More COE Next Year (2014) .....

[Hosaybo]

the things to come:

 

they probably will impose stricter downpayment rules and extend to financial companies not regulated by MAS. with this, more people wil not be able to afford a car and prob scrap and return to public transport (unwillingly). this increase coe supply and reduces demand. that's why he say please wait!

[Topspin]

Agreed, more de-registered means more buyers. Cause people surely will replace their de-registered car.

 

This is what I thought also but then, how do we explain the current situation. Assuming no one is scrapping their cars today which resulted in a low number of COE available, it means everyone is happily owning one already, then where is the demand coming from to push the COE to nearly 100K?

 

Because of the price anomaly experienced today, I think it could indeed be possible that with more COE, the premium could drop even if we assume everyone who scrapped their car will eventually get a new one.

 

It goes to show, the COE premium at any one point is determined by various complex variables, including the unpredictable human behaviour/sentiment.

[Duckduck]

This is what I thought also but then, how do we explain the current situation. Assuming no one is scrapping their cars today which resulted in a low number of COE available, it means everyone is happily owning one already, then where is the demand coming from to push the COE to nearly 100K?

 

Because of the price anomaly experienced today, I think it could indeed be possible that with more COE, the premium could drop even if we assume everyone who scrapped their car will eventually get a new one.

 

It goes to show, the COE premium at any one point is determined by various complex variables, including the unpredictable human behaviour/sentiment.

 

its coz of 100% loans lah, no need to think just buy. Debt is the ultimate inflator n garmen let it go out of control until inflation high so have to react.

 

ALso coz of the low coe quota, the dealers were actively pushing up prices n causing a huge spike coz dealers need coe to complete d car sale. If cannot get coe, no car sale complete thats y last 2yrs dealers were having a field day ramping up coe like crazy n saying if u dont outbid me, u dont even get to sell your car. Then it was made worse by 100% loans so buyers told dealers just bid as high as possible or else i cant get my car.

[Tcx607]

With D high COE for d last 1 yr, I notice many old cars have vanished from the road.

This is a good sign especially those very noisy type.

Of course, many beautiful one also cannot afford to renew the PQP COE.

As a result, time is important to factor the trend of low COE during 2016-2018

Edited March 27, 2013 by Tcx607

[Thaiyotakamli]

i am surprised that they didnt consider COE for the cyclist...

[Ihave3Ballz]

More ppl scrap also mean more ppl will buy to replace. Not forget, luxury once given will becomes necessity.

 

 

Not entirely true this time.

 

With CM, half or more of this people cannot afford a new car.

Maybe 2nd-hand can.

 

That is, CM is enforced and loophole closed by gahmen

 

 

[13177]

This is what I thought also but then, how do we explain the current situation. Assuming no one is scrapping their cars today which resulted in a low number of COE available, it means everyone is happily owning one already, then where is the demand coming from to push the COE to nearly 100K?

 

Because of the price anomaly experienced today, I think it could indeed be possible that with more COE, the premium could drop even if we assume everyone who scrapped their car will eventually get a new one.

 

It goes to show, the COE premium at any one point is determined by various complex variables, including the unpredictable human behaviour/sentiment.

Could be new buyers or current buyers who change car without de-registered their current car?!

Edited March 27, 2013 by 13177

[Kenopt2]

Authority is not going to change rule so soon after implementing. This is their style. It may be reviewed in 2015. Another reason could be GE2016. COE returning to >$80,000? Not possible as it will be seen as a failure. Authority will implement more rules to make sure. Also CPI is unfavourable now. Private transport cost is one of the cause. So, all indication is pointing to more tough rules to bring down COE if needed. With more COE in 2014, this works in favour to the govt.

 

Why introduce tough rule so fast? Better to implement now when COE is high and number of COE is low at the bottom. This rule has less effect in 2014 when COE starts to move north. So you think the Govt don't know future COE numbers? I think it is all in their plan. More COE and removing restrictions in 2015 or 2016 will help in GE2016. The good feeling factor. Kinda of make heartlanders feel grateful to the govt for putting effort in letting them own a car.....

[Matrix0405]

Agree w/ above. In 2015, they will be very understanding again. Many COE + 100% financing will be back to make the sheep song song.

[Wt_know]

2014/2015 = authorized dealer huat ah!!!

 

used car dealer can go eat sai liao ...

[Watwheels]

I think they delibrately say this to ease the current high COE. So that ppl will not go into panic buying mode.

 

Remember when they announce earlier they are going to reduce the number of COE, immediately the spike in prices. And also the economy outlook does not seem to be that bad so by the time 2014 I think they will even ease the loan restrictions.

[13177]

With D high COE for d last 1 yr, I notice many old cars have vanished from the road.

This is a good sign especially those very noisy type.

Of course, many beautiful one also cannot afford to renew the PQP COE.

As a result, time is important to factor the trend of low COE during 2016-2018

Those old cars only vanished from the road when they reached their coe end life cycle, but before that still can see many of them on road. Due to high coe for the past 3 years, you can find so many "old cars" on the road, so many 6-9 year old cars.

[Little_prince]

actually the CM is good lah.

 

apart from the majority of mcf-ers. there are really of alot of ppl who dont think nor do financial planning.

 

i have a few technicians under me earning 2k a month owning cars.

 

when i ask them why they buy car when their basic is so low, their reasoning is that loan 10 yrs every month only a few hundred. use OT to cover.

this yr when company clamp down on OT they all crying liaoz.

 

haiz....

[Civic101]

I hope they will not redistribute the COEs projected to be available in 2015 - 2016 to 2014 in the name to even out the "fluctuations" but in fact to prevent low COE premium in 2015 - 2016 like in 2008 & 2009!

[Mockngbrd]

More COE + More FT = WTF

[Hosaybo]

i have a few technicians under me earning 2k a month owning cars.

 

when i ask them why they buy car when their basic is so low, their reasoning is that loan 10 yrs every month only a few hundred. use OT to cover.

this yr when company clamp down on OT they all crying liaoz.

 

this is the purpuse of the CM- basically to flush out these people and bring them out of the demand. their eventual expired COE will be return to the mkt but with high downpayment, they will not be able to enter the mkt. Hence, this will mean higher supply but reduced demand. Manage the balance well and we will see coe fluctuating at maybe 30K+- 10K.

[Timex1441]

I hope they will not redistribute the COEs projected to be available in 2015 - 2016 to 2014 in the name to even out the "fluctuations" but in fact to prevent low COE premium in 2015 - 2016 like in 2008 & 2009!

i won't be surprised if the govt ppl have in their minds a "reasonable" floor for coe prices, n i dun think they will allow tat floor to reach the 2008/2009 levels (<$20K).....there r many buttons the govt can push to correct the coe machinery

[Dark]

I hope they will not redistribute the COEs projected to be available in 2015 - 2016 to 2014 in the name to even out the "fluctuations" but in fact to prevent low COE premium in 2015 - 2016 like in 2008 & 2009!

 

Don't forget there is still some leftover over-projection to offset to prevent another bumper crop.

 

Actually might be a good idea to have a built-in damper effect in the COE formula to prevent sudden change in supply.