a proxy like the amount of new roads created or average travel time from point to point.

 

 

I think these were used as criteria to determine the % amt of increase of COE every year.

 

Maybe some of these has changed by a lot but gharmrn has not re-calculated how much % to increase the number of COEs?

 

Maybe ty hv thought in the past ty actually gave out too many COEs so now ty need to claw back a huge number, which might b causing the swing to high COE prices.

 

Or maybe ty reduce COEs after elections n increase them b4 elections to use it as a tool to gain back more popular votes, from pple.

[Watwheels]

Actually what Christopher Tan is suggesting is very biased. He's targeting a certain group of car buyers. Becoz ppl can't get what they want they start to give biased opinions to better their chances. Just read some of the above comments.

 

His suggestion is not something new. Before the recent tweaks ppl have been suggesting it to no end. The authorities can't design a system that only a certain group of ppl benefits while the others only get to watch. Though the system isn't perfect but it serves it's primary purpose when the car population gets too large.

 

The situation now is like this coz quota numbers peaked to all time high 10 years ago. This will continue for a number of years even to Election Day. They are now correcting the mistake of releasing too many COE.

 

So if you can avoid this correction period you will not pay the high COE prices. If you can't there's nothing much you can do. If you want to get used car you will be at ah beng dealers mercy. Get new car you will be at COE's mercy. Buyers here are at lose-lose situation.

 

No point saying or hoping for COE prices to fall for these coming years of correction. The authorities are control freaks. There's no way ppl can get around what they have designed.

Edited April 21, 2014 by Watwheels

[Fastfive1]

Actually what Christopher Tan is suggesting is very biased. He's targeting a certain group of car buyers. Becoz ppl can't get what they want they start to give biased opinions to better their chances. Just read some of the above comments.

 

His suggestion is not something new. Before the recent tweaks ppl have been suggesting it to no end. The authorities can't design a system that only a certain group of ppl benefits while the others only get to watch. Though the system isn't perfect but it serves it's primary purpose when the car population gets too large.

 

The situation now is like this coz quota numbers peaked to all time high 10 years ago. This will continue for a number of years even to Election Day. They are now correcting the mistake of releasing too many COE.

 

So if you can avoid this correction period you will not pay the high COE prices. If you can't there's nothing much you can do. If you want to get used car you will be at ah beng dealers mercy. Get new car you will be at COE's mercy. Buyers here are at lose-lose situation.

 

No point saying or hoping for COE prices to fall for these coming years of correction. The authorities are control freaks. There's no way ppl can get around what they have designed.

 

Precisely! All he has been doing is writing articles that appear to be neutral. I can't believe that the editorial team for MCF would want to let such garbage get published. Perhaps they share the same views? He constantly mentions social equity. Sad to say, with regard to owning a car in Singapore, it ain't gonna happen. This makes me wonder if he wants to get a new car desperately but doesn't have the means to do so. Oh don't tell me editors aren't paid much... Haha!

 

I agree with you completely. I would like to add that most people who constantly complain about COE, probably won't be able to or can barely afford it even if the COE drops to 20-30k. For starters, even a basic altis will cost you 70k (assuming COE is 20-30k).

 

• Most people who have just started working will not have 30k for down payment. How can they possibly afford a new car? Even if they do have 30k, I don't think they'd want to blow it all on a car. Furthermore, the car will eat up at least half they salary with all the expenses factored in.
• What about those people who have just started a family? Most of them don't have 30k in cash to use as down payment. They'd be using this cash to either secure a place of their own or for baby expenses.
• Some people want to change cars but even if COE drops to a reasonable 20-30k, most of them won't be able to cos their existing car is still on loan and they can't afford to sell their existing car if not they will make losses and they don't have 30k for down payment.

 

This shows that no matter how prices of new cars fall, people who want change so badly still can't afford them. But that doesn't mean they can't afford a used car. The main problem with this group of people is that they feel that owning a new car is their right and a must have. They don't want to settle for second best. There's nothing wrong with owning a used car. I've owned a few before getting a brand new Jetta.

 

The COE system is efficient in controlling car population. As I've mentioned before, the reason why it became inefficient was because of easy credit which resulted in people spending beyond their means. Quite a number of people are struggling with their car loan just that they don't make it obvious. Some have gone to the extreme of shifting their instalment deduction date just so that they don't have zero dollars left in their bank account when the bank makes the deduction.

