More COE Next Year (2014) .....

[Wt_know]

with high coe .... most used car dealer will scrap their car

it does not make sense to renew coe and try to sell

the only business sense to renew coe is for supercar that cost > $500k

 

 

 

Edited April 26, 2014 by Wt_know

[Mkl22]

 

Agree .... not many cars make it to 10 years. When I traded in my Y2005 Civic in Y2008, the car was scrapped.

 

Many Y2004/2005 cars that were "traded in" were scrapped during Y2008/Y2009. No one buys 2nd hand car during that period as new cars were so cheap then. Sell low buy low .... which I prefer it to "Sell high Buy higher".

Why do you want to sell high buy higher? Even if you pay cash, doesn't more money get stuck in a car? If you take a loan, banks lagi happier cause they earn more from you. I fail to see the logic

[Penknife]

 

 

School holidays n exams wil also affect the amt of cars on the roads. Even trains n buses r affected.

 

Last night I came back from JB abt 9pm n the traffic at both ends of the cway was light n smooth.

 

So seems last night there was a football match on TV n so if gharmen wan to reduce the jams, just have more free football matches shown at peak times on TV n we wil instantly see a drop in traffic n no more jams.

school holidays i agree with you. i generally take less travelling time from upper thomsom all the way to farrer/adam, exit to holland road.

 

jb wise, didn't know there's such a thing. but i went in on Fri night, just before 11pm, the jam at wdl is crazy.

 

thats bcoz they open up zone 3 and 4 for bikes. heng i riding, took less than 30 min to clear.

i feel that better city planning and encourage company to have stagnate working hours could help to reduce the jam in city or highway too. there are many ways to do it without involving $$$ if the govt really want to help reducing road congestion.

 

all govt offices start work at 10am and end at 730pm...something like this could make a different.

so, who is going to be there for parents to pick up the children at the childcare centre?

 

lets say, work at CPF, child at Woodlands. The teacher need to stay until 8.45pm?

[Vinceng]

Cars in S'pore generaly have low mileages averaging 20,000km annually.

 

It's a shame and very un-green to scrap cars when they reach their 10th year. Can easily drive for at least another 10 years.

 

IMG-20140419-WA0000.jpg

IMG-20140419-WA0002.jpg

 

 

[Yeobt]

 

so, who is going to be there for parents to pick up the children at the childcare centre?

 

lets say, work at CPF, child at Woodlands. The teacher need to stay until 8.45pm?

 

maybe they can have different group of staffs working for different hours.

those that like to sleep late and cannot wake up early one like me can choose to start work at 10am.

[Vinceng]

The culture here is leaned towards "owning" a car, rather than leasing. Technically speaking, you don't "own" your car. The car belongs to the bank when you secure a loan to "purchase" your car, or to put it bluntly, every new car purchased is on a "10 year loan" (COE validity period).

 

If you do your sums, it may be cheaper and more financially viable to lease than buy a car. You don't have to come up with the 50% upfront downpayment in cold hard cash, and can invest the cash on hand and make it grow.

 

BUY A CAR

 

Let's take a used 2007 Lancer 1.6A from sgcarmarta as an example, with 3 more years to drive

http://www.sgcarmart.com/used_cars/info.php?ID=401505&DL=2429

 

Purchase price $33,000 (after bargaining) - scrap value $6,000 = $27,000

 

Annual depreciation = $27,000 / 3 years = $9000

 

Annual expenditure on car (excl parking and petrol) =\:

 

1) Depreciation = $9000

2) Road tax = $734

3) Insurance = $1000

4) Maintenance and replacement of wear and tear parts like tyres & car wash = $2,000 #

# This is a very conservative estimate. Trust me, there'll be lots of parts like engine mounting, timing belt, water pump, shock absorber, drive shaft, tyres etc. to replace for >5 yr old used car) *This cost will be significantly higher if the gearbox needs repair or replacement

 

TOTAL = $12,734 a year

 

 

LEASE A CAR

 

Lancer 1.6A

 

http://www.mycarforum.com/index.php?app=sgcarstore&req=showprod&product=15769

 

$12000 mth x 12 mths = $14,400 a year

 

 

For an additional $1700 a year, you can practically neglect maintaining, washing and grooming the car and just drive.

 

Are there any reasons why the "anti-leasing" sentiments is so high here?

Edited April 26, 2014 by Vinceng

[Wt_know]

buy used vs lease used ... ok comparable if the car looks identical

 

buy new with 3 years warranty vs lease used car (1-2 years old) ... the saving is not much ..... then again new car vs used car ... not a fair comparison especially new car design looks better and stylo mylo

 

buy new vs lease new ... lease new is more expensive obviously

 

Edited April 26, 2014 by Wt_know

[Vinceng]

But the moment you drive your brand new car out of the car showroom, the resale value takes a drastic nose dive south.

 

You shd use straight line depreciation. Your new car purchase price minus selling price at end of third yr divide by three. The loss is very significant.

Edited April 26, 2014 by Vinceng

[Baal]

i feel that better city planning and encourage company to have stagnate working hours could help to reduce the jam in city or highway too. there are many ways to do it without involving $$$ if the govt really want to help reducing road congestion.

 

all govt offices start work at 10am and end at 730pm...something like this could make a different.

