More COE Next Year (2014) .....

[Wt_know]

hahaha ... coe is really like stock market

awesome technical analysis

i am more layman ... simple demand vs supply.

evidently, demand is extremely strong ... extremely even with 40-50% downpayment

 

the question is supply. if supply remain the same even with 20% increase, still not enough to meet demand (replacement plus new buyer - 25k NEW PR every year)

Edited April 26, 2014 by Wt_know

[Voodooman]

hahaha ... coe is really like stock market

awesome technical analysis

i am more layman ... simple demand vs supply.

evidently, demand is extremely strong ... extremely even with 40-50% downpayment

 

the question is supply. if supply remain the same even with 20% increase, still not enough to meet demand (replacement plus new buyer - 25k NEW PR every year)

Most new PR already in country would have bought a car if they needed one. So it is not a new source of demand. New demand will come from new imports arriving on our shores and organic growth (car less family buying first car). We have to resume 80k COE is equilibrium (market clearing) price, ie. demand equals to supply and reflects the higher population base. If supply outpaces demand, price should drop. I have not seen any statistics from you showing demand will outpace supply (despite 5 folds increase in supply), which appears to be your main argument that COE will continue to head north. Same for your previous property argument, which is being tested now and will be tested over the next few years.

 

Anyway, 25k divide by average family size of 3.5 would equal around 5k household, Supply will however increase 5 folds.

Edited April 26, 2014 by Voodooman

[Vinceng]

"COE has hit rock bottom. Prices have dropped consecutively during the last 3 bids. Advisable to commit now or you will end up paying more if you delay your purchase. "

 

That is the general scare tactic I got from new car distributors.

 

Trying to lie to a 3 yr old. :-P

[Ktglfc]

heres my "TA" on COE prices:

 

For cat A & B, as can be seen theres a very important green trendline from 2009. Both cats hit that trendline more than once, especially cat A.

 

So cat A is at a critical support price now, with cat B almost there too. If that trendline is broken for either cats, then it opens them to the purple line which is around the 61.8% fib retracement, which also happens to be the bottom last year when loan to values were decreased for car financing.

 

So the levels to watch are ard 73K, 61.8k, then 50k followed by abt 40k. "Upside" target is 100K if green trendline is well supported.

 

 

So I thought only stocks have TA, now even COE prices also have TA :) Yes lah

What abt FA on COE prices?

 

If it drops below $40k by mid-next year 2015, mai tu liao :) But then it will also attract FT to buy cars too... gosh, it may counter and push prices up... of course, hope it won't happen, so that everyone happy :)

[Pisces69]

The culture here is leaned towards "owning" a car, rather than leasing. Technically speaking, you don't "own" your car. The car belongs to the bank when you secure a loan to "purchase" your car, or to put it bluntly, every new car purchased is on a "10 year loan" (COE validity period).

 

If you do your sums, it may be cheaper and more financially viable to lease than buy a car. You don't have to come up with the 50% upfront downpayment in cold hard cash, and can invest the cash on hand and make it grow.

 

BUY A CAR

 

Let's take a used 2007 Lancer 1.6A from sgcarmarta as an example, with 3 more years to drive

http://www.sgcarmart.com/used_cars/info.php?ID=401505&DL=2429

 

Purchase price $33,000 (after bargaining) - scrap value $6,000 = $27,000

 

Annual depreciation = $27,000 / 3 years = $9000

 

Annual expenditure on car (excl parking and petrol) =\:

 

1) Depreciation = $9000

2) Road tax = $734

3) Insurance = $1000

4) Maintenance and replacement of wear and tear parts like tyres & car wash = $2,000 #

# This is a very conservative estimate. Trust me, there'll be lots of parts like engine mounting, timing belt, water pump, shock absorber, drive shaft, tyres etc. to replace for >5 yr old used car) *This cost will be significantly higher if the gearbox needs repair or replacement

 

TOTAL = $12,734 a year

 

 

LEASE A CAR

 

Lancer 1.6A

 

http://www.mycarforum.com/index.php?app=sgcarstore&req=showprod&product=15769

 

$12000 mth x 12 mths = $14,400 a year

 

 

For an additional $1700 a year, you can practically neglect maintaining, washing and grooming the car and just drive.

 

Are there any reasons why the "anti-leasing" sentiments is so high here?

 

 

Fpr a 2007 Lancer to have a yearly depreciation of $9K/year already seems like damm high.

 

My 2006 Optra Estate 1.6 Auto only yearly depreciation abt $3.6K/year.

[Pisces69]

Lets say LTA die die want to collect the 2b every year from drivers, maybe they should do away with COE and then increase ERP to collect the same amount? Drivers will think twice crossing ERP gantries.

 

 

The gharmen knows very well that if ty do away with the COE n other "taxes" on OWNING a car n increase the taxes on just driving on congested roads(ERP) during peak hours, the charges for ERP wil b very very high which wil chase most motorists away from these ERP taxed roads n cause them to b deserted n the other alternative roads wil b super jam packed every day.

