How low will COE go?

[Benarsenal]

Did BMW and Toyota ever had a major industrial presence here?

 

Authorised Dealer no count hor. The link between Inchcape and Toyota is as close as that between your friendly ah beng handphone shop and Singtel. Ditto for PML and BMW.

 

Actually a lot of the Contis have principal presence here. BMW, Merc, VW, Audi etc all have regional operations in Singapore.

Edited February 26, 2013 by Benarsenal

[Tjkbeluga]

I Thot the 5 yrs 50% rule applies to all cat a b e regardless of type of buyer? Unless you mean these clowns go buy cat c euro van :angry:

Yea lor.... Those kangoo cars.... The only problem is that can't drive into MY and it's not that comfy, which is a small price to pay. Petrol is cheap and fuel economical also....

[Donut]

buffett says :

Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.

 

let the dead bury the dead.

 

 

LIKE!

[Zanter]

Yea lor.... Those kangoo cars.... The only problem is that can't drive into MY and it's not that comfy, which is a small price to pay. Petrol is cheap and fuel economical also....

 

Problem with most Singaporean is that it connotes low status

[Tjkbeluga]

Problem with most Singaporean is that it connotes low status

I've seen such car in S plate... Now that truely puzzles me.... It's was Fiat car. Must be a die hard conti lover who can't afford one...

[Coltplussport]

Wow guys, now is the time to start a leasing company if you have lots of capital. Many who cannot afford the deposits will be interested despite the high monthly leasing cost. Those second hand dealers stuck with too many cars can start a leasing company

 

But on a second note, be careful the garmen flip prata again.

[Zanter]

Wow guys, now is the time to start a leasing company if you have lots of capital. Many who cannot afford the deposits will be interested despite the high monthly leasing cost. Those second hand dealers stuck with too many cars can start a leasing company

 

But on a second note, be careful the garmen flip prata again.

 

Long term leasing is not very popular here compared to other countries because the idea of having a car is proving you have the $ to pay. So leasing seen as a faux ownership but the reality is that All of us are in fact leasing our cars due to the 10 year COE limitation. All car are on 10 year leasing even if you paid in full, the rental being the depreciation suffered. Hence the car ownership we pretend to have is really illusionary. Unlike in many country where you really can keep the car forever. COE system exacabates the depreciation further.

[Mustank]

Yea lor.... Those kangoo cars.... The only problem is that can't drive into MY and it's not that comfy, which is a small price to pay. Petrol is cheap and fuel economical also....

 

 

zheng hoo should restrict these $2 gong see from buying threse euro vans

true business always have a need for more capacity, thats why real business will buy hi ace, lite ace, cabstar, all those tua teng one

which real business buy euro van? carrying capacity so small, maintenance so high, parts so exp,

real business dont go around zhnging their lorries and vans

[Tjkbeluga]

zheng hoo should restrict these $2 gong see from buying threse euro vans

true business always have a need for more capacity, thats why real business will buy hi ace, lite ace, cabstar, all those tua teng one

which real business buy euro van? carrying capacity so small, maintenance so high, parts so exp,

real business dont go around zhnging their lorries and vans

Yes, and it is easy to enforce. Just need to make them show that there are reasonable amount of business transactions.... But come to think of it, if like this, then 2 can pakat.... I sell you, you sell me.... Haha... Well, just a way to make it harder for people...

[Albeniz]

Its a business decision, who ask them to speculate? When they make money when COE goes up did they praise the Govt?

 

In fact would iimpact all car owners but will hit those that bought in last couple years the hardest and those who over-leverage.

a simple message:

if you over leverage, you die.

it is just a matter of time

 

[Soya]

Cycle and Carriage may just bring Mitsubishi back into their lineup - it has all but disappeared since the COE spike.

 

 

i tink onli radx can resurrect the dead.......

[Soya]

Does it mean that those 5yr old 2nd hand car will be the most sought after since can take 'maximum loan tenure'?

 

 

that was the case back in the 90s when 70% rule was in place. 3-yr old cars were quite popular.

 

 

[Mustank]

Yes, and it is easy to enforce. Just need to make them show that there are reasonable amount of business transactions.... But come to think of it, if like this, then 2 can pakat.... I sell you, you sell me.... Haha... Well, just a way to make it harder for people...

 

 

no need lah

 

getting people to submit accounting documents will only drive people to start falsifying accouting records which opens them up to serious implications which is really no need lah

 

1) i respect that there are some new startups that need a commercial ride, for this we shouldnt stop these $2 gong see from buying real commercial rides like high ace, cabstar or big euro vans like transit but we should restrict these $2 gong see from buying those small euro vans because it is clear that these are just drifters from the Cat A,B and E

 

2) if a real business which already have a fleet of vehicles (which proves that they are real business) and wanna buy small euro vans, i think we should allow lah

[Felipe]

I feel bad (not sad) for used car dealers who were taking in cars based on the recent prices. If COE drop big time the used car market will definitely drop too. They've been screwed by govt.

 

this govt can practically do whatever it wants as there's hardly any checks and balances

[Moredhel]

Ho seh liao..