 

The prob is that they will not accept solutions that reduce their income. But yes, ur suggestion should if implemented should make a difference since they are the biggest employer in this city.

For those whose cars due for scrap these few months is better off getting another 8 to 9 yrs old car to tie over if one needs a car for work and unable to move to public transport.

 

The pic on the scrap yard is so wasteful.

 

 

Im sure if u go to LTA n ty can oblige u n calculate the PQP for Cat E. Hahaha.

 

U pay more ty sure say....... can can.

 

U mean yr small car (1 lit car) ty register under cat E?

 

Usually Cat E is used for big >2 lit cars from Cat B.

 

Ya lor, its under CAT E for a 1.4.

 

I was also considering renewing 5 yrs & watch & wait 2016-2019 see how things unfold, esp since ERP2 slated for 2020 is on the way.

 

But will lose 6k PARF, spend 2K+ for AT rebuild , alternator, radiator. Up front losses could be 10k + pay for 5yrs pqp.

Edited April 26, 2014 by Baal

[Wt_know]

the current coe system is proven, tested and double confirmed to make $1B to $2B income a year.

who is stupid enough or dare to break it ... will you kill the goose that lay golden eggs?

 

 

Edited April 26, 2014 by Wt_know

[Super7]

the current coe system is proven, tested and double confirmed to make $1B to $2B income a year.

who is stupid enough or dare to break it ... will you kill the goose that lay golden eggs?

 

 

Lets say LTA die die want to collect the 2b every year from drivers, maybe they should do away with COE and then increase ERP to collect the same amount? Drivers will think twice crossing ERP gantries.

[Penknife]

Lets say LTA die die want to collect the 2b every year from drivers, maybe they should do away with COE and then increase ERP to collect the same amount? Drivers will think twice crossing ERP gantries.

dismount and push?

 

technically u r not driving across the ERP unit.

[Super7]

dismount and push?

 

technically u r not driving across the ERP unit.

Technically LTA doesn't care if the car is driven or pushed pass the ERP, but maybe towed pass is ok n no need to pay ERP, I think only

LOL

[Ktglfc]

Aiyo, the moment a car step on the road, it's $ for garmen. Road tax is minimum $, bonus is ERP. Special dividend for them will be summons on us .. Hahaha

[Liuels]

According to LTA，there were only around 22k car sold(COE issued) last year, and the total car population now excluding taxi，lorry and bus are around 620k.

 

because of the COE system, there are high supply years, and there are low supply years. but one thing is almost certain, during the next few years, there would be more than 100k COE expiring every year.

 

Let's assume 90% of those car owners die die wanna continue driving. Then there would be more than 10K COE for the others to grab, compare to 2.2K last year.The supply and demand situation would be much improved, thus why I am quite optimized about the COE price. It will drop, and it will drop significantly.

Edited April 26, 2014 by Liuels

[Wt_know]

you did not factor in new buyers get into the market between 2010 - 2013.

these buyers paid high coe as high as $70k-$90k

if coe drop to $40k, they can easily change car

besides, with the increased of population and more regional angmohs placed in spore, there will be more "new" buyers going into the market every year.

there are also many richies children get into the market when they graduate studying. their papa and mama will help them to buy the 1st car.

 

2004-2005 population was 4.1-4.2M

2013-2014 population is 5.3M and growing ...

there will be 1M additional people to fight for coe

 

According to LTA，there were only around 22k car sold(COE issued) last year, and the total car population now excluding taxi，lorry and bus are around 620k.

 

because of the COE system, there are high supply years, and there are low supply years. but one thing is almost certain, during the next few years, there would be more than 100k COE expiring every year.

 

Let's assume 90% of those car owners die die wanna continue driving. Then there would be more than 10K COE for the others to grab, compare to 2.2K last year.The supply and demand situation would be much improved, thus why I am quite optimized about the COE price. It will drop, and it will drop significantly.

 

Edited April 26, 2014 by Wt_know

[Liuels]

you did not factor in new buyers get into the market between 2010 - 2013.

these buyers paid high coe as high as $70k-$90k

if coe drop to $40k, they can easily change car

besides, with the increased of population and more regional angmohs placed in spore, there will be more "new" buyers going into the market every year.

there are also many richies children get into the market when they graduate studying. their papa and mama will help them to buy the 1st car.

 

 

 

no need to count them in.

 

if COE drop to 40k, their high COE cars can't be sold in the used market (cos paper value would be higher than market value), thus they have to de-register their cars, and buy new ones. In the end, that would not affect the no. of COE for the others.

 

and for the population growth, the speed is not equal to the speed of COE growth. The population might grow 5% during the next few years, but the no. of COE issued each year would be 4 to 5 times more compare to last year.

Edited April 26, 2014 by Liuels

[Duckduck]

heres my "TA" on COE prices:

 

For cat A & B, as can be seen theres a very important green trendline from 2009. Both cats hit that trendline more than once, especially cat A.

 

So cat A is at a critical support price now, with cat B almost there too. If that trendline is broken for either cats, then it opens them to the purple line which is around the 61.8% fib retracement, which also happens to be the bottom last year when loan to values were decreased for car financing.

 

So the levels to watch are ard 73K, 61.8k, then 50k followed by abt 40k. "Upside" target is 100K if green trendline is well supported.

 

Edited April 26, 2014 by Duckduck