[Wt_know]

coe $20k today, can? time to visit car showroom this weekend

[Duckduck]

I know bankers paying 3k+ monthly for car loan... all is well as long got job lol

[Coolad]

 

This shows that no matter how prices of new cars fall, people who want change so badly still can't afford them. But that doesn't mean they can't afford a used car. The main problem with this group of people is that they feel that owning a new car is their right and a must have. They don't want to settle for second best. There's nothing wrong with owning a used car. I've owned a few before getting a brand new Jetta.

 

Me opposite of u.. after getting my 1st 3 rides brand new..,. decided to go the pre-owned route after tat... in Sg... 1st owner take depreciation hard hard... and with sites like Sgcarmart/car forums, basically internet... i can get really good pre-owned rides...minus the cut-throat depreciation... also with the same budget I can get a higher model...

[Wt_know]

wah your story paint a very different picture what i see and feel leh

 

million dollar condo sell like hot cakes ... hundreds of cheques throw into ballot box ... units below $1.5M are considered sibei CHEAP

bto and ec oversubscribed and oversubscribed

bishan hdb no $1M no talk

when i see new car plate on the road ... no bmw/merc no talk

 

cheap money continue to flow with low low interest rate ... yeah low interest rate will not continue forever, but loaner don't look far ... hehe

 

since LTA revised rule of 40-50% downpayment many months ago, industry expert and internet users commented coe will come down. llike you said how many people can afford such high downpayment. yet the reality prove otherwise. people who buy new car continue to buy and coe did not come down (yeah, did fall from $90k to $70k). when LTA revised the rule 130bhp, coe will come down .... and we know it didn't and probably will not.

 

 

Precisely! All he has been doing is writing articles that appear to be neutral. I can't believe that the editorial team for MCF would want to let such garbage get published. Perhaps they share the same views? He constantly mentions social equity. Sad to say, with regard to owning a car in Singapore, it ain't gonna happen. This makes me wonder if he wants to get a new car desperately but doesn't have the means to do so. Oh don't tell me editors aren't paid much... Haha!

 

I agree with you completely. I would like to add that most people who constantly complain about COE, probably won't be able to or can barely afford it even if the COE drops to 20-30k. For starters, even a basic altis will cost you 70k (assuming COE is 20-30k).

 

• Most people who have just started working will not have 30k for down payment. How can they possibly afford a new car? Even if they do have 30k, I don't think they'd want to blow it all on a car. Furthermore, the car will eat up at least half they salary with all the expenses factored in.
• What about those people who have just started a family? Most of them don't have 30k in cash to use as down payment. They'd be using this cash to either secure a place of their own or for baby expenses.
• Some people want to change cars but even if COE drops to a reasonable 20-30k, most of them won't be able to cos their existing car is still on loan and they can't afford to sell their existing car if not they will make losses and they don't have 30k for down payment.

 

This shows that no matter how prices of new cars fall, people who want change so badly still can't afford them. But that doesn't mean they can't afford a used car. The main problem with this group of people is that they feel that owning a new car is their right and a must have. They don't want to settle for second best. There's nothing wrong with owning a used car. I've owned a few before getting a brand new Jetta.

 

The COE system is efficient in controlling car population. As I've mentioned before, the reason why it became inefficient was because of easy credit which resulted in people spending beyond their means. Quite a number of people are struggling with their car loan just that they don't make it obvious. Some have gone to the extreme of shifting their instalment deduction date just so that they don't have zero dollars left in their bank account when the bank makes the deduction.

 

Edited April 23, 2014 by Wt_know

[Wyfitms]

wah your story paint a very different picture what i see and feel leh

 

million dollar condo sell like hot cakes ... hundreds of cheques throw into ballot box ... units below $1.5M are considered sibei CHEAP

bto and ec oversubscribed and oversubscribed

bishan hdb no $1M no talk

when i see new car plate on the road ... no bmw/merc no talk

 

cheap money continue to flow with low low interest rate ... yeah low interest rate will not continue forever, but loaner don't look far ... hehe

 

since LTA revised rule of 40-50% downpayment many months ago, industry expert and internet users commented coe will come down. llike you said how many people can afford such high downpayment. yet the reality prove otherwise. people who buy new car continue to buy and coe did not come down (yeah, did fall from $90k to $70k). when LTA revised the rule 130bhp, coe will come down .... and we know it didn't and probably will not.