 

Thats why ty spread the charges around so owning the car already u pay a huge amount of taxes n then using it u pay summore.

 

This way u can buy the car n even though u do NOT contribute to any jams u have to pay a penalty. Then those who drive during peak times wil still find using their cars still affordable.

 

But this system is unfair cos it penalises even those who DO NOT add to the jams on the roads.

 

This goes to show one thing. The total amt of taxes pple pay to own n drive their cars here are extremely high n since ty r spread out, ty dont seem so much to pple.

 

If the real motorists who cause the jams r taxed what ty sud b taxed then many wil cry fowl to the gharmen. But this is a fairer system.

 

But then maybe many wil not wan to drive during peak n the roads wil b empty n gharmen wil suffer cos ty wil b getting much less revenue from the "system".

 

This wud hv solved the problem of jams but these pple wil then end up taking public transport n it just cannot cope with the higher load of passengers.

 

So in conclusion, our transport system is flawed n the gharmen have not really done anything to really solve the problem. They r just pushing it from here to there then back here again. Just moving it round n round so sometimes cars seem slightly solved, then public transport other times seems like slightly solved.

 

In reality NOTHING HAS BEEN SOLVED BUT THE PROBLEM HAS ONLY BEEN PUSHED ROUND N ROUND.

[Pisces69]

"COE has hit rock bottom. Prices have dropped consecutively during the last 3 bids. Advisable to commit now or you will end up paying more if you delay your purchase. "

 

That is the general scare tactic I got from new car distributors.

 

Trying to lie to a 3 yr old. :-P

 

The dealers just wan u to commit to buy yr car so they wil earn their comissions.

 

If pple stop buying while waiting for the COE to drop further, the dealers wil start to starve n ty scared of going hungry.

[Pisces69]

 

The prob is that they will not accept solutions that reduce their income. But yes, ur suggestion should if implemented should make a difference since they are the biggest employer in this city.

 

The pic on the scrap yard is so wasteful.

 

Ya lor, its under CAT E for a 1.4.

 

I was also considering renewing 5 yrs & watch & wait 2016-2019 see how things unfold, esp since ERP2 slated for 2020 is on the way.

 

But will lose 6k PARF, spend 2K+ for AT rebuild , alternator, radiator. Up front losses could be 10k + pay for 5yrs pqp.

 

 

But if u renew yr COE for only 5 years then u still lose the same amt of "scrap value". So then its divided by only 5 yrears.

 

If u renew COE for 10years then yr scrap value is divided by 10 years which means only half the amt per year.

 

Then with the costs of the alternator, radiator n autobox added in, maybe not such a good idea to renew yr COE. Just sell the car n get a car with abt 2 more years left on the COE.

 

Do yr sums first cos yr car already not in very good condition so not worth to renew COE.

Edited April 26, 2014 by Pisces69

[Pisces69]

 

 

The pic on the scrap yard is so wasteful.

 

 

 

There r many things that is very wasteful here caused by the gharmen.

 

But the loss is ours n the gain is theirs so ty very happy.

[Akula]

There is a potential wildcard.

To prevent another "feast and famine" cycle, there is a possibility that the Gov will not released the expected full number of cents in 2016, 2017 etc....

LTA could set a maximum number, say 70,000 Coe per year, or 17,500 per quarter....( just guessing the numbers)

Any COEs above this figure would be kept in "reserve" until such time when the lean years comes around.

I believe the industry is lobbying for this.

[Baal]

 

 

There r many things that is very wasteful here caused by the gharmen.

 

But the loss is ours n the gain is theirs so ty very happy.

 

Ya, see how it goes. I may just scrap & get my bro's car (more like my mum's Suzuki swift ) instead. 7.5yo, mileage 42k .

 

Then I just helped her friend bring her friend'd 5 yr old Beettle today for tyre rotation. mileage 34K.

 

My mum's Swift is till 3rd Quart 2016. So maybe if I take over her car & renew 10yrs, she could share the Beetle with her good friend who incidentally stays 4-5 mins drive away.

There is a potential wildcard.

To prevent another "feast and famine" cycle, there is a possibility that the Gov will not released the expected full number of cents in 2016, 2017 etc....

LTA could set a maximum number, say 70,000 Coe per year, or 17,500 per quarter....( just guessing the numbers)

Any COEs above this figure would be kept in "reserve" until such time when the lean years comes around.

I believe the industry is lobbying for this.

 

I would support this too. If would address the some of the wastage aspect. Coe should not be like some violatile stick market.