 

Prediction for COE trend:

 

CAT A: steep but gradual decrease leading up to low of 15-20k in 2014/2015, *note taxi companies will cushion price drops during this period

CAT B: sharp decrease to 50-65% before gradually picking up (25-45k)

Open : small decrease before even out (45-70k)

 

 

Prediction on resulting actions and other related:

 

ERP increase in certain areas to 'control congestion' (from cars recently sold from budget 2013 news) in the meantime

GST increase planned for the near future to 'remain competitive and fund increased social spending for poor and elderly care'

Ministar salaries increment to tag to predicted blomming economy & bountiful year of 2013

Petrol prices increase as economy picks up and investment on development and manufacturing charges on to a higher gear.

Cost of services increases as smes face rising labour and operational costs

 

 

 

Notes to self:

 

Look out for spike in secondary car market (should be balanced out as coe gradually decreases)

*Cherry pick on naked swimmers*

Short term vehicular loans (and short term loans) interest rate looks set to increase

[FocusWagon]

if parents can for children's dbss or ec purchase, what is only 50% of s new car?

 

One is investment, one is expense. Big big diff. I will never ever buy my kids a car. House still ok.

[Nav14]

I doubt COE prices will go back to 20k if the COE supply remains restricted. The COE supply will make the biggest difference in prices and not such policies. Singaporeans have serious money. Just look at the failure of the 6 CMs for the property market. The pent up demand has been building up and there are many who have been waiting at the sidelines for lower COE prices and would have no problem paying 60-70k downpayment. It will take quite some time to clear off this backlog. Come 2015 when the COE supply is expected to increase, the govt will likely by then even out the supply. The huge increase in supply may not materialise to the extent expected.

I am expecting COE prices to hover around 50-60k for the next 1-2yrs.

 

[Kar_lover]

To your first point , if you think i am doing baseless assumptions then i guess you are wrong. Dude , i work in the credit dept and i think of the guys here know. I know the stats of the ratio of the marginal lenders in different makes and income even until the demographics of these lenders but i cannot say it here due to various reasons. So if you want to compare the income of a KR make driver to any other make , apple for apple , you probably would find the difference in income. I was away from here for many reason and have warn in my previous post on potential sh1t happening. You can scroll back on my post to check.Can you prove me or at least tell me what dept you work in the bank to know this? While people point fingers , they always forget that the same accusation can be used on themselves. Self pawned as usual.

 

I am not sure if your brain works on aesthetics for things that don't last , given the quality , paint work and electronics in KR makes what makes you think it is absolutely better? Yes , if the car is made in Thailand under Toyota then it is made in Thailand and not MIJ , it is probably inferior. We all know the Thai made toyotas cars have an inferior quality just like we know the cars made in Japan are better. So it is pointless arguing this when i see is and hear from mechanics are the cost of maintenance and repairs for Korean makes are so high that it isn't worth it. Even the recent BB models like the cerato forte are having alot of problems as compared to jap makes like axio , allion , fit ,latio etc. Yes maybe an occasional lemon thats all.Those that i know which are driving the jap model has not mentioned of any problems as compare to those driving MIK complaining here spoil there spoil. So what is the point of this feature that feature when it doesn't last?

 

The issue here is we are comparing to marginal buyers which are going for price so please don't drag the higher models in , this way it is easier to compare and relate. When you say MIK not absolute cheapest , yes i agree but compare it to drivable cars with a certain amount of reliability not to trash cars which you won't even bother to look at unless no choice , but again you yourself is making assumptions.

 

 

As for your second point , you are assuming if you have the 50k or 100k , ok we can work on this . Yes, currently rates are at 1.88 , real rates are probably around 3%. Now the question i post to you is , you tell me you can invest to get 4~5% , is this investment absolutely risk less and the returns are guaranteed? If so , please name me that investment , i will put my whole fortune in it. If not , don't come and tell me c--k and bull story about people making this amount that amount. I have heard enough of this kind of crap which is not ealistic with those amounts. 50k cash want guarantee 4~5% , show me what investment? Else please don't be a joke. Another baseless assumption?

 

As for income , 8k vs 5k , given everything being equal i.e expenditures and stuff , what makes you think the banks would give the 5k a lower credit line as compared to an 8k fellow? As such , who can potentially spend more?

 

First para: what do you want me to prove? I did not make any statement per se. I just said that your assumption that all MIK buyers are marginal may not be necessarily true, meaning it may be true to some extent but not to the extent like all of them are. However since u work in credit line, i will concede that you may be right that a majority of them are indeed marginal.

 

Second para, that's just what you say. I also can say Korean cars as reliable as Japanese car. In fact my previous Fit GE started having problems after 18mths. My Kia was problem free up to the 30th month.

 

Third para: when did i bring higher models in??

 

Fourth: I don't invest but i have frens who do and this is actually what they told me. Better to buy blue chip or something like that and also that interest rates will not remain this low for long so now that it is low better to take advantage of it. I am hoping someone can tell me what the EIR is for a 1.88% flat rate over 10years tenure.

 

Fifth: if eveything else is equal, why wouldn't they? You mean a person with annual income of $60k will get higher limit than someone with $90k p.a.?