 

 

 

yes, current environment still flushed with money/ credit

 

Just like COE, many say the ADSD/ TDSR will wipe out demand. Yes, it took out the marginal players, but many still can and willing to pay the high 6 figures stamp duty in cash. Case in point, close to 60% of the buyers for lakeville were purchasers of 2nd or more property.

 

That's a lot of people who are paying $100-200+K in stamp duty!

 

I know bankers paying 3k+ monthly for car loan... all is well as long got job lol

 

no job also no problem what, just sell car lah

[Wt_know]

good ... looking forward for big angpow in budget 2015

this year got nothing leh ... all goes to pioneer liao

 

 

yes, current environment still flushed with money/ credit

 

Just like COE, many say the ADSD/ TDSR will wipe out demand. Yes, it took out the marginal players, but many still can and willing to pay the high 6 figures stamp duty in cash. Case in point, close to 60% of the buyers for lakeville were purchasers of 2nd or more property.

 

That's a lot of people who are paying $100-200+K in stamp duty!

 

 

no job also no problem what, just sell car lah

 

[Kangadrool]

quite big chunk of buyers could be corporate buyers who has no problem paying cash and at dealer's listed price. No bargaining, no gifts, and they all secure their cars at 1st coe bidding.

 

There are many companies shifting HQ to Singapore and also relocating expats from APAC area here.

 

wah your story paint a very different picture what i see and feel leh

 

million dollar condo sell like hot cakes ... hundreds of cheques throw into ballot box ... units below $1.5M are considered sibei CHEAP

bto and ec oversubscribed and oversubscribed

bishan hdb no $1M no talk

when i see new car plate on the road ... no bmw/merc no talk

 

cheap money continue to flow with low low interest rate ... yeah low interest rate will not continue forever, but loaner don't look far ... hehe

 

since LTA revised rule of 40-50% downpayment many months ago, industry expert and internet users commented coe will come down. llike you said how many people can afford such high downpayment. yet the reality prove otherwise. people who buy new car continue to buy and coe did not come down (yeah, did fall from $90k to $70k). when LTA revised the rule 130bhp, coe will come down .... and we know it didn't and probably will not.

 

 

 

[Voodooman]

 

Precisely! All he has been doing is writing articles that appear to be neutral. I can't believe that the editorial team for MCF would want to let such garbage get published. Perhaps they share the same views? He constantly mentions social equity. Sad to say, with regard to owning a car in Singapore, it ain't gonna happen. This makes me wonder if he wants to get a new car desperately but doesn't have the means to do so. Oh don't tell me editors aren't paid much... Haha!

 

I agree with you completely. I would like to add that most people who constantly complain about COE, probably won't be able to or can barely afford it even if the COE drops to 20-30k. For starters, even a basic altis will cost you 70k (assuming COE is 20-30k).

 

• Most people who have just started working will not have 30k for down payment. How can they possibly afford a new car? Even if they do have 30k, I don't think they'd want to blow it all on a car. Furthermore, the car will eat up at least half they salary with all the expenses factored in.
• What about those people who have just started a family? Most of them don't have 30k in cash to use as down payment. They'd be using this cash to either secure a place of their own or for baby expenses.
• Some people want to change cars but even if COE drops to a reasonable 20-30k, most of them won't be able to cos their existing car is still on loan and they can't afford to sell their existing car if not they will make losses and they don't have 30k for down payment.

This shows that no matter how prices of new cars fall, people who want change so badly still can't afford them. But that doesn't mean they can't afford a used car. The main problem with this group of people is that they feel that owning a new car is their right and a must have. They don't want to settle for second best. There's nothing wrong with owning a used car. I've owned a few before getting a brand new Jetta.

 

The COE system is efficient in controlling car population. As I've mentioned before, the reason why it became inefficient was because of easy credit which resulted in people spending beyond their means. Quite a number of people are struggling with their car loan just that they don't make it obvious. Some have gone to the extreme of shifting their instalment deduction date just so that they don't have zero dollars left in their bank account when the bank makes the deduction.

Most people driving end of life cars cannot afford new car with COE at 80k, so they will continue to buy preowned cars, so replacement demand for new cars may not be that strong. There are of course those who can afford 80k COE and who buy and keep their cars for 10 years but they are far and few.

 

The rich will always buy, no matter what, so will the rich buy another 2 new cars should COE drop to say, 50k, when they already have 2 in the garage?

 

Given 50% increase (example) in demand and 4-6 folds increase in supply, price should drop, right?