[13177]

Pass by a scrapyard yesterday in the North and saw 3 sunnys scraped. Isn't it obvious what needs to be done. My friend manage to get $600 for his SDK plate Sunny in 2011. Try calling the scrap dealers for quotes. My BMW E60 now 9.5yrs old, mileage only 110K and in tip top condition, but what to do? Will have to scrap/export it when the COE runs out. Export to Malaysia? Don't think it's possible, the only time I heard from friend's friend, not sure how is it possible, manage to export a 10yrs old "Honda Integra Tyre R" which I guess is a "wanted" product there.

 

Looks like most car models being scrap this year should be many sunny, camry, vios and altis. There is one carpark at west area wld temporary parked many cars which coe will expire in 1-2 months time or car already been deregistered. I noticed that many of these cars are in quite good condition, interior or exterior. Thinking if these cars are to send to scrapyard to scrap really very wasteful. Unless these cars are exported to other countries then still ok.

 

Always wondered how come no one feedback to garment or LTA that they are not being environmental friendly having such car policy that cars can only drive 10 years!

[Wt_know]

govt will tell you, you can renew another 10 years coe if you find the car is in good condition

 

 

Always wondered how come no one feedback to garment or LTA that they are not being environmental friendly having such car policy that cars can only drive 10 years!

Edited April 26, 2014 by Wt_know

[13177]

govt will tell you, you can renew another 10 years coe if you find the car is in good condition

 

 

Always win situation for garment!

[Super7]

 

 

The gharmen knows very well that if ty do away with the COE n other "taxes" on OWNING a car n increase the taxes on just driving on congested roads(ERP) during peak hours, the charges for ERP wil b very very high which wil chase most motorists away from these ERP taxed roads n cause them to b deserted n the other alternative roads wil b super jam packed every day.

 

Thats why ty spread the charges around so owning the car already u pay a huge amount of taxes n then using it u pay summore.

 

This way u can buy the car n even though u do NOT contribute to any jams u have to pay a penalty. Then those who drive during peak times wil still find using their cars still affordable.

 

But this system is unfair cos it penalises even those who DO NOT add to the jams on the roads.

 

This goes to show one thing. The total amt of taxes pple pay to own n drive their cars here are extremely high n since ty r spread out, ty dont seem so much to pple.

 

If the real motorists who cause the jams r taxed what ty sud b taxed then many wil cry fowl to the gharmen. But this is a fairer system.

 

But then maybe many wil not wan to drive during peak n the roads wil b empty n gharmen wil suffer cos ty wil b getting much less revenue from the "system".

 

This wud hv solved the problem of jams but these pple wil then end up taking public transport n it just cannot cope with the higher load of passengers.

 

So in conclusion, our transport system is flawed n the gharmen have not really done anything to really solve the problem. They r just pushing it from here to there then back here again. Just moving it round n round so sometimes cars seem slightly solved, then public transport other times seems like slightly solved.

 

In reality NOTHING HAS BEEN SOLVED BUT THE PROBLEM HAS ONLY BEEN PUSHED ROUND N ROUND.

 

 

When we really look at it, what you have said gives the true picture of what gahmen is doing to screw things up.

[13177]

Even garment did not solved the problem, nothing much that they will lose also. Cause no one can do anything to change their system and policy.

[Liuels]

Even garment did not solved the problem, nothing much that they will lose also. Cause no one can do anything to change their system and policy.

 

 

I don't know what they would do with the COE system. But something has to be done.

 

It seems a bit funny. After buy a High COE new car, you can always scrap the car if COE dropped to stop loss. Thus inside the 10 year cycle, the COE issued in some of the years would be less and less, and the COE issued in other years would be more and more.

 

There were around 61K CAT A, B, E COE issued from May 2002 to April 2003. But many of those cars scrapped during the period when COE was low. Thus from Feb 2013-Jan 2014, there were only around 22K COE issued.

 

In the end, we may face a serious problem, maybe 5 of the 10 yrs, there would be almost 0 COE, and the other 5 years, there would be a lot .

 

Edited April 26, 2014 by Liuels

[Pisces69]

 

Ya, see how it goes. I may just scrap & get my bro's car (more like my mum's Suzuki swift ) instead. 7.5yo, mileage 42k .

 

Then I just helped her friend bring her friend'd 5 yr old Beettle today for tyre rotation. mileage 34K.

 

My mum's Swift is till 3rd Quart 2016. So maybe if I take over her car & renew 10yrs, she could share the Beetle with her good friend who incidentally stays 4-5 mins drive away.

 

 

Yes explore all yr options.

 

But still u cant say what u wil do in the end cos things r still not fixed n changing.

 

I also wil hv to wait till my COE about to expire in early 2016 b4 I can decide what Im going to do.

 

Like my previous COE CoronaCD I wanted to extend the COE another 10 years but >1 year b4 it expire, the tok was COE going to shoot up cos gharmen going to cut the quota so I acted early n >1 year b4 its COE expire I traded it in for the Optra but if I had just kept it till time to scrap in 2009 the COE had actually dropped to only abt $7K cos the economy suddenly went very bad.

 

So I also now waiting to see but still hard to predict what wil happen at that time.